Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Euro and gfs (at least the ops) might be switching places. But this has always been a low confidence outlook, and I’m not holding my breath until we’re 4-5 days out, which takes us to next Tuesday-Wednesday. At least its cold and will be that way for a while. Reminds me of the 1980s when getting cold air was easy, but snow was hard to come by.
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Yeah, they’re seeing the same thing we are. Just a very low confidence outlook at this point. Let’s hope the gfs/cmc trends this morning converge and the euro caves.
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06z gfs phases the two pieces even more than 0z old run new run
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I figured, yeah. Lets hope it’s not just a blip, but a start of a trend. I think canadian has a compromise between the two camps
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Are you looking at that energy over Alberta/Montana? Its so chaotic its hard to pick out the individual pieces
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I see what you’re saying. It doesn’t have to completely phase, the NS just needs to dig enough to pick up energy from the SW. the CMC does it too. Euro completely misses by hundreds of miles, and then completely phases with a second NS wave. Drastically different solutions, very low confidence forecast.
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Looks like a huge bust for watertown. Weren’t they supposed to have 3’ otg by now?
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The key is getting that sw energy to eject early enough. Dec 8 or 9 will work, but dec 10 might be too late as the pattern relaxes
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However! The canadian ens shows 2 waves, one on 12/9 and 12/11… which tells me that geps is split between gfs and euro camps.
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0z CMC more similar to GFS than the Euro. Just a day later. Same with ens. The canadian has been doing just as well as these two so I wouldn’t sleep on the canadian.
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26
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Band is south of watertown, and it’s still above freezing (33-36) 31 and clear imby.
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To clarify your point, the dec 7 event gets quashed south but brings a lot of moisture up for the dec 11 event.
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Interesting run, yes. Mean is washed out, but there is a signal within. The op shows one of these possibilities
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My condolences.
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Are you talking about the Op or ensembles?
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All ens show a trough digging into the OH valley, which is a decent signal for a storm that might bring us snow in the dec 10-12 timeframe (12z gfs op shows this playing out) 0z EPS shows that too, look at the height lines even if the 500mb anomaly colors show neutral.
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Sprinkles. 41. Think if my elev was a few hundred feet higher, I’d have seen some wet flakes
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Yep. Our dec climo is like 2” total for the entire month.
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At least we’re seeing clippers making a comeback. Something we haven’t seen in years. And with the PV lurking nearby up top, it’s possible that these may trend south at the last minute, like those two storms last January did.
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While we can’t take the rmm forecast amplitude literally, I still think rmm forecasts have some utility where we look at multiple models/ens and look at what phases they think the mjo will be in and how quickly or slowly they cycle through. The spread gives a good idea of the uncertainty of the amplitude, which can be really noisy. Even in noisy amplitude predictions, we can get a good idea of where the mjo is going to be, phase wise, in a week or two ahead of time.
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29.8 for the low. Now 36
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We’d want that trough to either be centered over bering sea or undercut the aleutians. Either would work in getting a west coast ridge
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GEFS is similar, almost identical
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Trades may kick up a bit so we may get more of a nina signal, but still don’t think we’ll reach -0.5 ONI for an official nina. Maybe barely. So there will be other competing factors, with lots of variability and back-and-forths. Still think we moderate mid-dec, then turn back cold late dec early jan.
