Terpeast

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted. Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end.

Narrator: “Plot twist, there is no storm.”

a 50 mile shift is not much at this range and while that is certainly possible even in this case, it’s doubtful given the strong trends the opposite way.

NAM caved. It may still show 3-6” here but with the trend that amount will dwindle in the next several runs.

Well. That was… exhausting. Need to rest and turn off all screens and devices. I’m out.

Thanks, now we know what to watch for in the next runs

Tbh I never really bought into the favorable pattern going all the way to mid march. I had it going to march 1 maybe 2, before it warmed up. Now the warm up is coming a week earlier, but it may be a brief warmup. It may get cold again after that, but I don’t know how favorable that pattern would be for snow.

Probably

Do you really believe that this may happen? Two differences between now and march 2001- modeling is better, and the block is so strong. I mean, a 30-50 mile shift NW, sure. But 200-300 miles in this situation? I think that is less likely

We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately

Since NAM is a mesoscale model, maybe it’s seeing something that globals aren’t seeing wrt gulf moisture and latent heating putting the slp track north. LWX alluded to this in the afternoon AFD.

If anything 18z nam is a bit faster

63, heights tick lower across the board but vort/energy is stronger and norther. Angle of attack still more NE

18z nam 54, h5 vort angle of attack a bit more NE

Otoh, NAM doesn’t dig that much either but is way more north. So there’s that…

On both, go back 24 hr. You’ll see that the SS sw doesn’t dig as much as before

One would think models would start correcting more NW for that reason, but they’ve been going the other way instead. Maybe it’s still too soon for a NW correction.

Looking ahead… there will be a warm up the last week of feb into first few days of march, but it may be brief as mjo is slow to get through 1-2-3 and epo ridge showing signs of rebuilding

Mike Thomas at fox is giving this until tomorrow to turn around

NAM seems to have better divergence across PA/NJ, guess thats why its track is north

Honestly thought it would turn out better based on h5 leading in, but the sfc fell apart at the last minute. So im feeling what psu is feeling. Something about this feels off.

Not the reversal we wanted to see. Sorry guys

93, still light snow. Definitely slid off SE moreso than previous runs

Its more SE

84, its trying to tuen the corner