Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Hey now, that’s NSFW. There’s kids here!
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I'll try not to use the word "reload" more than once for the winter. Oh wait... shit.
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And I see a hint of a split flow pattern with a NAO block. If this holds, we can potentially cash in mid-Dec.
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Low 29 Ashburn
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I noticed that. 12z gfs only showed the warm one and no second storm.
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How does a +nao help us here? This cold map is almost entirely driven by the poleward E Pac ridge driving cold air south
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Took family out for a walk to enjoy 65-70 degree temps before they fall like a rock tonight and tomorrow.
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Could see some mood flakes, and what’s interesting is that the models show a few impulses along the SE coast in the next week or so. Maybe it’s just a blip, but it could also be a sign of what’s to come this winter whenever we get a positively tilted longwave trough centered over the US midwest.
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0.92” total. Would’ve been nice to get more, but I’ll take it.
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Death band incoming
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Big ass dry slot.
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0.6” here. Felt like we got more though. Hopefully that second round delivers.
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Winter 2022-2023 Promises Plenty of Mid Season Mayhem
Terpeast replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Very detailed, nice work. Was looking forward to your outlook and you delivered! -
Agreed. Not expecting anything east of the blue ridge anytime soon, but if we get another shot after a reload in December, I think we will get something.
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I don’t get it either. I follow his posts, but I’m seeing mixed messages.
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Yeah, that might be one of the best matches now. 1985-86 is becoming less and less of a match.
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Funnily enough, a month ago we could have said that October was the new November
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It’s possible, not holding my breath. First, the airmass has to be cold enough and climo is not there yet. Second, it would have to thread the needle since we’re not getting any help from the NAO (it’s positive on that map) I think we get a cold rain and mix/snow in the mountains
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
Read my own outlook, and don’t see much reason to change anything for now. November is off to a very warm start, and next week’s cold weather will reduce the magnitude of warm anomalies. Then the pattern I believe will relax a bit after the cold shot. Pretty confident we’ll finish the month at +2 if not much higher. Still expecting another flip to cold after Thanksgiving. -
BWI: 15” DCA: 11” IAD: 17” RIC: 6” Tiebreaker (SBY): 7”
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Ah that’s weatherbell. I was using tropicaltidbits, and it has this weird quirk when you look at a past run and then click forward or backward in the run, it defaults back to the current model run. I guess that’s why I did not see it. Either way it won’t happen.
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Muggy out when I raked the leaves and mowed the lawn. It’s raining now
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I checked the 0z gfs run and could not see anything resembling any snow anywhere close to here. I saw mostly a cold rain with snow in the appalachians
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Not sure what’s more impressive for November, breaking 80… or the nighttime low being higher than June’s average.
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Wow, that’s a pretty good look. Hope it gets close to verifying.
