Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Yeah, it’s more north-based block, which still works without playing up suppression risk. No chance of New Orleans getting 10” this time haha
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Nothing falling here. Just was out for half an hour. But cold. 34/19
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This is exactly why I keep saying we need wiggle room by being on the north side of the heaviest snows modeled a week out. We have no wiggle room left with the euro op/ens, but it’s on its own at least for now.
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Looks like we want to root for an earlier start (or the first wave to be dominant) when we still have the thermals for a most/all snow event
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I see it a tick south, but still great for us
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Possible reason why GFS went south was it trended stronger with the EPO ridge and is also flatter with the overall flow. While the euro also has that EPO ridge, it digs the trough more to the west of us allowing the storm to consolidate and/or amplify. The gfs has a few weaker waves along the flatter boundary. Both give us good results, and I think there will likely be more amplitude and less suppression in mid-February than January.
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18z had the precursor too. Just the second one went a bit south, which honestly is a decent place to be at this lead. Plenty of wiggle room.
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Going good at 165
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Lt-mod 159, heights a tick south
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Light snow starting at 156
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Good points, and yes both ens have -ao/-nao in spades
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Gefs still has it, a bit weaker but still ridgy over AK. Eps may be trying to lose the epo ridge too quickly, but we shall see with couple more days.
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Looking ahead on the overall pattern including the EPO, the GEFS has actually been doing better in the last 2 weeks and should be the favored model until verification scores flip.
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Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now.
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You're joking, right? That's a HECS signal
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Ain't she a beaut. Let's enjoy for the next 6 hours.
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The onset is only 1 week away almost to the hour!
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Wow! #lockitin
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Euro was having some issues so they’re releasing on the old schedule this run
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Just fell short of 60 before temps got smacked back down into the low 50s
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Totally fine with this. We all know it won't pan out this way verbatim. Good spot to be in actually at this range.
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Also thinking the impacts will be moderate (maybe major) in the favored far NW places, especially in the valleys. Here? Maybe more like a nice glaze on trees to pretty things up for a couple of hours, and then it'll melt off pretty quick. Still be careful out there, all it takes is one little slick spot to break a hip. Thinking 2 hour delay for Fairfax Co. Loudoun will be a tough call because we span way out west towards the blue ridge where things could get bad in the morning.
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Looks like a temporary blip. The feb 11-12 storm is there on the means, and milder air comes right after as the cold high moves offshore, then another cold air push in the 14-15 day range
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Ice ice baby
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Forecast low of 46. I’m at 36 now. Temps have been underperforming for 3 days now
