Terpeast

The fact that WPC favors the Euro over GFS over the first 3 days of the model runs gives me pause. What if the Euro is correct on handling the ULL in W Canada for the first 72 hours from now.

Here’s how WPC is weighting models for their forecast blend: “The WPC fronts/pressures was primarily based on a 40% ECMWF/20% GFS/20% CMC/20% ECENS blend for Monday and Tuesday, and then the proportion of the ECENS and GEFS means were increased going through the remainder of the week to account for the increasing model uncertainty. Future forecast updates will provide additional clarity on the eventual East Coast storm evolution and potential impacts.” This was after the 0z suite. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Yeah, that is a key player in all this. Without that thing, or it behaves differently, the whole thing falls apart and we get a 2-4er, mix, or a total whiff. I don't think we get a cutter this time, though.

I said yesterday that if the models keep showing this look today, we can start to get excited. Well...

For those of us hoping for a KU (I'll admit, I'm one of them), we have to remember that there have been only two Decembers in the last 50 years that had double digit monthly snowfall amounts at DCA. At IAD, there has only been 5 double digit Decembers. Keep expectations accordingly. (advice goes for me, too)

I don’t have access to the latest eps, but I’d compare the h5 to gefs at 144

That first low robs the real storm of its energy, but I think that’s a phantom depiction. It won’t play out like that. As long as the 500mb setup is there, I like what I see for the EC from VA to new england

Bit of a weird run because it has 2 lows, one OTS first then another off OBX. Think it’s a bit of a hiccup but no real trend

Reminds me of Jan 1996 (I won’t dare say this is happening again) because that s/w “dived” south from Canada to south of TN before the beatdown. 7 days away, so not pinning anything on this.

My bad, that one isn’t the 12/23 storm. It’s what comes after.

Yeah, no big changes. Southern s/w better defined I think

Had to look it up. NBM is basically a blend of a bunch of models? How has it been performing?

Finished with 1.76” at Ashburn

That’s a wise approach. But that’s not how this forum rolls (even though we know better)

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

Ok if models still show tomorrow what they’re showing today, then I think we are in game time.

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

About to wrap it up here at 1.6” 36F

When I dropped the kid off at daycare after a 2 hour delay, the roads were just wet, but I almost slipped on the sidewalk. Some slick spots in the coldest areas. Now 34 cold rain

And a better defined 50/50

Right at 32f. Streets look fine. Seeing some drops on trees and bushes, but I’m not gonna bother going out to see if it’s actually glaze or just wet. Moving on.

How is this peak lol..not one model gives us snow At least the models aren’t showing 70 degrees the whole holiday week. we’re talking about a really low bar here.

Should split the county in two halves anyhow

Just in, Loudoun 2 hour delay

Dare I say this evening is the peak, or close to it. Give it a couple days, then we trough. Rinse, repeat.