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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I’d say wait till the ens but I have a feeling they will move towards the op esp since op gfs seems to have latched onto a new idea
  2. Terpeast
  3. Terpeast
    18z gefs seem to be weakening the epo ridge while intensifying ao/nao. Is there an analog for that?
  4. Terpeast
    Could be that the models are underestimating the block and or overinitializing current conditions with the old pattern still in place.
  5. Terpeast
    Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped.
  6. Terpeast
    Both 12z op runs of the globals didn’t turn out good scenarios today. Hope this isn’t a sign of a trend.
  7. Terpeast
    Sleet mixed in with rain. Pellets on deck. Ashburn, 40
  8. Terpeast
    Love it
  9. Terpeast
    Obviously an op run without ensemble support is less credible than one with support. But it is still very much one of the possibilities that we cannot rule out. If it holds back and amps too much, this will be a miss for us.
  10. Terpeast
    Let’s hope the ens are more correct and the op is wrong
  11. Terpeast
    Similar to 0z gefs
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah, that was just one of the many possibilities on the table. Something that could not be said all winter.
  13. Terpeast
    Gefs clearly east with the s/w kick at 144
  14. Terpeast
    Maybe noise, but gefs trended slightly east with the vort at 120
  15. Terpeast
    You know it's getting real when Wes pops in. Good to see you in here.
  16. Terpeast
    2 ft area wide. But the usual disclaimers keep expectations in check yada yada lol
  17. Terpeast
    Good set of runs so far tonight, curious as to what the euro will do but I’m going to bed now.
  18. Terpeast
    Wow, just saw that!
  19. Terpeast
    Wacky evolution for sure. Probably won’t play out as depicted but hopefully moving closer to the right solution for us
  20. Terpeast
    That march 7-8 cutter is going to play a crucial role both upstream and downstream.
  21. Terpeast
    On march 6? That’s to be expected, imo. That cutter should absorb into and reinforce the 50/50, while the w trough begins to kick east on the 10th. Gfs moved towards the euro/cmc today
  22. Terpeast
    Don’t know about you, but that doesn’t scream cutter to me.
  23. Terpeast
    That’s the least of my worries at this point
  24. Terpeast
    Yep, what usually happens with a pattern change going into our favor is a storm that cuts and draws cold air in, and the -nao and 50/50 locks it in long enough for a few attempts at a hit. Biggest failure risk imo is not suppression, it’s that the SER/W Trough tries to run the clock out on us.
  25. Terpeast
    It looks much better to me actually, esp after the 12th and onward. I would not be surprised to see a cutter on the 7-10 time frame that reinforces the 50/50 and pushes the boundary south
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