Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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30/19. Models look a tick south but still good for 3-5 mby
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Gfs adamant on double digit totals south of dc close to RIC but the wakefield wfo isn’t having any of it.
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Toss
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Dropped to 29
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Its close but ya its snow, i dont think sleet makes it that far up. Maybe quantico or dumfries
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I think 3k is realistic with snow amounts, moreso than 12k nam
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3k has intensifying rates at around 2-3 pm with temps dropping to freezing
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3k nam has sleet making it up to DCA
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NAM 12k a solid 6-9” for dc metro
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Yep, roughly. But stickage and road caving by 4 pm imo
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At minimum 9 hours of heavy snow, 0.5-1+”/hr rates.
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Nam 12k at hour 21 is a pummeling. Let’s see what the higher res counterpart says
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Check the sounding. It’ll be snow. May not stick well at first though
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33/17
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Down to 37/18. 2 deg last hour
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39/19
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What, really? That's surprising
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the 12k NAM was definitely overdone, and I don't see much change on the 3k NAM from previous run yet. looks like 5-6" when lopping off the initial inch before dark for DC metro including IAD. This is 10 to 1
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Sticking with my first call, no reason to change it yet. 3-6" DC & NW burbs, 4-8" south till you get to EZF then mixing further south
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Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think
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Maybe noise, but looks like precip shield is more robust northward
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Even if we take out the most bullish outlier, it wouldn't change the forecast for our area.
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The HRRR and temp issues is why I went conservative! Now there is a chance that even my forecast is too bullish. Hopefully most precip happens after 4 pm and the heaviest comes overnight.
