Terpeast

This is going to be a particularly difficult winter outlook. My top analogs so far are 1972-73, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2015-16, and a couple of runner ups in 2009-10 and 1963-64. It is a loaded group, but with high bust potential being magnified by a warming world. Only thing I can say for certain is that this won’t be boring.

Here are the stats for IAD (only goes back to 1962, so '58 and 61' would not be on this list): 1962 (Dec 26 - Jan 9, max 8") 1966 (Jan 27 - Feb 4, max 14") 1967 (Feb 7 - 11, max 10") 1969 (Dec 26 - 30, max 13") 1971 (Jan 1 - 5, max 15") 1978 (Jan 20 - 25, max 9") 1979 (Feb 13 - 23, max 22") 1982 (Jan 21 - 30, max 9") 1983 (Feb 11 - 18, max 22") 1984 (Jan 20 - 24, max 8") 1987 (Jan 23 - Feb 4, max 19") 1996 (Jan 7 - 18, max 24") 2003 (Feb 16 - 22, max 18") 2009 (Dec 19 - 25, max 18") 2010 (Feb 6 - 20, max 26") 2014 (Feb 13 - 18, max 8") 2016 (Jan 23 - Feb 2, max 28") Notice that even tho we have longer gaps in these occurrences since the 80s, the max #s get gaudier.

JFM 23 would be a shade of red with nearly 4C AN. Even with light yellow or slightly AN temps JFM 24, it would feel a lot colder than last winter.

I like reading his analyses (as long as I can understand them). It just shows that nobody really knows what’s going to happen next. If we’re going to get a nina pattern this year, better for it to happen now or in the fall than in mid winter. Let’s get it over with.

Exactly. Beggars can’t be choosers

Its gotten better here with around 3.5” MTD compared to 2” in July and 1” June. But we have a long way to go before we dig ourselves out of this hole. I do think we will have a warmer and wetter than normal autumn, though.

Just as a watched pot never boils, whenever I track nothing happens. I didn’t track today, and got hosed on with that cell. 0.7” Maybe I shouldn’t track winter storms?

95.4 imby. Reminder that it’s still summer

Hey it’s all good no worries

I want my kid to see some actual snow, too. That actually accumulates! Not just snow TV that doesn't stick. I'm not all doom and gloom yet, I'm actually cautiously optimistic about this upcoming winter. And I've been working on a statistical analysis on what we can expect from future winters, and the picture being painted doesn't seem as terrible as we're making it out to be. I've used 2 methods to arrive at basically the same result, which is a 16% reduction in our average snowfall... even that seems like a lot more than what we've been getting the last 7-8 years. I keep saying that I'll post it this summer, but that's probably going to have to wait until fall. Just don't have the time.

Yeah, I didn’t intend for anyone to read as such into what I said about Dec. Nino winters tend to lean backloaded anyway. What does concern me is the warm ssts across the board. Where and how can we get enough cold air if our average 850s is -4 in mid winter, and ssts are +2-4 above normal? Pretty small margin for error there.

I’m fine with punting Dec to get a good Jan and feb, but this kind of map is exactly what I’m concerned about with ssts on fire

yeah, thanks to those pesky volcanoes, we’d lose feb 87 if it happened now

A very real possibility. Just look at the northern hemisphere sst map

Second animation, thermocline appears to be pushing up in 1+2

I think the subsurface has bottomed out for now. It might warm a bit again

Thanks, I see JJ was 0.3 while ONI was 0.8. If it's tracking 0.5 lower, then it should be ~0.8 now while ONI/3.4 are around 1.3. And look how strong the La Nina was last year according to the MEI, it peaked at -2.1. I was amazed at how strong the nina's "grip" on the atmospheric pattern last winter despite the ONI being a pedestrian ~-1.0.

I like the MEI better. Where can I get the latest values? The time series I have only goes up to April

Maybe none. I thought it would have an influence, but the correlation is 0.12 between IOD and AO, and -0.16 vs NAO. Could be a lag effect that I'm missing here. I was excited about the IOD at first yesterday when bluewave talked about the potential effect it had on the 19-20 season, but after digging into the data myself, I just don't see a slam dunk effect by the IOD.

The smoke probably suppressed temps today. IAD only made it to 94 with a forecasted high of 97. Mby only 92

The one that goes back to 1948 is still v1. I’m assuming that there is no v2 pre 1979 because it incorporates satellite data.

If I'm understanding your post correctly, you're saying that as we progress into winter (with CC) the jet and AAM both get stronger because of a stronger temp gradient between the tropics and polar region? I would think we'd actually get a "lazier" and more meridional jet stream. Isn't that what happened last winter? Just that the meridional structure didn't land where we wanted, and CA happened to get the jackpot of it. Am I misunderstanding you?

Thanks for pointing that out. Going through the monthly forecasts from now till January, it appears that METEO and ECMWF are the most aggressive with the +IOD, but all models have them peaking in Oct-Nov, then backing off in December to a neutral/weak positive by January. This is pretty consistent with a mild December / start to the winter, then turning colder into Jan-Feb.

I don’t pay attention to the BoM model due to its known warm bias