Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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3k nam has sleet making it up to DCA
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NAM 12k a solid 6-9” for dc metro
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Yep, roughly. But stickage and road caving by 4 pm imo
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At minimum 9 hours of heavy snow, 0.5-1+”/hr rates.
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Nam 12k at hour 21 is a pummeling. Let’s see what the higher res counterpart says
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Check the sounding. It’ll be snow. May not stick well at first though
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33/17
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Down to 37/18. 2 deg last hour
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39/19
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What, really? That's surprising
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the 12k NAM was definitely overdone, and I don't see much change on the 3k NAM from previous run yet. looks like 5-6" when lopping off the initial inch before dark for DC metro including IAD. This is 10 to 1
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Sticking with my first call, no reason to change it yet. 3-6" DC & NW burbs, 4-8" south till you get to EZF then mixing further south
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Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think
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Maybe noise, but looks like precip shield is more robust northward
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Even if we take out the most bullish outlier, it wouldn't change the forecast for our area.
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The HRRR and temp issues is why I went conservative! Now there is a chance that even my forecast is too bullish. Hopefully most precip happens after 4 pm and the heaviest comes overnight.
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First and probably final call unless things change dramatically. Last time I was too bullish, so this time I'm being conservative.
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Thats what I was thinking. Commanders could also have beaten the Chiefs, though it would have been a much closer game for them.
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And the north vs south camps are getting closer to each other. Before they were 50-75 miles apart, now only 25-40 miles. We’re in a good spot I think
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It also appears to me that the timing is mainly an overnight event. If we get the rates, it could pile up pretty easily.
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3k nam looks good too, 12k maybe a bit overdone but they’re not that far apart.
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Nam gets northern folks in the game too
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Halftime show already over? Didn’t realize. Was too busy reading the storm thread
