Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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The qbo and solar connection to our weather has always looked very weak to me. Until I dive into the data and run my own analyses, I’m open to the possibility of it being not as clear cut as you make it out to be.
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This is really interesting… it seems for a solar max, we would prefer a westerly QBO based on that map. What was the source of this map, and what data did they use? I want to verify this myself. If you can’t get the source, no worries - I can try to use publicly available data from NOAA.
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WeatherBell CFS maps are wrong. Apparently it has algorithm issues. @GaWx has been harping on this for months.
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2009-10 was a neutral PDO on average after a long duration -PDO, fwiw
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51 for the low again
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Impressive, considering that it’s been 26 years since the last time this happened
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51 so far
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Forecast low for mby (between IAD and JYO) is 49. It will be interesting if that actually happens. Last time we got sub-50 in August was Aug 20, 1998 when IAD dropped to 47
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Same. Low of 52.9
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59.7 now imby
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74 for the high, now 68. Loving it! Actually a bit chilly
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Whiff
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One might argue that the PDO went negative after the 1998 super nino, and stayed mostly negative except for a few years here and there. Or it could also be argued that it went negative after the 2016 super nino with a special flavor being the Japan marine heat wave. Depends on how you want to slice it…
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All ensembles want to bring a wave of higher PWAT anomalies across the keys and northern Caribbean around Aug 23-24. Question is whether it organizes into a tropical low.
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Almost got split, but got an efficient downpour that lasted 20 minutes. 0.41” the next town 3 miles north of me got absolutely hosed…
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Right on my doorstep. Come on, push east
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If it were November and the atmosphere/sst patterns look similar to today, I’d give it a 60% chance of a shutout and a 40% chance of eeking out an advisory/low-end warning event (of which we had 2 last January) during a brief -epo period. Beating climo? Fuggedaboutit. Too soon though. We’ll see how the tropical season pans out and how the MJO behaves in October. Either way, the upslope regions (Deep creek, snowshoe, etc) should have better winters than last year and even the year before.
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Agreed. We were robbed there by something like the butterfly effect. I remember a few model runs showing foot-plus snows in the MA before we got rug pulled.
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You’ll be back. See you soon
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
Terpeast replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
That’s actually a reasonable outlook. Cold & mild in the right places for a La Nina winter and/or -PDO regime though i would lean much drier across the south and EC -
Yeah, i see a warm blob moving east from that marine heatwave into the GoA / west NA coast. Winter 24-25 looks ugly af but would be happy to get a 1-2 week period of wintry weather in either Jan or Feb, most likely Jan. Feb will probably torch
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Low of 61. Splendid morning out there!
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We went to the greenbriar lake NW of frederick. We picked a perfect day to go… 70s, cool, no humidity, no mosquitoes, and the water was nice to swim as in not cold because of the June-July wave. So many people came, they cut off access to the park by 10 am… we got there at 9:55, so lucky
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Man its steamy out right now. Lower humidity can’t come this weekend fast enough
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2.5” total for the event
