Eduardo

Need to shove that east and re-establish "the blob." We're really missing it!

Awwww no way. Anthony's eternal optimism is genuine and I envy it!

Yeah this is kinda where I'm at right now too. Need to see some convincing sign that West-Coast trough is going to either relax or pull westward a bit. I don't think it'd take much to put us in the game, but for the next two weeks, we're not in it. Still wondering whether that cold pool west of Ecuador does us some good before the winter's out. I might be more inclined to say yes if that other cold pool east of the Aleutians weren't so robust. The lesson here is that it's really tough to overcome a crumby PAC.

Me either, although I do wonder how much the typhoon might serve as a fly in the ointment...

Might get deleted. but I couldn't resist. Apologies in advance to the mods. And, @snowman19, it's seriously all outta love; this place wouldn't be the same without you.

Is the typhoon just skewing the index or is it actually affecting the MJO itself (and, hence, the index is reflecting that)?

Insane!

Following this closely as well. That dark blue stripe west of Ecuador certainly can't be a bad thing for us winter weather lovers, right?

I wouldn't expect a 10-11 style flip in the PAC given the SST profile this year. But 09-10 shows that, if the ATL cooperates, even the slightest bump of that western trough can put us in business. Granted, that was a Niño, but the point remains. Solid posts, as always!

That's a tad prettier for sure (though, like you said, it's a D10 OP run). Flex the NAO on that map a bit more and your SWFE's become timely redevelopers. Some potential in this pattern, but I don't think we are where we need to be just yet. Lifting out that troughiness in the West would be ideal.

Ninja'd me, Chris. I was gonna say: "Looks like a clipper pattern." That RNA is really the fly in the ointment. So close to serviceable though!

I don't think it's about luck here (except insofar as it'd require massively good luck to get snow down to the coast). It's more a matter of pattern recognition. I can see us maybe getting a few slushy inches before a changeover. For me, the upcoming pattern has a very mehhhh 08-09 feel to it. Lil more -NAO help might give us what we need, but it's a close call.

Nada here in the city. Didn't even see any moodflakes.

Such a solid post! I am skeptical about us moving into the favorable MJO phases or experiencing an extended wintry period this year, but the fact that we are beginning in Phase 6 gives me a tad more hope. One question that's been on my mind that I've posed in my own regional forum: Wouldn't those those anomalously low SSTs off the coast of western South America have to serve us well at some point (even if the NPAC is pure suckage)?

I'd love to see it, but I'm skeptical. You'd also have to do something about that pesky -PNA before a -EPO can lean on the SE ridge too. You'd think that the pool of anomalously cold SST near western S. America would have to serve us well at some point though, even if the NPAC looks like (not-so) hot garbage.

Yeah it’s pretty meh, as advertised. Need that AK ridge to shift eastward and poleward a bit.

Oh yeah NPAC and PDO regions are pure trash right now and those are the main pattern drivers. Seems that, over the past decade or so, blobs vs. “inverse blobs” in the NPAC have played a bigger role than ENSO. Anything to that? In terms of sensible weather, it’s looking pretty boring for those of us that love deep winter patterns. I’m still confident that we’ll luck our way into some fun this year, but it’d take something pretty monumental like a SSW that favors our side of the pole to dislodge that ugly blue ball sitting up near the pole.

Mehh. Maybe. It'd certainly improve our chances from slim to less slim. However unlikely, it is possible, for example, to get a nicely-timed HP to scootch across Quebec and get the job done. Probable? No. Possible? Sure!

Based on that map, I'd conclude that the Niña is east-based (or at least east-weighted), yet I'm hearing it described as "basin-wide." What am I missing?

I remember that winter being incredibly frustrating. I think our snowfall up here was roughly average, but I remember it consisting of small snow-to-rain events. Just bad luck?

Ah this is one of the only subjects on which we part ways, Chris. I live for face-burning cold in deep winters. It’s a source of both personal pride and social ostracism.

Barfffff. I've seen enough. First two-and-a-half weeks of the month are toast!

Honestly, it's looking pretty dismal for the next few weeks (and possibly beyond) unless we manage to get some ATL blocking. True, it's only December 1st, but I'd really like to see this turn around sooner than later. I mean, that's about as bad a look as you can ask for if you like cold and snow.

It's all outta love, man!

I don’t know if I’d call it panic, but the guidance is looking pretty unfriendly for pre-Xmas cold and snow over the past few days. Reality bites sometimes. I still think we’ll get our chances between boring periods.