tamarack

From the GYX afternoon AFD: The main concern will be the potential for additional heavy rain late Friday and Friday night. At this time it looks that the bulk of the heavy rain from Elsa will pass over the waters into southeast New Hampshire and the coastal plain of Maine while the heavy rain from Thursday night looks to be centered over the mountains. Hoping there's a decent amount of RA in between.

Being pedantic, I think it's tinker's dam, otherwise worthless material placed to keep the solder from running off before it hardens.

What is that? Since the bolt that blew apart the fir tree behind the house last March and another at <1/2 mile a few minutes later, we've not had a strike within 3 miles. Since April 1 we've had 8.2" RA and over 90% has been synoptic. Convection has been in hiding.

I miscounted the no-12"+ winters - it's 9 of 23. 6 winters have failed to have a 10"+ and 05-06 peaked at 5.9". Frequencies - 1", 4" and 6" are calendar-day totals while 10" and greater are storm totals: Avg. Most(yr) Least(yr) 1"+ 21.7 32 (07-08) 13 (15-16) 4"+ 7.4 14 (07-08) 3 (15-16) 6"+ 4.0 9 (00-01, 0 (05-06) (07-08) 10"+ 1.7 5 (13-14) 0 (6x) 12"+ 1.1 3 (00-01, 0 (9x) 16-17, 17-18) 15" 0.7 3 (00-01, 0 (15x) 16-17) 20" 0.3 2 (16-17) 0 (18x) You really do well on the bigger storms. At 1" you have about 40% more (nearest 10%), at 4" it's 60%, 6" is up to 80% and the 10" and greater it's more than twice my frequency. No surprise for a spot that averages nearly 70% more per snow season.

Co-worker in my NNJ days had a Gordon retriever that at first was excited when Bill touched off the shotgun. Next July 4th he had friends over for a party and one lit a pack of 2" crackers and tossed it off the porch, not knowing the dog was sleeping underneath. Next time Bill took Missy up into the field and fired the gun, it was panic speed all the way home - totally wrecked the dog for hunting. My Lab mix hates thunder - was still quivering 45 minutes after the super close tree blaster near home last March. The pops and bangs this weekend didn't seem to bother her, though most were distant. Same for when someone emptied a few handgun clips Saturday in the logyard about 250 yards away.

Eight of 23 winters have failed to produce a 12" storm, including the most recent 3 - first time having consecutive winters w/o a "footer" and now a threepeat. Yesterday's event dropped 0.88" - more would've been nice but the slow and steady allowed maximum value for a modest total.

Storm total 0.88" - don't need to water the garden today. Sandy River came up 2" but also isn't setting record flows though still well below 25th percentile. After 2 consecutive days with max 56 (3 if one ignores the cheap evening high recorded for 7/2) got down to 42-43 this AM. 3rd straight morning with an AM fire in the stove, burning the low value fir from a tree that fell last fall.

A other half inch or so in the gauge (estimated from 20 yards) adding to the 0.30" recorded at 7 AM. Might approach an inch or at least reach the 0.95" from Memorial Day weekend. Nice slow soaker.

That's likely part of the story, though Maine was never more than about 1/3 cleared and by 1970 was back up to 90% forest cover. However, the current co-op site may be getting some influence from trees that are not as far from the instruments as they were 30 years ago. (The critters keep growing, upward and sideways, the latter the potential culprit.)

Couldn't get anything from the west or south, but now from the east? Had 0.30" by 7 AM and hoping the bright echoes over the BGR area hold together long enough to add a good bit. (GYX not optimistic.)

Radar suggests a tall wall along the ME/NH border.

That 100+ for Toronto looks similar (in shape, not precise years) to the local long-term, 1893 on, co-op in the W. Maine foothills. Farmington has reached 100 or more 14 times. Seven came 1893-97 and based on 3 other stations 30-40 miles distant I think their siting may have been problematic. The co-op reached triples 5 times in 1911 including 4 within 8 July days, the period in which all 3 NNE states set their current hottest temps. Since 1911 only 2, 100 on 6/29/1944 as CAR set its all time high of 96 (on 6/28. Farmington's 7 AM obs included the previous afternoon) and 101 on Hot Saturday 1975 (recorded as 8/3: again, 7 AM obs.) They've topped 95 only once since then, 98 on6/20/1995, and haven't reached even 95 since Sept. 2002.

Met summer rather than calendar, but Farmington co-op reached 27 last year on June 1, tying their coolest June morning, records back thru 1893. That said, 21st century record minima are quite scarce; next most recent is the 39 on 8/20/2008.

Moved north.

0.04" since 7 AM yesterday, all coming by 9 AM. Constant mist since about 3 PM yesterday has failed to crack the 0.01" threshold. Crummy cloudy cool with just enough moisture to keep grass and foliage wet while the garden soil gets drier, about as contrary wx as I could imagine. Veggie leaves mildewing while their roots are drying out? Total of 3.12" May 1 forward, 33% of average. It's only weather.

The decrease in contrast is a bit harder for me to read, though not a serious problem. If my eyes were 40 years younger I'd probably not care. And the contrast seems to have improved somewhat since I first noted the new format yesterday.

Fighters, too. My only porgy encounter was over 60 years ago, can't recall whether it was off Long Branch or in Sandy Hook bay. Prior to that my only saltwater catch had been lingcod, which "fight" like a sand-filled sock. Porgy strength reminded me of bluegills, but the biggest sunny I ever caught was shy of 9" and weighed maybe 5 oz. Oz for oz bluegills seem as strong as anything I've had on a hook. Boost that to 12-15" and 1-2 lb and it really puts a bend in the rod. (And as you said, great on the table.)

From GYX AFD: With the upper low moving toward New England and the surface low passing east of Cape Cod, expecting a return of showers tomorrow, mainly for southern areas. This round of precipitation should be much lighter than today with the deeper moisture no longer available, but the upper low should provide plenty of lift for showers to develop. I think I've heard this "mainly for southern areas" song before, and "much lighter" than 1/3" doesn't sound too promising.

One stands in awe.

How much yesterday? (0.01" yesterday here, 0.33" today with some sprinkles currently from the next batch, which looks less promising than 2-3 hours ago.)

Got my one-year badge about an hour ago (joined in 2010) and "Posting Machine" just now for 500+ posts (currently a bit over 11k). Playing awards catch-up?

Total up to 0.33". Just cloudy at 11:15 with a nice summery 53°. Was 63 at my 9 PM obs last evening and this afternoon won't get close to there, so another of the many cheap highs.

Timing belt goes and it's all stop. We had that phenomenon 3 times with our used Subaru Loyales. First time it was at 59k (Manual said replace at 60) and furtunately my wife was on the 400' development road and coasted into the driveway. 2nd time, at 117k(!) was not as happy - was on 295 in Freeport and my wife had to climb over the wire cattle fence that the Feds (I guess) mandate along interstates, so she could borrow a phone to call AAA. (Obviously pre-cell) When that rig got to 170 we were able to actually drive it to the shop. Traded the car at 205k - still running well but AC died in early August 2002, just prior to 8 days of high 80s/low 90s. The replacement had 59k and we specifically asked about the timing belt, answer was "just got replaced". 25k later it broke a half mile from our house. My daughter hoofed it back home and I then towed it a mile to our regular mechanic place. They were totally confident the belt had been the original, made us feel good all over. Not the only time we've been lied to at an auto dealer.

A whopping 0.29" overnight, biggest event since Memorial Day. Looks like more is blossoming in VT (he said hopefully).

A few miles north of there had a hailstorm that defoliated several thousand acres, with some debarking as well, in late August 2007. Hail 4" deep with runoff-piled chunks still 2' deep 24 hours later. House in Rome village had damage such that insurance paid for new roof, windows and siding. Wednesday's microburst dropped trees on several parked vehicles, and a woman from one is now on life support.