tamarack

30 minutes ago radar looked filled in from overhead to a long ways upstream, albeit with RA-. Just looked again and Poof! - nothing between here and AFN. That 0.50" model output I noted a couple minutes ago is more likely to be 0.05", if that.

90 minutes of occasional dripping (not dz) so far, adding up to "T". Missed out completely last evening as well, only the unforecast "Little Shower That Could" yesterday morning has averted a total failure so far. GFS has about 1/2" between now and 03z for both AUG and RUM. Seeing would be believing; radar seems to shred a bit as it approaches here.

Hope it's a spasm rather than a disk - initial pain probably similar but far briefer consequences. I've only had the former but my first one - age 34 and after a month in a walking cast thanks to the woods wreck (pickup vs. log truck, predictable results.) Probably the worst pain of my life. Next morning I spent about 15 minutes traveling the 20' to the commode, 3 or more firm points of contact at all times, in terror from the possibility of an unexpected move. Because it was muscles only, the pain was becoming significantly less by Sunday PM (spasm hit Friday PM) and was essentially gone by Tuesday. Subsequent spasms were less acute but lasted longer.

Not on a bike, but when I was 5 a friend and I were scrambling on the "cliffs" in a neighbor's front yard when I slipped backwards and fell about 5', landing forehead-first on a sloping rock. Wound was small but bled "like the Red Sea" (friend's description). No obvious long-term effects, though others might disagree. On a sadder biking note, about 5 years ago I reconnected thru FB with my best friend (ages 8-22) after nearly 50 years. He moved to Idaho shortly after finishing college and at reconnect time he was dominating the state's age-class mountain bike races. A couple months after the reconnect he took a bad fall at speed while practicing, resulting in serious brain damage. Then cascading issues culminating with a spinal cord infection took his life.

PF's "warm wind" post: BTV 88/69 and gusting almost 40mph out of the south. Feels like the Caribbean when it’s around 90F and the flags are straight out in a hairdryer wind. From my report of the forestry peer-review trip of Sept. 31-Oct. 1, 2005 We were heartened by the rain having nearly stopped while we dined. It was replaced by a strangely warm (for this latitude) strong wind, tropical air transported north by the remains of the hurricane. The first day was a downpour from the remnants of Katrina. Then we dined at the hilltop restaurant in St. Agatha. After dinner, about 9 PM, was when the unnaturally warm wind was noted - temp was probably near 70, especially mild after a day of 50s RA+. Normal temp there on 9/31 is about 56/36.

And one by GYX north/NE from Jackman, though that one may have expired. Edit: It's expired, though the cell still has some strong echoes as it moves past Seboomook Lake.

Had a TOR warning north of Jackman. Still some 55-60 dbz pixels when I looked 10 minutes ago but earlier there were shades of 70.

I think it was 6 in the same week earlier this month, all on inland waters.

Yesterday the PoP for Tuesday was 80% at my ZIP. It's now 30%, climbing to 40% Tuesday night (when I except full-on CAA and beaucoup dry air.)

Had 5 minutes of that just before 10 this morning, probably the heaviest RA here since last summer. Glad to get the 0.27" because forecasts are continually reducing what to expect before the CAA ends the chances. There's a realistic chance this whole bunch goes thru here dry, save for that morning surprise.

Ground zero! When I smack one there all her chums come to the funeral, and of course after the service they expect a meal. Only ones and twos so far here, and nothing outside of Aroostook has approached the dozens (seemed like hundreds) that would torment me in the Allagash/St. John woods. While high 80s and beyond usually discourage the black flies (1996 the notable exception) I've never seen it too hot for deerflies. Maybe they're use to it because of where they come from?

Little shower ended with a 5-minute downpour, total 0.27". That patch of rain, now mostly dissolved, acted like Rt 2 was its monorail. Very uncommon.

Sure was, now fixed. Thanks. Currently in the endgame of a totally unexpected little shower, might get a tenth or so. More baby steps.

Earliest flakes, accum., 1"+ 98 11/3 11/17 12/8 99 10/4 11/10 11/13 00 10/9 10/29 10/29 (6.3" 29-30, high on 29: 31°) 01 10/31 11/1 11/29 02 11/1 11/1 11/4 03 10/22 10/23 12/6 (24" 6-7 BOOM!) 04 11/21 11/21 12/7 05 10/23 10/25 10/25 06 10/23 12/7 12/8 07 11/8 11/20 12/3 08 10/29 11/25 11/25 09 10/13 11/5 11/6 10 10/22 10/31 11/26 11 10/29 10/29 10/30 (4.5" 29-30, Octobomb was forecast 12-16 here) 12 11/5 11/8 11/8 13 11/10 11/10 12/2 14 11/1 11/2 11/14 15 10/18 11/23 12/29 16 10/25 11/21 11/25 17 11/10 11/16 12/9 18 10/13 10/27 10/27 19 10/25 11/8 11/11 20 10/26 11/3 11/25 Avg 10/27 11/9 11/22 Med. 10/26 11/8 11/25 OCT 15 6 3 NOV 8 16 12 DEC 0 1 8 Never had 1"+ w/o an earlier T/0.1"+. Closest was 2011.

In the early 1980s we made several trips down I-93 then on to my brother's [then] home in Milford, MA. By mid-June it would look like winter from MHT south, only the odd ash tree escaping the caterpillars. Hardwoods would usually set a new crop of leaves by midsummer and pines often had viable buds for survival but hemlocks were one and done.

Day 9, lol. Cake yesterday and cake tomorrow but no cake today.

O's hit 6 HR, all solo.

TS estimate was off a bit, in the right direction - had 0.18" not 0.15", so 0.26" for the date and 0.45" for the month.

Our gusty little TS grew up and is now warned from Gardiner to Newport (about 60 mi.) and points east, for winds gusting to 60 and quarter-size hail.

We rarely get siggy wind from TS but the one that just passed thru here 2:45-2:55 had gusts that must've been well up into the 30s. Didn't hear anything break but seeing some more horizontal fir on the woodlot would not be surprising. Minimal thunder, nothing closer than 3-4 miles, maybe another 0.15" as estimated from 70' west of the Stratus. Baby steps, and a chance (slight?) for some more today.

A bit better than the 0.08" that fell here 6:30-7:30 this AM.

Earliest flakes, earliest measurable: 98 11/3 11/17 99 10/4 11/10 00 10/9 10/29 (6.3" 29-30, high on 29: 31°) 01 10/31 11/1 02 11/1 11/1 03 10/22 10/23 04 11/21 11/21 05 10/23 10/25 06 10/23 12/7 07 11/8 11/20 08 10/29 11/25 09 10/13 11/5 10 10/22 10/31 11 10/29 10/29 (4.5" 29-30, Octobomb was forecast 12-16 here) 12 11/5 11/8 13 11/10 11/10 14 11/1 11/2 (0.5", forecast was 4-8) 15 10/18 11/23 16 10/25 11/21 17 11/10 11/16 18 10/13 10/27 19 10/25 11/8 20 10/26 11/3

Only July failed to have at least catpaws there, though 7/31/78 had a frost. We were at Allagash Bible Camp at 625' along the St. John on July 3-4, 1982 and both days had highs in the 60s with destructive sunshine that produced very chilly afternoon showers, especially on the 4th when a heavier shower brought enough cool air to drop the temp well down the 40s, maybe even upper 30s. Would not surprise me if there had been flakes above 1000' up in the woods, though no one reported any that I know of.

Looks a lot better than mine. I have 2 sheets 10x4 feet of 30-mil black plastic, each with 12 pre-cut round holes, that I use for peppers, tomatoes and the odd cucurbit. My dad bought them in the 1980s and other than one corner he hit with the tiller, they function the same as when I inherited them in 1994. The wind a couple days back moved the tomato sheet despite it having stakes in holes on both ends and several rocks. 5 of my 6 supersweet 100s were crushed (had grown from 6" to 12-15" in the 10 days since outplanting) and the spaghetti squash was also flattened. One tomato looks totally dead and I carefully slid plastic and plants to bring the other 4 and the squash back into the sun, then gave them a good drink yesterday right after the fix attempt. 0.08" downpour this AM wasn't much but anything helps. Oddly, the sheet with peppers wasn't moved, though it's to windward from the other and anchored in the same way.

We had slushy flakes on 9/14/77 at 535' in Fort Kent during a cold coastal (47/35; 1.62"). The old Casey Brook Road, logging road heading south from the SE Public Lot in Allagash, was blocked by hundreds of saplings bent across the road by 1-2" paste at 1000-1200'. We also saw slushy flakes at 970' in the back settlement on a sun&shower day, 8/28/82 (54/35; T/T).