Jebman

We need you! I was thinking about jumping off the Ledge just because the Reaper thinks he can retire! DO NOT seriously consider coming back! COME THE FOOK BACK NOW! You got Reaping to do! And I had better see downright DEMONIC stuff from the Reaper! This had better be the most devilish scariest reaping season ever! Use verses from the satanic bible if you have to! I want fear, fright, demonic, hellish stuff! I want your very WORST, REAPER! This is ridiculous that you have waited THIS LONG to REAP! NO MERCY! NO MERCY! Get your a$$ back here as the Reaper! Make the Greater Tribulation look like the Second Coming of Christ! We want a very devilish Reap Season! This has been the worst, HOTTEST Mid Atlantic "winter" in the past ten million years! You have millions of weather weenies to REAP! You had better get back here and do your job! If you dont, I WILL JUMP, hit the snowless ground and splatter blood, guts and bloody bones all over the ground! Start a brand new demonic Reaper topic. I DEMAND the very WORST you can conjure up! You have got millions to REAP and you had better be REAPING! Use the Avern alphabet if you can! https://omniglot.com/conscripts/avern.htm#:~:text=Avern is a transformed English,that give them their power. We demand REAL frightening demonic depictions! Some real devilish powers wouldnt hurt! If you are gonna be the Reaper, you are gonna do this right.

Freezing rain is becoming moderate. Ice is piling up. Some of the returns on standard radar are outright orange, 50+ dbZ. If most of that accretes, Central Texas may be in serious trouble tonight into Wednesday Feb 1.

Reaper. YOU NEED TO REAP, right now! Get out that damn sickle and start Reaping! Reapers dont retire. They are Eternal! Now get out there and DO YOUR JOB!

Reaper, Where art thou when we really need you?

We have a Winnah

February WILL be Rocking in the Mid Atlantic! Lots of snow incoming!

I heard you're going to get an inch of snow tonight! Definitely get out and jebwalk in it, and get the shovels out and dig the snow off the sidewalks and pile it up on the north sides of sunlight-blocking objects! Get strategic about this, pile up whatever snow you get! #SaveTheSnowpack

So far main roads are not bad. But the deck is an ice rink, you can see ice all over the trees and on just about every elevated object, and the wood steps are very dangerous. I damn near took one hell of a pratfall last night while I was trying to get an ice reading. Light freezing rain continues and a lot more of it on the way. Still expecting Brobdingnagian amounts of ice thru Thursday morning.

Temp in Buda is 30 degrees. There's a nasty northerly breeze, laden with freezing drizzle. The entire back deck has become a world-class ice rink. Its icing up worse and worse, and the WSW has been extended into THURSDAY morning, and more counties to our southeast have been added to the WSW as well. NWS continues to insist that we will get a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch of ADDITIONAL ice accretion on top of what has already fallen and affixed itself to many surfaces here. Standard radar is showing a large area of freezing drizzle that has no back edge at all. It just keeps on undulating, kind of like the snow shield did on Jan 6,7,8 of 1996 over the Mid Atlantic. Rainshowers are embedded within this large area of FZDZ, and these showers are also freezing on contact. The water in the bird baths is also freezing up.

Is it ever gonna snow again? The answer is, It will. This winter. All over the Mid Atlantic. It is going to be plowable and eminently shovelable.

I want you guys to get a lot of snow SO BAD. I used to live there. I know how it feels.

Paleocene I hope you stay very safe, and that you also get smacked with about 30 inches of snow right in your own backyard, and that the entire Mid Atlantic gets destroyed by snow as well. You guys are DUE, wayyyyyyyy OVERDUE for several major massive BECS! What needs to happen there is a slow moving massive Miller A, in a massively BLOCKY pattern, that goes stationary, and the entire Mid Atlantic, and your backyard, get stuck in a snow TROWAL for about nine days. Then a Siberian Express arrives with MORE snow then it just blows around.

Here's to hoping. So far, our luck is in. temp is UP, to 34, we are two whole degrees ABOVE freezing, isolated glaze on a few elevated objects BUT the drizzle has been very light. Dallas has been hit hard by steady frzra all day. Roads are fine so far. There have been numerous instances where rain was forecast and it missed Buda. I am hoping and praying this is one of them! The forecast is still foreboding with one half inch to three quarters inch of ice but so far we've done quite well in the Luck department.

Paleocene, there is no frackin' need for that hot dog right now. This is a BAD BAD situation for us Texans. Even with a quarter inch of ice, its BAD as hell is hot.

I thought it was BAD, here in Texas. It's even WORSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just got the bad news. There is a very real possibility of as much as THREE FOOKIN' QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE accretion. This is SO DAMN BAD, that I need about a thousand of Bob Chill's yuge FACES right now. Its down to 32 degrees. The wind is steady northerly at 12 mph, with gusts to 24. It feels like 17 degrees. This is not a good day for a jebwalk. Not when you are an OLD MAN like me. I am not 23 any more. I am 59 in Morch. If I dont fall and get killed in this crazy insane storm first, or freeze to death in a power outage. It is a distinct possibility. This isnt intriguing, it is pretty scary. It has been really nice knowin' you guys. It's been an honor. There is no way out of this and Central Texas is about to be destroyed. I hate ice.

How did you know lol?

THIS, IS VERY, VERY BAD. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 This sort of thing is routine for N. Va. But down here in south central Texas, it could become a catastrophe. We don't use anything for power in our homes except ELECTRICITY. Because of that, many Texans are extremely vulnerable and Power outages will be expected. I am accustomed to 60s/50s weather and even mid 70s with low 60s dewpoints, IN JANUARY. It was 75/63 only 12 hours ago and I was beside myself with pure JOY! Its routine down here and I have come to love it with all my heart. When the power goes out we wont have anything including WATER. Models are trending colder and colder and colder sooner with earlier and earlier onset of freezing precip, in the form of dreaded freezing drizzle and light frzra. There, of course, will be NO latent heat release. Branches will fall, smashing homes and cars and the POWER will fail and many people will be vulnerable to freezing to death. We are NOT accustomed to cold weather down here, and I am not the same winter crazy person I used to be in Northern Virginia. I yearn for March and the onset of steady, moisture-laden Gulf southeasterlies bringing warm, humid upper 60s dewpoints back into Buda. It is the start of the World Famous Growing Season down here! But not this week. 000 FXUS64 KEWX 300924 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 324 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... ...Significant Ice Storm Today Through Wednesday Across the Hill Country and into portions of the I-35 corridor... ...Hazardous to Very Hazardous Travel Impacts And Power Outages Are Expected... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Very shallow cold air continues to funnel southward across the region where temperatures as of 2 AM CST range from the mid 30s across the Hill Country into the low to mid 60s closer to the Rio Grande nearest the front. Cold air advection will continue with moderate northerly winds where the freezing line will continue to inch southward with time this morning. The Hill Country and the Southern Edwards Plateau will fall below freezing near or a little after sunrise with the freezing line continuing to advance south into and across portions of the I-35 corridor from today into Tuesday. Some locations, especially within the Hill Country are possible of remaining below freezing through the duration of this event into the long term forecast period. Wind chills will also remain in the 20s for most with some upper teens across the Hill Country. Temperatures across our Southern Counties will likely bottom out and hold from the mid 30s into the 40s. Light precipitation and drizzle will break out across the region from this morning into today with increasing isentropic lift from warmer south-southwesterly winds aloft over the aforementioned shallow cold layer at and near the surface. Icing concerns from freezing rain/drizzle begins as soon as the mid-morning for areas that are already sub-freezing. The icing concerns expands today as the freezing line continues to make additional progress south and east, including into portions of the I-35 corridor and the Austin metro area. Activity should not be completely continuous but do expect several rounds of precipitation during the short term forecast period. Latest hi-res models show a temporary lull could develop sometime this evening before ramping back up into early Tuesday morning. With several rounds of precipitation anticipated along with continued uptick in the NAM/HRRR/HREF members on ice accumulations, the Winter Storm Warning was expanded eastward to include portions of the region east of I-35. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued across the next tier of counties as well where lighter icing up to a tenth of an inch can be expected, including the San Antonio metro area. Highest ice accumulations through Wednesday will be expected from the Hill Country into the Austin metro area where a quarter to half inch of ice will be possible. Amounts to the east I-35 within the warning area could receive slightly lower amounts from a tenth to three tenths of an inch. Travel could become hazardous by as early as midday over portions of the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau, and by the afternoon and the evening commute for portions of the I-35 corridor, including Austin. Travel conditions further deteriorate and non-emergency travel becomes discouraged across the warning area. Power line and tree branches likely become weighted down by accumulating ice, resulting to power outages as well across the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory areas. Across the southern areas of the region that are to remain above freezing through the duration of the short term period should see continued cold rain and perhaps an occasional embedded elevated thunderstorm. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 The short term weather continues into Tuesday night and Wednesday. A shallow (around 1,000 feet) cold airmass is overrun by a warm moist airmass above. Weak mid level impulses move along an upper level jet ahead of an upper level trough. Above seasonal normal moisture levels with PWs around an inch or so will be in place. Periods of isentropic to larger scale forcing are expected to produce rounds of rain showers. Weak elevated instability shown on forecast soundings makes for only isolated thunderstorms. The main forecast issue remains precipitation rates and the impact on temperatures and the extent and duration of freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Should the precipitation remain lighter, then temperatures will stay colder allowing for freezing rain/freezing drizzle to persist longer into Wednesday and perhaps Wednesday night, as seen in the NAM/CMC. However, should precipitation turn heavier, then latent heat release warms temperatures leading to all rain. For now, will go cooler on Wednesday and maintain freezing rain/freezing drizzle for the Hill Country and adjacent areas south to US 90. Total ice accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected in the Hill Country and Austin area with lesser amounts south to near US 90. The upper level trough moves overhead on Thursday with the showers and storms ending from southwest to northeast. Fair skies and cool to cold temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday, Another cold front and upper level trough move through during the weekend, however, lack of moisture depth will preclude any precipitation.

Okay folks, I know what I said the other day about NE Corridor snowstorms being pedestrian, but I gotta LOVE Jay Peak right now, check out Tim Kelley's weather forecast! https://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/snow-report-maps/weather-tim-kelley UPDATED JANUARY 27TH, 2023 On a scale of 1 to 10 - we are at Stoke Level 11. "All systems are go." The snow is "pretty pretty pretty pretty good." All that TK 'Hype' was not Hyperbole. In fact, my snow forecast did end up being "conservative." On January 20, the "my math" part estimated 37.45 inches from January 19-27. It's time to score my grade. We got 40"!! I was off by 2.46", let's grade it B+, but like when I was in (Lyndon State) College, up it to A- for "always contributes to class dialogue." So there is "room for improvement." That's a tough one because the weather pattern is getting even more challenging. The air in Canada is getting colder and colder, but the air here at Jay Peak is getting warmer. It's an atmospheric battle zone this weekend and next week. Ultimately the cold will win out, but the timing is still in question. A strong low pressure system is crossing way north near James Bay Canada Saturday, it almost looks like a wayward polar vortex on the weather map. When low pressure goes to our north, it's cyclonic,(counterclockwise) circulation generates wind from the south. That track also means a warm front, in this case we get two of them in 36 hours. Yikes! That's a lot of wind and warmth. But it also means a couple bursts of snow with each 'FroPa' (Frontal Passage). That's just one day! That Low will also push down two cold fronts, a polar front Saturday night, and an arctic front Sunday. Are you counting along? -That's four FroPa's in two days. Good luck with that forecast! Oh yeah - AND we have a wave of low pressure on the Arctic Front Sunday. Oo la la. The timing of this dizzying array of weather is impossible…but here goes. Snow, if it stopped at all, is flying again Saturday morning. It's windy from the southwest with highs in the 20s, about 3" of snow. Occasional light snow continues at night with wind easing and coming around from the east, with lows near 18°, about 2" of snow. Snow increasing in intensity Sunday with wind coming from who knows what direction, hopefully not too much of it, highs somewhere between 15° and 32°, and about 6" of snow. After that, the arctic front is stalled over New England and the forecast is near impossible, Let's call it 'colder with occasional snow and wind' to close out January - probably another 10-15" Sunday to Wednesday, when that coldest air of the season so far, that we talked about last time, moves in for real... Maybe. For now, let’s just decide to live dangerously and let ourselves and our minds wander in the thought of cranking it up to 11, and have a great weekend! Talk again Tuesday - maybe in person, Tim

That's a beaut! I am damned Jealous now! You need to haul it up to the Donner Pass and demonstrate to the locals there how to move snow.

Don't look now but models are forecasting a trough to smash into California next weekend! Here comes the next train of snowmakers! I'll be GLUED to those webcams at Palisades!

Those temps are conservative. Dress in layers. Be careful. I USTA like Jay Peak. Not enough snow. They are still trying to open that resort all the way. Too damned much RAIN lately. LMAO. Palisades Tahoe all the way baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Go to Palisades Ski Resort. Get lodging in the hotels in the resort! Then stay up all night long and jebwalk around, while blasting your favorite snow songs on Spotify! Wait til they have another devastating atmospheric river then fly up there! No more spending days and days watching models craving a couple inches of pow! EXPERIENCE the REAL thing! Get smothered alive by meters of powder!

I wub those RATES so much!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have completely fallen head over heels in LOVE with the western ski resorts after what I saw just by looking at the Palisades Tahoe Webcam, especially the 8200' one!!! I could watch those rates for hours and hours and hours, while blasting ELO songs! And the high winds they get! I have seen winds blow snow UP the mountainside on the Siberian webcam! It develops monster drifts! I want to jebwalk those so bad!!

If it is the last thing I ever do ----- I am going to visit Palisades Tahoe during an epic atmospheric river. I dont think the Northeast gets enough snow. Not ever. I wanna experience a ten foot snowfall. I also want to personally experience those life-threatening high winds on the ridgetops at 9000 feet, during an epic Sierra Blizzard! After what I have seen on that webcam at Palisades Tahoe - let along actually get to BE in for REAL - I think bomb cyclones battering Boston with three feet of snow and only 95 mph wind gusts, are so pedestrian! I wanna experience a REAL, LIFE-THREATENING TAHOE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APOCALYPTIC SNOW EVENT! And, here's the KICKER! They get real snow AVALANCHES!

Check this Lake Tahoe vid out! WOW that must be 3 inch an hour rates! Check out about at 4:00