Jebman

Indiana, PA just surpassed us in yearly rain tallies. We are at 38.40. They are now 38.76. By year's end many places in the East and south will be several feet over us, while south central Texas will be getting wall to wall sunshine and highs in the 80s, even in December. We'll see a few sprinkles maybe some drizzle. We have been leading most places most of the year so far. Those days are OVER. It's not hard to understand. We are too far west for this Record El Nino. So we will be bone dry and warm. The Nino is so east-based it is setting records. The Plume is also way too far east for us. Places like Virginia, and the DMV areas appear to be right in the crosshairs. These communities have been getting smashed by repeated instances of heavy rain since at least early August. Look out once that soil gets saturated. Rain will keep right on. What else is new.

Just wait til the soil gets hypersaturated! Then you'll get to see something!

Congrats on the rains, DMV! Welcome to a Record Nino Autumn! You are all in perfect position for this! The Plume is coming straight at you! It's a massively East-Based Nino and you are right in the middle of it! Enjoy all those rains! There's a hell of a lot more where those came from! Look out for a Roided-up STJ!

DL is ALWAYS chasin' the Snow!

I crave George BM- Grade rain here in Buda! Too damn bad Austin is way too far west for the Record Nino. Maybe next time, in the early 2030s.

Congrats on the Rain, DMV Region! Havin' fun yet? It's September now and the Nino's effects should be growing day by day upon the 500 Millibar pressure surface over the CONUS.

Beaumont TX will get about 12 inches of fresh rain. Austin? Not so much. It's all about downsloping and hot as hell for us lol. We'll take what we can get, but you all know the old saying. Beggars can't be choosers.

This is primarily the reason I now expect normal precipitation for Austin thru September in 2027. For this autumn and winter, maybe a couple of inches, and some drizzle. All of my hopes for at least replenishing rains in Austin are utterly DASHED. Texas WILL run out of water. We will run out of the water because of a catastrophically dry Record El Nino, then we get a catastrophically strong Nina. That strong Nina, in 2027 or in 2028, is why Texas will break so many high temperature records and get so damned DRY that the groundwaters WILL run out and the Colorado River will get lower than anyone in living memory can ever recall. At the same time, the tech buildup in Austin will cause many many many people to move here accelerating the water uptake with nothing to replenish the water reserves. By 2029 water will be so expensive many will move east into the mid South where there is much more rain. There is a reason all the trees down here are a third of the height of trees in N Virginia. It's dry. We are so forsaken by life-giving rains, that even during the 40 day rain event of deep antiquity, we probably got 40 days of light drizzle. We are used to this. It is NO surprise. Of course we got missed by the strongest El Nino in history! I have always wanted to be caught right in the middle of a record 489 billion year flood for the Ages. Of course, I am shyte out of luck and always will be. This is a very east-based Nino, moisture plume will orient very far east,(well-away from south central Texas of course) record Nino or not. If you like sunshine, no floods ever, and east based Ninos, come live in Austin. We will have plenty of sun all winter and the average high temperature in January in Austin is 60 degrees! We have the best weather in the entire world, especially if you don't mind perpetual drought and rapidly diminishing water reserves! Damn I have got to get out of this place! I wanna spend a few years in Cherrapunji, India. Trust me, that place gets plenty of rain! Nepal stole our flood event. Damn!

Ben Noll is correct. This El Nino means serious, serious BIZNASS!

Got slammed pretty good by storms with 45 mph gusts and that piled up 2.5 inches of heavy, wind-driven rain. Hello, the very beginnings of El Nino! We are up to 38.4 inches on the year. Normal rain for the entire year is 30 inches.

I wonder how often the PDO state keeps ninos from affecting the N HEM 500 pressure surface? Or gets close?

Wow guys. I am frackin' Jealous! Enjoyin' the Nino yet? Havin' fun yet? Got that ark built yet lol?

That's called you are beginning to experience some of the early effects of a record-strength El Nino. Early cold fronts cooling things down. You will see considerably more rain than you are accustomed to in August. It will be cooler than normal and much rainier than normal from here on out.

More and more and more rain, lol. Congrats! It's gonnabe a broken record very soon.

Might change over.

Don't look now DMV but more rain coming up on you this time from the SSE. I think the Mid Atlantic is already getting El Nino'ed some.

We have a winnah! Although I am also a Gen Z and Millenial playlist person, heavy on Playboi Carti and Ken Carson.

This, is why you need to build your own Ark. This record Nino ain't playin' around. The DMV is right in its crosshairs and its loaded up for bear.

Congrats folks! Enjoy the rain!

Look at this: NWS in my neck of the woods mentions Nino - BUT I am not getting my hopes up. I am an excitable guy by nature, but I am also a realist. This is a record Nino that is extremely east-based. This means we will not get much rain in Austin from this Nino thru later 2027. But watch out Southeastern US and Mid Atlantic. This record Nino has got your name on it and it's got one hell of a roided up STJ. This Nino means bisnass. Get your arks ready in the DMV and the Southeast and Mid South. or move RIGHT NOW to the Mountains. This STJ means serious serious business and it will not spare and it will show no mercy and pull no punches. Some communities will get drowned by catastrophic flooding and it will last for a long time. Some neighborhoods in the Mid South, Southeast and Mid Atlantic will receive so many rounds of rain, that they WILL BE WRITTEN OFF. It's really too damned Bad I live too damn far west for this. I wanted to walk around and admire rising water levels while blasting Gen Z tracks, especially Playboi Carti, Kodak Black and Ken Carson. These songs and raps remind me of disasters in the 2020s. .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 The 500mb ridge steadily migrates eastward and by Friday/Saturday, it will be centered over the Texas Panhandle. At the 700mb level, the thermal ridge will be centered directly over Texas, so strong subsidence and sunny skies should be the normal through the weekend. Heat advisories will continue this weekend and actual air temperatures may approach warning levels (105+) for the Austin metro this weekend. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade to Extreme Heat Warning, but for now, expect highs in the 99-104 range for most locations through Sunday. Unfortunately, despite a brief lull and advisory level temperatures Monday-Tuesday, ridging will be in even greater control by mid to late next week, and highs in the 100-106 range look like a good bet. At this distance, little relief is in sight through the end of August, but a pattern change may be in the works as El Nino continues to strengthen over the Equatorial Pacific, which may result in increased rain chances in early to mid- September.

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.

Thanks, michsnowfreak! We will probably get some rain from this. One snow could sneak in. Look out in Detroit. Some of the moisture will get up there and you are definitely cold enough for snow! You guys could get TROWELed real hard with snow a few times! Yeah, I think DC will get slammed by nor'easters quite a bit this winter, some of which could be a ton of very deep wind-driven snow! They might end up crawling out of second-story windows in NW DC!

Congrats guys. This is but a point to what remains. In other words, welcome to a record Nino. You'll get storm cycle after storm cycle after storm cycle. By the time this puppy (the record Nino) really gets going with the North American 500 millibar pressure surface, your grounds will already be hypersaturated and you get to see floods galore! Texas is way too far west for this one. This record Nino is so far east-based that Austin will actually miss out on 70 percent of the hydrometeor output thru at least September 2027. But there should be other Ninos in the next 10-20 years (If I manage to live that long ha ha ha).

Mid Atlantic getting repeated rainstorm cycles in August? Everything with the Record Nino is right on track. This, is gonnabe good!

Well, I now live in a rather dry part of the country, near Austin, TX. I have been down here since Aug 26, 2018. It's been 8 years. I am REALLY looking forward to any extra rain that the record Nino can give us, and I KNOW that the Southeastern US is gonna get waterworlded BAD by this enso event. DMV Region, too. I think that there will be a few times this winter when extreme moisture in the DC region will meet up with Arctic air and they could see some new snow records get set. You live in the DC area, might want to stock up on food, beer, hundreds of your favorite IPA's, salt, shovels and snowblowers. Just in case.....