Jebman

Anyone up for a road trip? That's a LOT of snow!

The upper Midwest storm will have a cold front that will smash hard into south Texas Sunday night with 63 mph gusts. Sunday we will hit the low 90s.

I tried. I REALLY tried not to post this, but this storm is SO intriguing. 029 FXUS63 KMPX 141100 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 600 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - POWERFUL WINTER STORM ARRIVES TODAY with the first radar echoes entering southwestern MN this morning. Peak intensity expected later this evening through Sunday with travel conditions becoming dangerous to impossible. Winter Storm Warning upgrades to Blizzard Warning for southwest to southern MN at 9am Sunday. - FORECAST UPDATES: A slight bump northward in area, but no other significant changes. High confidence in widespread 8``+ with most ending up somewhere within 10-16`` and the highest amounts of 20``+. Highest likelihood of highest amounts from SE MN to western WI. - BLIZZARD CONDITIONS expected to begin Sunday morning across southwestern MN as winds increase, with peak gusts of 40-50mph in addition to falling snow resulting in whiteout conditions for several hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Keeping the theme of the prior discussion and due to the nature of the forecast, the discussion will be split up into a few sections. OVERVIEW... Our previously advertised winter storm will arrive today and there has been relatively little change to the ongoing forecast with the main differences being a slight bump northward in the highest band of snowfall and an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Sunday across southwestern Minnesota. The highest amount are generally expected within the eastern half of the area stretching from the Twin Cities through western WI and towards the UP. QPF within the heaviest hit area could approach 2 inches and based on forecast snow ratios of around 10:1, this is expected to result in snow amounts approaching 20+ inches in western Wisconsin. The `lower` QPF of 0.75-1 inch in central Minnesota will likewise result in lower accumulations but still easily Winter Storm Warning 6+ inch level, with far southern Minnesota possibly seeing a bit of freezing precipitation mixing in initially primarily in the form of sleet. The slight northward bump in guidance would place the heavy footprint through the heart of the Twin Cities metro, although further wobbles are possible until the system is fully underway based on how various sets of guidance have performed this winter. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate, becoming dangerous later this evening as snow rates intensify and next to impossible on Sunday as winds increase alongside continued snowfall. The storm looks to exit Sunday night with travel conditions remaining hazardous into Monday as winds continue to gust and produce blowing snow. If it all possible, we highly recommend avoiding all travel on Sunday during the worst of the storm and doing what you can to stay safe. NOW THROUGH WHEN SNOW ARRIVES... The previously mentioned `ribbon` of moisture riding the strong upper level jet is evident on GOES water vapor imagery this morning spamming from Oregon/Washington state through the northern US and riding the ridge southeast towards the area. This upper level jet will slide eastwards towards the area with a relatively broad right entrance/upper level divergence region reinforcing ongoing light precipitation by the afternoon. Radar echoes are already spanning from central South Dakota through central Iowa along the lower level baroclinic zone ahead of the developing surface low which is situated underneath the synoptic forcing of the upper level jet over the northern Rockies as of now. As we move forward in time towards this evening, the baroclinic zone will slowly progress northwards as the surface low becomes evident over northeastern Colorado and the upper level jet places a broad right entrance region over Minnesota and Wisconsin by around 6-7pm. Snow is expected to begin during the afternoon as these two features meet, starting out relatively light but rapidly intensifying as the surface low continues to strengthen and the upper level trough begins to dig as they depart the eastern Rockies. Snow will become heavy during the evening and continue to remain heavy overnight into Sunday as the trough continues to dig taking on a negative tilt with further intensification of the surface low which looks to track across Iowa towards the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Guidance isn`t completely set on the exact track of the surface low, which is why there are still some wobbles north/south expected until it arrives, however our area looks to firmly plant itself within the north/northwest quadrant of the system in prime position to see heavy snowfall. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... Heavy snow will be ongoing as we approach midnight across most of the area, with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in across far southern Minnesota where the 850mb baroclinic zone could edge just far enough northwards to introduce a warm nose, evident within model forecast soundings across the I-90 corridor by around 5-6am. The DGZ is shallower farther to the south/closer to the center of the low, which should allow for at least a few hours of sleet or a wintry mix of snow/sleet until enough precipitation falls to cool the warm nose back down below freezing and transitioning the column back to snow. The northward extent of the warm nose is one of the key points of uncertainty yet remaining within the system as in general the GFS/GEFS model suite pushes the warm nose as far north as Mankato while the steady ECMWF/EPS/AIFS bring it only to the MN/IA border, which would keep the p-type as primarily snow throughout. Regardless of how much ice falls, we still anticipate warning level snowfall even across this region despite lower snowfall rates and missing the heaviest band of snowfall, which should set up farther north. Speaking of the heaviest band of snowfall, the slight northward bump would place it squarely across the Twin Cities Metro and into western Wisconsin by sunrise on Sunday with the highest QPF 6 hour window from roughly 1am to 7am. Snowfall rates could exceed 2 or even 3 inches/hr at times during this window as the upper level trough continues to dig and begins to negatively tilt and surface low tracks closer to the area. Forecast soundings show the thermal profile just a tad warmer than your typical DGZ which resides from roughly -10 to -20C, which makes sense given that higher QPF winter storms often struggle to produce snow ratios above 12 or 15 to 1, as internal studies at MPX has shown in the past. Snow ratios are expected to hover from 8/10 to 1 during this window, which looks to produce 6-8 inches of snowfall within the heaviest band during these 6 hours alone. As time progresses past sunrise and the trough continues to dig/surface low continues to strengthen, continuous heavy snowfall is expected to continue through the rest of the morning until the surface low moves far enough east to bring the heaviest rates towards northern WI around midday. By the afternoon, snow should begin to taper off from west to east as the surface low and upper level trough both slide to the east, with light snow lingering into the late evening across eastern Minnesota and into early Monday morning in western WI. As the surface low is displaced a bit farther away from the immediate area during the afternoon and into the evening, winds are expected to increase due to a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting from further intensification of the system as it moves eastwards, with wind gusts ranging from as high as 45-55mph in southern Minnesota tapering towards 30-40mph in the Twin Cities and 25-35mph in central Minnesota. This will result in further dangerous travel even as snow begins to weaken due to blowing, coupled with snow ratios generally increasing as the snow weakens as the entire atmospheric column cools northwest of the surface low. The gusty winds and blowing snow look to continue into Monday, making cleanup all the more difficult on top of the sheer amount of snowfall expected. The upgrade to a BLIZZARD WARNING for portions of southwestern and southern Minnesota is due to the increasingly gusty winds on top of falling snow, with the warning beginning in the late morning Sunday and lingering into Monday. We would not be surprised to see a Monday morning commute that is incredibly slow due to ongoing snow removal efforts being hindered by the blowing snow and gusty winds, which will gradually weaken throughout the day Monday. Snow will end early Monday morning as the upper level trough axis progresses through the area with subsidence rapidly filling in behind the departing surface low with a 1030mb high forming by Monday evening. Winds will also be weakening significantly by this point, with quiet conditions once again returning as the system continues to move eastwards towards the Atlantic Coast. BEHIND THE SYSTEM... We will not see a prolonged period of quiet weather behind the system as another albeit much weaker hit of snow is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as another upper level jet slides into the region dragging a low level baroclinic zone through. The setup is obviously much weaker than the previous system and also much more transient with a 12 hour window of light snow resulting in another potential inch or two spanning Tuesday night through late morning Wednesday. This event wraps up quickly replaced by somewhat stagnant weather with no strong systems through the remainder of the week. NBM tries to rebound temperatures back into the mid to upper 40s by Friday, however this may be optimistic given the expected new/deep snowpack and as such we may end up in the low 40s instead. The key factor in snowmelt will not only be hours of sun during the day but also if we stay above freezing at night, thus cloud cover will be the thing to watch towards the later half of the week to see just how warm we end up. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Starting the TAF VFR at all locations but we are not going to stay that way as eventual -SN becomes SN with IFR across all sites as a powerful winter storm enters the region today. A prolonged period of SN to +SN is expected which will rapidly lower CIGS to IFR within the first 3-4 hours of snow falling, remaining IFR with periods of LIFR likely as visibility drops below 1/4sm with snow rates exceeding 1 in/hr. There is also the possibility of SNPL or even sleet in southern Minnesota, which is included in the MKT TAF but how far north the mix goes remains to be seen. Right now the highest confidence is that snowfall rates will be intense enough for all sites north of MKT that we will remain only snow throughout the event. Winds increase from 080-110 throughout, eventually becoming sustained at 15-20kts gusting to 30-35kts with further increases to wind speeds beyond the end of the period. KMSP...Elected to not include a mention of SNPL or sleet this morning although it is possible this far north. Guidance yesterday evening and overnight is slightly farther north compared to previous runs, however we have seen this trend before this winter only for them to return to a more consensus southerly track as the system arrives. For now, the chance for a wintry mix as opposed to pure snow is around 10-15%, with a period limited to around 3 to 4 hours from roughly 06 to 12z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...Chance AM IFR BLSN. Wind NW 10-15G30kts. TUE...VFR, -SN/MVFR late. Wind NW to S 5kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 5kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 To provide some historical context to the snowfall forecast for this weekend, here are the 10 largest observed single storm snowfalls in the Twin Cities recorded history (1884-present) as collected by the MN State Climatology office. 1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard) 2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend) 3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23 4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21 5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster) 6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day) 7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm) 7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14 9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28 10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21 10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 &&

One of these years is gonna come a truly historic day when everyone in this sub is gonna find themselves standing in intense snow rates with about 30 inches of snow on the ground as strong northeasterlies blow huge aggregates right past the streetlights and the TROWAL refuses to even move an inch as an historic benchmark low gets fully stacked up and captured and everything comes to a halt in record 15,000 year trowal snows from Penhook to Philly, from West Virginia right down to the Eastern Shore! And many of you are forced to crawl out second and even third story windows just to get out of the damn house because of unbelievable drifting that will overtop many structures.

THIS.

Thought I'd see a few more folks up in here given the nature of heavy snow in 24-30 hours in some portions of your overall region. Two feet of snow alongside strong winds, whiteouts and considerable drifting is nothing to sneeze at, lol. Them conditions are kinda like some you might find in the high Sierra. Places like Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth Mountain Resort.

Love your Flickr photos. You sure get some interesting weather up there!

I was getting my daily weather readings and just noticed west central Wisc where my Uncle lives may get shellacked just before my Mar 16 birthday. Could be west central MI might get well over two feet. Congrats. Hope it overperforms BIG!

We have got to somehow get this thing to stall over us with the snows. And pop a developing low off NC, and slowly move NNE and plaster the sub with a TROWAL of torrential, Glorious snow!

I know I just went thru all my weather readings. Even farther north temps have been very warm for the date. For example That's the high and low then the dew point then the actual temp/DP spread then the average high/low then the rain so far then the sunset Indiana, PA 71/56 DP58 59/58 (44/27) 5.00 7.18Binghamton, NY 71/57 DP56 62/56 (38/22) That high and low is 33 and 35 degrees above normal!! 6.85 7.05

Something is very wrong with the weather. It is unusually hot down here too. Mom is making me plant plants very early.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME, DALE CITY??????? You guys hit 87 degrees today? Man global warming is getting BAD. That's 37 degrees ABOVE AVG for this date!

I really hope against hope that Fall 2026 is one of the very WORST SUPER NINOs on Record. Maybe a ten billion year Super Nino. I want rain so bad now, I wish we would get a Harvey that would be located about 50 miles southwester from Buda and spin for four weeks, pulling truly Brobdingnagian amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, with persistent rain rates in excess of 3 inches per hour for days on end. I don't care how many people are impacted. I want my waters so bad. I crave rain so bad. I want quagmires 20 feet deep! I would not mind 600 inches between Sept 2026 and April 2027. Every storm is missing us. We're so desperate. Dallas has had 9 inches already. I've seen this before. We are heading right into a Super 2011, hell heat and absolutely no meaningful rain to be had.

Stevens Pass is going to get 2 to 4 FEET of fresh snow! https://www.stevenspass.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

Wow you guys hit 85 today? That is THIRTY DEGREES ABOVE THE AVG for Dale City! Man this is gonnabe a super HOT summer! N VA beat us in the high temperature department today, 85 degrees, Buda only eked out 82 lmao

An immense thunderstorm cell is moving at about 90 mph straight toward Buda, should smash into us at 920pm CDT. It would bring wind gusts over 110 mph, 4 inch gorilla hails and strong tornadoes. Just in case I don't make it... It's been real nice knowin y'all. I've had a good life. The only regret I have is missing out on the post-scarcity scenario by 2029, and unbelievable life extension possibilities by 2031. Some of you will see 2131. Spans will become open-ended. It's too bad this storm is going to end me for good. It's moving way too fast. Post Edit - Storm will miss just to the north but wind gusts from it as it blasts by could still be damaging. Post Post Edit - Buda may get grazed a little, but Austin is going to take a direct hit. This is a Particularly Dangerous Storm. Hazards include very large hail, wind gusts to 80 mph, torrential rain and an isolated strong tornado. People and animals outside will be seriously injured. Expect damage to roofs, vehicles, trees from large hail and from wind impacts. Looks now as though this is elongating and will probably smash North Austin, or between Austin and Round Rock thank g-d. That was a close, close shave for Buda. That hail would have smashed my poor old car to scrap, to say nothing of all the poor miniature donkeys. I am so dirt poor it would have taken me at least 4 years to get even a scrap car. Post post post edit - Excellent news - Weakening Trend. Track will be well northwester from Buda and weakening. phew !

Wow guys I am getting my daily weather readings right now. You hit 74 today? A LOW of 66 degrees? YOUR NORMALS ARE 52/33!!! That low is THIRTY DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! Welcome to the thermal trough! It hit us too!

You guys are on the east side of the trough. Some places in PA today hit 80, with DP's near 60!!!!! Their avgs are 42/25. This is highly anomalous. You are probably going to need to watch out for severe weather.

You guys are gonna get LOTS of interesting severe weather this season.

You guys are gonna get LOTS of interesting severe weather this season.

I am no meteorologist, and I am also no expert hobbyist. But what are the chances of the eastern US getting impacted by a second SSW in March? Could there be another wave of extreme cold weather in the Eastern US and could that bring more snows to the Mid Atlantic this month?

This is EPIC sig material!

I deleted this post. It belonged in politics. Sorry everyone, bad judgment on my part.

I know people are gonna say I TOLD YOU SO to me about this, and rightly so. I deserve this. ITS MARCH 4. ITS STILL WINTER LMAO! Today it is 85/68. That's a 68 degree dewpoint in early March, at a time when our normal low is 46. Dews should be running ~ 46-56. Welcome to La Nina in the Spring! La Nina in Texas is Hell HOT and HELL HUMID, with some dewpoints approaching the upper 80s at times. That's New Delhi INDIA- magnitude humidity! This is going to be a full on summer kind of Spring in south central Texas. Summer is going to be 2011-magnitude times a couple decillion. Might as well drop a couple thermonuclear missiles at us. Maybe Iran will. COLD FRONTS IN BUDA HAVE BEEN REPEALED until Christmas 2026. Rain will be scarce. Water is going to be far more valuable than Bitcoin, Silver and Gold put together. It's been real nice knowin y'all. I am not going to make it to July 1 2026. I am going to get burned alive by that damn SUN, and/or suffer a FATAL STROKE from 90/88 conditions while I try to work outside. G-d KNOWS I am super overweight which is one reason I can't walk very well, plus BAD BAD LEROY BROWN KNEE PROBLEMS, baddest knees in the whole damn town, badder than old King Kong, meaner and more painful than a junkyard dog. That's why those 85 dewpoints are definitely gonna kill me DEADER than a proverbial doornail. Writing's on the Wall. I know it. You know it. The entire town of Buda, Texas knows it. They've watched my health go straight down like a screaming aerodynamic CRASH right into a flaming dumpster. Just in the past 6 months. Tell ya what folks. I'll do my best to die like a Texan.

They just might get it.