Jebman

Congrats on the snow! Looking forward to your reports deeper on into this winter, should be a good one up in those parts.

Should be pretty good year for ya!

Dad and I watched it on tv back when it all happened. Damn I was really jonesing for snow because of it.

Now THIS, is SNOW FOOTBALL..... Looks like they were playing in at least 9 inches of snow... Need to watch it on YouTube but it's definitely worth a look...

This out of Des Moines AFD 393 FXUS63 KDMX 282347 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 547 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged snowfall through Saturday has begun in the west early this afternoon. Significant snowfall amounts of 8 to 12" are expected through Saturday evening, with some locally higher amounts possible. - Gusty winds behind the snowfall may lead to blowing and drifting of fresh snowpack on Saturday night. - Much colder temperatures move in on Sunday, with wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The well-advertised winter storm for this weekend is now knocking on our doorstep early this afternoon. The responsible wave is now making it`s way over the Rockies, with surface low pressure building over the plains. Pressure gradients are tightening in response to this, increasing southerly flow and beginning to stream gulf moisture northward. Weak frontogenesis on the periphery of the building low pressure is currently producing radar returns (snow) over eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and up into the Dakotas where a lobe of better upper level moisture is also present. This precipitation is combating some drier air below and struggling to reach the ground, although surface observations and MPING reports are already beginning to report snow over the western portions of Iowa. As we progress through this afternoon, this precipitation aloft will slowly drift east and continue to saturate down through the dry layer beneath. At the same time, increasing low level moisture transport and theta-e advection will begin to lift northward ahead of the building surface low, giving this area of precipitation the extra push it needs to reach the surface. This will mark the beginning of our prolonged period of snowfall over the state. Precipitation coverage will initially be focused under this initial lobe of weak frontogenesis and theta-e advection. However, as the 500 mb wave continues toward the central CONUS, and deepens into a pronounced trough, the building surface low pressure will close off and lift toward the state. This will bring strong isentropic lift up into Iowa, causing the precipitation to expand over the entirety of the state throughout the day Saturday. Snowfall amounts have continued the upward trend this shift, now increasing southward and slightly eastward. The expectation is still that most of the area will see amounts in the 8 to 12" range, with a band of higher amounts up to 15". This heavier band likely won`t be widespread, but instead in the "Venn diagram" where the heavier snow from the theta-e wing tonight meets with the heaviest rates from the actual low pressure passage tomorrow. This area of higher (13"+) amounts varies somewhat from run-to-run and model-to-model, causing NBM to produce a fairly large area of 13"+ values in the forecast. Generally, the expectation is still for these higher amounts to be along interstate 80 and north, favoring the eastern portions of the forecast area. Of course, once you reach a certain point with snow amounts, it becomes more nitpicky than impact-driven. This prolonged snowfall is going to create travel impacts for most of the area on Saturday, whether your location ends up on the higher or lower end of that spread. Likewise, areas that only briefly cross through the heavier bands will still see periods of 1"/hr rates or higher, which will lead to visibility reductions. Farther south in the state, there is still some question on snowfall amounts as warmer surface temperatures attempt mix rain with the snow. However, with the slight southwestward trend in higher amounts, have seen an increase in forecasted snow totals over southwestern Iowa. For this reason, have upgraded a few counties in southwestern Iowa from the advisory to a winter storm warning. It`s still possible the warm air wins out in these areas, but model soundings indicate the surface warm layer will be extremely shallow and wetbulb temperatures only around 33 to 34 F at their warmest. It stands to reason that heavier rates will be able to overcome this shallow warm layer, and snow through it. Dynamic cooling of the layer may occur as well, as snow falls an melts (removing heat from the air) but southerly flow/warm air advection will work to negate this cooling. Given this delicate balance, this area definitely has the most uncertainty in snow amounts. In addition to this rain/snow mix, there may also be a brief period early Saturday morning where ice introduction is lost and freezing rain/drizzle develops. This seems to be a fleeting threat and significant accumulations aren`t expected. However, be on the lookout for isolated patches of ice in southwestern Iowa. The heaviest snowfall rates should be wrapping up around the early evening in our forecast area with lingering light snow lasting till about 10 pm to midnight. While the falling snow should be improving through this timeframe, there is a growing signal for wind gusts increasing to around 25 to 35 mph behind the cold front late Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds should primarily be displaced from the heavier snowfall rate that are associated with the warmer portion of the system, but a brief phasing of falling snow and increasing winds could lead to reduced visibilities into Saturday evening. Likewise, fresh snowpack/loose snow on the ground will be susceptible to blowing/drifting around. This blowing snow, in conjunction with snow still on the ground, will prolong travel impacts into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Winds/gusts will then diminish through Sunday morning. High pressure and colder air fills in behind the system on Sunday, dropping temperatures over the area. Wind chills on Sunday morning will be near and below zero, making for quite chilly conditions for anyone getting up to move snow on Sunday morning. These cold temperatures and wind chills continue through the first part of the week, with highs on Sunday and Monday only reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight lows falling into the single digits Monday and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills through this same time will be quite cool in the single digits above and below zero. Of note, another system looks to clip the state on Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional snow chances to the area. Fortunately, amounts look marginal compared to this weekend`s system, with ensemble probabilities showing a roughly 50 to 60% chance for an inch or more of snow in southern Iowa and only a 30 to 40% chance for two inches or more. Additional details on the early week system will be provided in the coming days.

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!

Happy to report delightful refreshing dewpoints in the low 30s today, a delightful refreshing northerly breeze at 17mph and highs only around 60. It is so hard to believe after warm humid temps ever since late Feb. Tonight down to 38 with 30 dews. I might walk down Main St with only a soaking wet t-shirt on and swimming trunks at 3am! I might even sneak into the fish pond! Cool weather is SO INVIGORATING!

Winter IS coming.

Except for down in the deep southwest where I am, where we have consistently been 10-20 degrees above normal since Sept 1. We are sick and tired of all the warmth! I am already crying out for an ice age for 984 million years. But, Mid Atlantic will see numerous snowstorms this winter. Modeling is already hinting at it, and you guys will be staring at modeling then digging snow til your backs break.

Don't forget Lucy...

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

Look guys, this post is not about the modeling BUT this IS the December Medium Long Range Discussion Thread. That's fine. I'm down with it. Let's do this. But, anyone take a look at the calendar lately? Its still November 23. Just sayin.

We ought to run a casino, over when Austin FINALLY EVER has a normal high temp of 65, if ever! I am willing to bet we never have highs here in the 50s, until December 2026! This is a massive Nina, and Texas is going to be boiling HOT all winter. It's obvious we are above normal all the time, with occasional 1-2 day cooldowns to 10 degrees above normal. This is concerning, because what it all means is a category 5 drought leading into Summer 2026 then super high temps appropriate to late stage global warming. We have had many overnight lows warmer than our normal average high temperatures. It is difficult to comprehend that our normal high temperature is now 65 degrees, and that our normal low is only 47. That sounds like New England weather, compared to what we have been dealing with since mid February this year. We'll have a semi permanent high pressure over the American Southwest from today well into most of 2026 maybe even 2027. This will mean that the Eastern Seaboard will be far colder than normal this winter and why many of our snowfall forecasts for Washington DC will turn out to be ridiculously conservative. We had a cold front last night. Yep. high was 76. We are always well above normal temperature wise, and extremely below normal rain wise. This is the hallmark of a Nina in the south and southwest. Better look out Eastern US. You are gonna freeze this winter amidst numerous blizzards!

Better call the Reaper, lol. He's almost had to tend to me, over lack of snow in the Sierra already this season. TWICE. Reaper's gonna be exhausted this winter.

I got the Cure for that. It can torch Nino all it wants then NIna to Eternity. All you need is a place called Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort or the Canadien Rockies at 16,000 feet in January. It would be -20 Fahrenheit, 175 mph winds and blinding snow and the skiing's great in the Canadien Rockies, real pow snow and no melting for 11.9 months out of the year. No one has to put up with global warming no longer, It will never be too warm for snow and winter in the Sierra, the Cascades or the Canadien Rockies or especially the Brooks Range in Alaska. You go high enough in the Rockies snow NEVER melts. I'm crazy as all hell but I still want an all-out Ice Age, with snow 13,000 feet deep, 100 mph winds and -100 degree cold. I am no better than I was in high school. The school board kicked my sorry ass out of Gar Field High in 1981. I just would not stop taking weather readings in class or drawing cross sections of cold fronts displacing hot air and changing rain to torrential snow. There was one particular incident in Mr. Levine's Earth Science class while I was in the 10th Grade where I was so obsessed with taking weather obs in class that I stuck my hand out the window to sling around a sling psychrometer. I was trying to get a wet bulb temperature reading, and I wanted to do this in class. It was Earth Science, after all. After that day EVERYONE called me Weatherman. I also got put on detention for disruption of class. In middle school and high school I was always in trouble for trying to take weather observations during class and simply going on and on about cold fronts changing rain to snow, drawing cross sections of weather fronts in class, and tending to walk around outside the school in the mornings just because it was cold and I loved it! In Gar-Field High I was consistently tardy to home room because I was out jebwalking in the cold weather in the morning. I knew that Main Office like the back of my hand, and everyone in there was sick and tired of The Weatherman. I am sick to death of summer in November in Texas. I am back to wishing for an all-out AMOC Shutdown and the return of an Ice Age Earth, associated with a PERMANENT GLACIAL maybe lasting a few hundred million years. We can always live in the deep underground military bases if need be. We can defeat the hybrid creatures that live in the deeper levels 4 miles down, They have a Mach 2 maglev transport system under there and it is global. I demand: snow 13,000 feet deep, minus 100 degree high temps, and constant blasting by severe gales and 200 story drifts in a milkshake-like environment. This was the way I expressed myslef in high school and it is no surprise I finally got my ass kicked right out of the public school system, in 1981 when I was in 11th Grade. They'd had enough. Well, I have had enough of summer in November. It'll be summer in Texas the next three months. I'm fed up. I want extreme cold deep ice and snow and watch everyone fall down and bust their tailbone! All while I happily blast Ken Carson at 200 decibels! This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, 2025 I'm Tired of Summer Edition. Carry on.

Look, I KNOW I'm a damn broken record about this, but Mammoth's OPEN! You GOTTA see this! It`s Opening Weekend and the stoke is high!!!!! All the best snow in the whole world is waiting for you at Mammoth! It's only 3-4 hours away by plane! This is one of the BEST-EVER montages of all the FUN you WILL experience at Mammoth Ski Resort! https://www.mammothmountain.com/ Oh, and Palisades Tahoe is opening in only 4 days!!!

Eskimo Joe I have a special message board, ScienceWeather 2 which is a phpBB3 board, where I post special stuff. This definitely qualifies!

Mammoth is getting hit by even more snow - this was definitely NOT in the forecast tonight! They have 3-4 inches MORE fresh snow since 6pm and MORE on the way overnight! They just opened today! Even the Village level got hit! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Woolly Lot needs a Plow!!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam That snow is blowing in the Lights at the Main Lodge! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

The Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get beneficial rains from the system that just missed us. You guys are downstream of us and will benefit from this weather system as it continues to develop as it translates E/NE with time. Another rainmaker will help Washington out right after that. Same reason come December/January/February you will see snows from the intersection of moisture contributions from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and cold air. Our misses and failures will become YOUR BIG STORM DIRECT HITS ON YOUR ENTIRE SUB this entire winter! First beneficial rains, later translating into really good snows that will pile up and wear out your backs as you will be forced to dig snow after snow after snow!

Hays County where I reside, been dropped from the flood watch. It's done. We transition to the Pacific air mass with little to no rain as the central Texan Gobi Desert continues to develop unopposed by significant precip amid the Nina. I knew it all along. Texas is transitioning to a much drier climate even as millions of legal people rapidly move in as more and more businesses come to Austin. One day very soon, WATER will be nearly as expensive as GOLD down here. 1) Wells dry up. 2) No water at all. 3) Water has to be paid for and Austin is already using up the Colorado River so water will need to be piped in from the Pac Northwest. It's gonnabe PRICEY. 4) Wealthy folks will move out, to moister places like New Orleans. I'd love that place, rain all the time and one hell of a nightlife, I'd do things that'd make RavensRule blush with total embarrassment! I am most assuredly, NOT conservative no more! I am going to do stuff in late life that will make Solomon of old's late life look like one of Billy Graham's sons' dedication to g-d. EDIT: Keeping things 100 - yes we did get a brief shower, it did wet the pavement but will do nothing for our water needs or agriculture needs. We still have millions of legal people moving to central TX along with businesses and the wells will dry up then water will cost a sizable fraction of our annual income forcing people to leave for wetter climes. We have now been officially MISSED by this weather system. We will miss the next one in a couple days as well. We will be dry and desertification will continue apace in central TX. Winds are gusting to 15-25mph straight out of the north, Pac front hit us, some bit of rain is scudding by. This is just another day in the Gobi Desert of central Texas. Dry conditions continue apace. RAIN FUTILITY MARKERS 1) Rain delayed is rain denied or at least greatly reduced. 2) The Curly Pattern near Austin invalidates upper level low rains and Pacific frontal rains. 3) La Nina will keep Austin 15 degrees above normal and rainless for the most part. We have consistently been 15 degrees above normal with high temperatures. Last night the low was 73. Normal low is 48. NORMAL HIGH is 66 !!!! OUCH. This is becoming normal in autumn down here. 4) Differences between air masses temperatures and humidities mean absolutely NOTHING down here. Thermodynamics mean absolutely NOTHING down here. Forecasters routinely get humbled. If it were 95 degrees with 73 dews in Austin and a Polar front with 47/35 air hits us, it would get cold but rain would be minimal to none. Not sure why but this is our new normal down here. Upper level lows and fronts do next to nothing here besides changing the air mass. MORE WILL BE ADDED.

I am an outstanding forecaster as the same areas continue to get drowned by heavy rain and Austin remains drier than a proverbial popcorn fart. That Curl Pattern always leaves Austin out to dry. At this time I expect approximately one sixteenth of an inch as the front goes by eventually. Farther west torrential rain continues, provoking more flooding. Edit - Sun's been out. Mostly cloudy with a nice wind and still no rain. It's truly amazing, looking at all that torrential rain about 60 to 120 miles west of us, curling right past Austin nearly into West Virginia!!!!! Lots places getting a good deal of rain! Washington, DC's next! Front should go by late tonight, giving the new Gobi Desert of central Texas maybe a sprinkle or two then in comes the high winds and chilly weather blowing the dust around. I got 6 inch dust dunes in my pasture from all the dry Gobi winds lol! Best of luck with the rescues west of us! That heavy rain's been hammering them for twelve straight hours! We're so hard up for water, might have buy some off you guys! Just another DRY rainless day down here in Gobi, Texas.

No surprise. Dallas is getting demolished by waves of torrential rain. DAMN I'M A GOOD FORECASTER! The rain has completely missed us tonight, which in one sense was good for me because it means I got to go out deliver. I am now pretty sure that this curl pattern, which I have learned to recognize, when we have a Pacific front and an upper level low - The Infamous Curl Pattern, in which rain curls around the Austin Metro and around Buda, means little to no moisture for us, and Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri had better be building an Ark, because this system is very powerful and all of the rain will be channeled across Dallas, probably dumping over a foot of fresh rain flooding the Trinity River and it is gonna take a hell of a lot more than Neo to conduct all those water rescues into Thursday and Friday. A hell of a lot of heavy rain is heading right for Little Rock, AR! Oklahoma is at grave risk as is parts of Missouri. Louisiana isn't out of the woods, not by a long shot. I'll eke out maybe a tenth to a third of an inch, That's all. This is a BAD PATTERN for Austin. I have seen this so many times its not even funny. Welcome to La Nina. This low sun season drought is gonnabe so bad for Texas come the hell summer of 2026 in which the Nina will only deepen. No rain at all for us. Ag will suffer and collapse. Jugs of water will be worth incredible amounts of money by 2030. Food will become scarce as the ugly specter of holodomor starts to loom. This may be a damn good time to get out of the Southwestern US. Where there is no water, there is no life. REMEMBER, BEFORE MOVING TO AUSTIN - THIS REGION IS CURSED. WE MISS MOST OF THE RAIN. Might want to go to New Orleans instead. They are in an historic convergence zone. They get all the winter rains, then in the summer and fall in a good year every last tropical cyclone will ring their bell. Harvey was wonderful! They had plenty of rain that year!

You guys want to see snow. Look NO farther than Mammoth Mountain's Ski Resort OPENING TOMORROW at 8.30am PST!!!!! Check THIS out! https://www.mammothmountain.com/

Tons of rain on the radar, but NO RAIN in central Texas. There's one thing we do damn well - We are The Boss, when it comes to Drought down here. No one does Drought like central Texas. La Nina's helpin us out too, deflecting storm tracks safely away from my backyard. I'll forecast this storm. No one does this like yours truly down here, and I have only been here 7 years. Dallas, They will have frantic water rescues by 3am. 3 to 9 inches easily. Most of the rain will pass safely over Austin. We *MIGHT* eke out half an inch. Yeah, that really helps. We are now the fastest growing megalopolis (Dallas/Austin/Buda/Kyle/SanMarcos/San Antonio) in the World. We passed Dubai and the entire UAE last year. WE WILL RUN OUT OF WATER. When THAT happens, water will be far more expensive than gasoline. Every major business is heading for Austin. This place is already a madhouse in rush hour. It's gonna get MUCH, MUCH worse. Everyone in New York City is heading down here, too. We'll add 3 million in the next 12 months! New Yorkers can't stand the snow and the cold, that is why so many people are suddenly moving out of NYC. All that snow is bad for business up there. Austin does not get snow. We don't get rain, either. Not much. Well north usually gets the rain. That would be Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri, Louisiana. You know what I think? The lack of water in Texas will eventually cause another exodus, this time farther east, to pastures that get much more water, like New Orleans. Nightlife there is stellar, too, and they have casinos. Texas never will. This place is permanently stuck in the 1950s. Except for traffic and water shortages straight out of the 2090s.

Big snow aggregates are just demolishing the Woolly Lot right now at 21 degrees, and are being blown sideways by that wind as well! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam