Jebman

Damn that would put 130 mph north winds over Dale City, but there might be a nice flood on the Potomac! Maybe forcing a lot of water up thru all the drains?

Seems like I am so old these days, that I no longer feel the need to jebwalk in the snow. Not on the ice either. I am so afraid I will fall and get grievously hurt. And I can't dig snow any more. The only thing I want from snow, is to WATCH it smash Mammoth Ski Resort. But the one thing that I still love and crave for these old days, is excessive rain and destructive floods. Or storm surge like Katrina. Or Banda Aceh-like tsunamis. I love rising water levels, especially when it is coming UP thru all of the drains making the water levels rise ominously. I guess this is the reason why I shall be DENIED the Super Nino. It's extreme east based and the Plume will be hundreds of miles well east of Austin. South Central Texas will suffer a record DROUGHT in Autumn 2026-Winter 2027 while the East and Southeast get turned into waterworld. I guess Fate has said NO resoundingly to me concerning floods. I shall never get to see one. Imagine that. I love disasters like floods with all my heart and I will never get to see one. I guess this might be one reason I have now come to love Royal Caribbean cruise ships. They sail over 7,400 feet of Caribbean ocean waters. I want to go on the Icon of the Seas SO DAMN BAD! I will not able to walk very much, but I'll kick back on those benches right next to the outer glass and watch the blue waves go by for hours and hours and hours while drinking gallons and gallons and gallons of Cherry Coca Cola. I'll be able to drain the ship because I will have a Royal Refreshment Package. I will also be eating them out of house and ship eating up all of their crab cakes, because I love giant crab globs and will have a Specialty Package. They better get stocked up but good. I am a food and drink HOG. I shall hog and hog, very politely, every last crab cake I can get my greedy little hands on! I LOVE those crab cakes! I also adore Coca Cola, every last flavor, and Icon of the Seas has something like twelve different Coke flavors. I have already watched every last You Tube video about EVERYTHING ROYAL CARIBBEAN! I am already well-known here in Buda for buying 35 Cokes right off the shelf at 7-11, depleting their immediate supply. Hey, it gets HOT AS HELL down here! Boy did they guffaw when I explained why I want to go on a Royal Caribbean ship like Icon of the Seas! They have every nuance of Coca Cola known to Man! And I'll drink every last one of them! And Coco Love! Those are I think cans of coconut waters! I LOVE COCONUT WATERS! I'll drink them all just like a damn fish! Don't get me started about Giovanni's! They have lasagna. I'll be eating that up, too. One thing I LOVE about cruise ships is that the cruise industry considers older men like me falling asleep on a shaded pool lounger, to be part of the Experience! I LOVE CRUISE SHIPS! I love the ocean and how incredibly DEEP it is! I love all the waterslides! And all the POOLS! I'll be contentedly floating around in the pool, on my back, trying to pretend I'm in a flood and just trying to stay afloat lmao! And the breakfast stations, all the complimentary sausages, hash browns and roast beef hash! I am gonnabe extremely, supremely happy, even without a real flood to enjoy! And complimentary Taco stations loaded up with mild taco meat and shredded mozzarella! I'll be happily piling it right up then retiring to a convenient kick back bench where I will savor every last bite while happily watching brown lines of Sargassum seaweed passing by the floor to ceiling windows! There is someplace on the ship that has complimentary diced watermelon in these big cups! I love diced watermelon too! I'll savoring cup after cup after cup after cup of the sliced cold watermelon! Might eat them out of house and ship out of melon, too. VERY politely, of course! You know, this ship could sink! 7400 feet of Caribbean ocean and a nice lap swimming contest only the laps are about 1400 miles long lol! Now THAT would be a decent flood lol!

Oh, the Tide is gonna turn, allright. This record Nino has the DMV in its sights. This record-strength, record-east based Nino's moisture Plume is also aimed directly at the Mid Atlantic. That STJ will be roided up! Yeah man, The Tide is definitely gonna turn. A HELL of a lot. You may end up with lower triple digits of inches of rain by Dec 30. You will still have months more of the rain. Might want to build elevated paths over your yard, lol. Or just go ahead and pull the trigger and build an Ark. Tie the lines to your house's Deck. Might even go ahead and build your Ark out kind of like a kind of miniature Royal Caribbean type ship!!!! Man I LOVE ROYAL CARIBBEAN SO MUCH! Heck I might even fly out there and kick back on your Ark and enjoy the rain. Texas is gonnabe high and DRY for this one. Ha ha we are waaaaaaaay too far west for this one. Maybe I will still be around for the super Nino in the later 2040s lol. Maybe that one will be west-based and will give Texas record rains.

Hello again DMV! Yet another day of rain for ya! Welcome to the Record El Nino of 2026-27!

Indiana, PA just surpassed us in yearly rain tallies. We are at 38.40. They are now 38.76. By year's end many places in the East and south will be several feet over us, while south central Texas will be getting wall to wall sunshine and highs in the 80s, even in December. We'll see a few sprinkles maybe some drizzle. We have been leading most places most of the year so far. Those days are OVER. It's not hard to understand. We are too far west for this Record El Nino. So we will be bone dry and warm. The Nino is so east-based it is setting records. The Plume is also way too far east for us. Places like Virginia, and the DMV areas appear to be right in the crosshairs. These communities have been getting smashed by repeated instances of heavy rain since at least early August. Look out once that soil gets saturated. Rain will keep right on. What else is new.

Just wait til the soil gets hypersaturated! Then you'll get to see something!

Congrats on the rains, DMV! Welcome to a Record Nino Autumn! You are all in perfect position for this! The Plume is coming straight at you! It's a massively East-Based Nino and you are right in the middle of it! Enjoy all those rains! There's a hell of a lot more where those came from! Look out for a Roided-up STJ!

DL is ALWAYS chasin' the Snow!

I crave George BM- Grade rain here in Buda! Too damn bad Austin is way too far west for the Record Nino. Maybe next time, in the early 2030s.

Congrats on the Rain, DMV Region! Havin' fun yet? It's September now and the Nino's effects should be growing day by day upon the 500 Millibar pressure surface over the CONUS.

Beaumont TX will get about 12 inches of fresh rain. Austin? Not so much. It's all about downsloping and hot as hell for us lol. We'll take what we can get, but you all know the old saying. Beggars can't be choosers.

This is primarily the reason I now expect normal precipitation for Austin thru September in 2027. For this autumn and winter, maybe a couple of inches, and some drizzle. All of my hopes for at least replenishing rains in Austin are utterly DASHED. Texas WILL run out of water. We will run out of the water because of a catastrophically dry Record El Nino, then we get a catastrophically strong Nina. That strong Nina, in 2027 or in 2028, is why Texas will break so many high temperature records and get so damned DRY that the groundwaters WILL run out and the Colorado River will get lower than anyone in living memory can ever recall. At the same time, the tech buildup in Austin will cause many many many people to move here accelerating the water uptake with nothing to replenish the water reserves. By 2029 water will be so expensive many will move east into the mid South where there is much more rain. There is a reason all the trees down here are a third of the height of trees in N Virginia. It's dry. We are so forsaken by life-giving rains, that even during the 40 day rain event of deep antiquity, we probably got 40 days of light drizzle. We are used to this. It is NO surprise. Of course we got missed by the strongest El Nino in history! I have always wanted to be caught right in the middle of a record 489 billion year flood for the Ages. Of course, I am shyte out of luck and always will be. This is a very east-based Nino, moisture plume will orient very far east,(well-away from south central Texas of course) record Nino or not. If you like sunshine, no floods ever, and east based Ninos, come live in Austin. We will have plenty of sun all winter and the average high temperature in January in Austin is 60 degrees! We have the best weather in the entire world, especially if you don't mind perpetual drought and rapidly diminishing water reserves! Damn I have got to get out of this place! I wanna spend a few years in Cherrapunji, India. Trust me, that place gets plenty of rain! Nepal stole our flood event. Damn!

Ben Noll is correct. This El Nino means serious, serious BIZNASS!

Got slammed pretty good by storms with 45 mph gusts and that piled up 2.5 inches of heavy, wind-driven rain. Hello, the very beginnings of El Nino! We are up to 38.4 inches on the year. Normal rain for the entire year is 30 inches.

I wonder how often the PDO state keeps ninos from affecting the N HEM 500 pressure surface? Or gets close?

Wow guys. I am frackin' Jealous! Enjoyin' the Nino yet? Havin' fun yet? Got that ark built yet lol?

That's called you are beginning to experience some of the early effects of a record-strength El Nino. Early cold fronts cooling things down. You will see considerably more rain than you are accustomed to in August. It will be cooler than normal and much rainier than normal from here on out.

More and more and more rain, lol. Congrats! It's gonnabe a broken record very soon.

Might change over.

Don't look now DMV but more rain coming up on you this time from the SSE. I think the Mid Atlantic is already getting El Nino'ed some.

We have a winnah! Although I am also a Gen Z and Millenial playlist person, heavy on Playboi Carti and Ken Carson.

This, is why you need to build your own Ark. This record Nino ain't playin' around. The DMV is right in its crosshairs and its loaded up for bear.

Congrats folks! Enjoy the rain!

Look at this: NWS in my neck of the woods mentions Nino - BUT I am not getting my hopes up. I am an excitable guy by nature, but I am also a realist. This is a record Nino that is extremely east-based. This means we will not get much rain in Austin from this Nino thru later 2027. But watch out Southeastern US and Mid Atlantic. This record Nino has got your name on it and it's got one hell of a roided up STJ. This Nino means bisnass. Get your arks ready in the DMV and the Southeast and Mid South. or move RIGHT NOW to the Mountains. This STJ means serious serious business and it will not spare and it will show no mercy and pull no punches. Some communities will get drowned by catastrophic flooding and it will last for a long time. Some neighborhoods in the Mid South, Southeast and Mid Atlantic will receive so many rounds of rain, that they WILL BE WRITTEN OFF. It's really too damned Bad I live too damn far west for this. I wanted to walk around and admire rising water levels while blasting Gen Z tracks, especially Playboi Carti, Kodak Black and Ken Carson. These songs and raps remind me of disasters in the 2020s. .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 The 500mb ridge steadily migrates eastward and by Friday/Saturday, it will be centered over the Texas Panhandle. At the 700mb level, the thermal ridge will be centered directly over Texas, so strong subsidence and sunny skies should be the normal through the weekend. Heat advisories will continue this weekend and actual air temperatures may approach warning levels (105+) for the Austin metro this weekend. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade to Extreme Heat Warning, but for now, expect highs in the 99-104 range for most locations through Sunday. Unfortunately, despite a brief lull and advisory level temperatures Monday-Tuesday, ridging will be in even greater control by mid to late next week, and highs in the 100-106 range look like a good bet. At this distance, little relief is in sight through the end of August, but a pattern change may be in the works as El Nino continues to strengthen over the Equatorial Pacific, which may result in increased rain chances in early to mid- September.

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.