Jebman

It's hard to believe it's been raining all day lol. Backedge is roaring though. Should clear out in 3 hours. Nebraska got most of our moisture lol.

Glad your trip worked out, Mrs. J. The line of storms is starting to build just west of us; maybe we will get some rain after all.

Nebraska has managed to steal much of the moisture. Some communities up there have gotten 6-8 inches of south central Texan rainfall. Give us back our rightful rain. We want our rain back, NOW!

No doubt about it, now. Line is forming 20 miles west of Buda. Everything is forming then moving right along that line or wester. Bulverde and Bergheim just got blasted by yellow globs. I probably won't even see those hit me until very late tomorrow night and by then the whole moisture line will be racing for the Atlantic. But no rain tonight because I am on the WRONG side of the moisture axis means I get to do delivery! Stand by for another catastrophe in Kerrville with this system.

Hey George BM, In the October Edition wrote up a storm for us that absolutely obliterates Texas with feet of rain from a stalled out front then have that system move to the DMV and douse you guys with all that rain! RAIN is what everyone is crying out for.

I know without a doubt in my mind, that I will receive a quarter inch of rain in Buda thru October 12. Everytime forecasters go on and on about all the intricacies of this setup, like the 2 inch PWATs, I get next to nothing. 100 miles west of Buda will be obliterated by a foot of fresh rain. This is what always happens down here. THAT, is why we have a catastrophic drought and we will always have one, throughout this so-called strong El Nino. Sometimes I wish I were back in Washington DC. At least they get nice and 33 degree cold with rainstorm after rainstorm after gray bone chilling rainstorm after rainstorm with Ninos. We don't. We get sun, we get hot, we are dry as a proverbial popcorn fart and we always will be dry. They are already trimming amounts. They are already trimming the chance of precip per day. Here's the BAD news, this system will move super fast over Buda. That's why we will be extremely fortunate to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain. The more we get trimmed, the more we get denied. That's livin' in the Southwest and that's my neighborhood. Always short on rain, always long on hot as hell and dry. And windy too. Two reasons Buda does not get rain.... 1) I am CURSED for LIFE. All storms jump over us or evaporate. 2) Klingon Anti Rain Shield over my region. It deflects most rainstorms. My curse obliterates all the others the Shield missed.

Need to draw a line in south central Texas then write in a notation, "Jebman on the WRONG side of an agonizing rain cutoff line. Again. Countless times this winter. What else is new."

Severe torrential rains setup for south central Texas evolves, and it looks like poor I 35 where I live will get a few scraps, probably an inch, while just 5 miles west may get 8 to 12 inches and delightful destructive flooding with thousands of exciting water rescues will be ongoing probably only a few miles west of my back yard. I hate this solution, I see it a lot down here. Buda has a premium Ultra Klingon Rain Shield. It's all powered up and all ready to go! What else is new. I am pretty much cursed. Everywhere I go, severe killing drought occurs. Scary thought. I am assuredly on the WRONG SIDE of the cutoff, and make no mistake about it, this particular cutoff will be agonizing for many. We have a pretty serious drought and Buda will very likely miss out. I wish I was in India in that place that gets north of 1000 inches per year. I'd be in Heaven! But I'm not, I am in Buda and I will miss out. Again. If you live in Kerrville TX this would be a good time to clear out and take a vacation somewhere for 6 days. They will probably have another July 4 2025 again this week with another record flood crest raging down the valley carrying people, houses, trailers and entire communities far away downstream.

As with all things rain in south central Texas ---- By now I have learned to take these predictions with about 41,000 grains of Dead Sea salt. I've been here for 8 years. Rain related heartbreak is as common down here as soul-wrenching taxes. With that said...... ( https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ) By Tuesday the upper level low will continue to push eastward towards the desert southwest thus shunting the subtropical ridge currently over our area and pushing it off to the east. As this happens lee side surface troughing east of the rockies will help to bring in stronger southeasterly winds at the surface. This in turn will help pull in more moisture up from the Gulf giving us a better shot at rain and storm chances during the day along with our typical seabreeze. For now have capped rain chances at 30 percent for areas mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor. By Tuesday night we could start to see rain/storm chances increase as we begin to see the beginning effects of the upper level low over the desert southwest as it slowly deepens and progresses eastward towards the Southern Plains. Additionally, significant amounts of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be pulled into our area in the upper levels along with lower level moisture being brought in from the Gulf. We could see PWATS approaching and even exceeding 2 inches. As such any storms that do form will be tropical in nature and capable of very heavy rainfall. WPC currently has Val Verde and parts of Edwards counties in a level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday with the risk shifting eastward and increasing further as we get beyond Tuesday night. More about that in the long term portion below. The advertised pattern change is on track for mid to late week with increased showers and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday and continuing through late week and beyond. An upper low will be located over the Four Corners region Wednesday, eventually moving east across the Central and Southern Plains late week bringing a Pacific cold front across our area. Abundant moisture will be available ahead of this system with some guidance showing PWATs around 200 percent above normal.

You are getting to enjoy moisture not just from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, but also the remnants from Odalys! If only that could please move down here to Austin TX. We're parched and we're fading fast.

The great thing about excessive tides is the water gets pushed up the road drains! I love to watch that while blasting Playboi Carti and The Weeknd! You got to enjoy the sheer thrill of watching the water levels rise!

I am really frackin' JEALOUS! They get to have cool weather. They get the leaf colors, and they get to have all the fall rains!

You know what REALLY gets my goat? Four Corners gets to have life-threatening rains from Polo AND Odalys! Of course I don't get to have shyte. I get to have sunshine and more fookin' HOT WEATHER and I am sick of this nonsense! I am SICK OF IT! I'm SICK OF IT! I am SICK TO DEATH of no rain and hot! I want chilly and waterworld rains!

That rain is still Inbound from the northeast, DMV! It's not dyin out, it's getting bigger!

Don't look now, DMV but here comes yet another big rain blob from the Northeast! You guys are gonnabe piling up some fresh rain tallies!

Congrats on getting Polo's rain! Hey could you send a little of that rain down to south central Texas please?

40/70 REALLY gets deep into the analysis on his blog!

Congrats everyone! i see that big blob moved southwest!

I am fracking jealous of all that fresh life giving rain and strong chilly NE winds right off the Atlantic! Meanwhile I am fading fast from no rain and wall to wall sunshine and highs around 99 every day.

Wow guys a nor'easter along with 35 mph gusts, highs ONLY in the 60s and bands of life-giving rain! I'd be out on a jebwalk with shorts and a t-shirt, might even douse myself with ice water too! I'm tired of being hot as hell and I want tons of torrential rain and catastrophic floods driven by 65 mph winds.

Uh-oh deep trough could be inbound to Texas next week with a subtropical/polar phase of the jetstreams and Polo's moisture entrained in the system. If so my dreams of flooding in south central Texas could be realized, and I shall be found in the midst of a long limping jebwalk near Plum Creek getting my precious Fort Myers 2022-like water readings! C'Mon Polo! Let's have ALL the moisture over south central Texas! Let's have a hundred year setup right over my backyard! Maybe it could STALL for a few days as well!

WOW I am getting my daily weather readings in 13 cities and I just found out Dale City had a high today of ONLY 66 degrees! Wow 99 in Buda and 66 in Dale City! Wow autumn is right on schedule for N VA and will likely be well below normal in the low sun season!

I fervently hope you guys' climates NEVER approximate Austin Texas. We get and stay very hot/humid sometimes from late April to early October! You need serious A/C in your homes and cars! Summer does NOT play around down here!

Hurricane Polo near the Baja is a super hurricane at 180 mph winds gusting well over 200mph. It's gonna get pulled west big time, but if only Texas could get all that moisture! Man that would be a Flood of a Lifetime! I would be beside myself with utter JOY at all the destructive floodwaters! I'd be enjoying ebullient jebwalks near the flooded regions while blasting tropical tracks that get played on Royal Caribbean cruise ships! Damn. So close to me, but it might as well be in South America for all the good it will ever do me. In the meantime, drought and desertification reign supreme in south central Texas. Hurricane Polo is sporting a pressure of 890 millibars, which is roughly equivalent to 26.29 inches. It is fitting that such a tremendous hurricane should not offer us a drop of its water. El Nino is not playing around. The Southeast and Mid Atlantic are in dire peril this autumn, winter and spring next year. Make NO mistake about it, THE PLUME is aimed straight at the Southeast and the Mid Atlantic and will stay zeroed in on those regions well into 2027! The DMV will get over being dry because there will soon be SO DAMN MUCH RAIN there that you will be begging ME for Texas dryness and sunshine! The DMV will be totally waterlogged and also very cloudy and drizzly COLD and believe you me, everyone in the DC Region will be sick and tired of it in very short order! Many communities unlucky enough to be situated neat watercourses of any kind will regret it as neighborhoods get submerged and stay that way, in the midst of the recurring rains and drizzly cold gray weather. I can still remember what 1997-98 was like. It was just gray rainstorm after gray rainstorm after freezing cold gray rainstorm! My rain bucket got a lot of mileage that season! It rained and rained and rained and rained, and this Nino is going to be WORSE!

Lots more rain on the way for the DMV. Look at the radar! Good luck to everyone.