Jebman

Lookin at this - It is as though I were right there in Buffalo NY lookin out the window! I subscribed to you long ago!

Big-time LE event getting ready to start ---- I am wishing all of you up there in the Snow Zone the very best! Stay safe, and enjoy it to the FULL! Maybe the forecasters up there are dead WRONG! Maybe this lake effect event will turn out to be one for the all-time record books and last a couple of weeks!

This is SO UNBELIEVABLY intriguing, that I just had to post it up. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 411 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Colder air will pour across the region, resulting in a prolonged lake effect snow event. Lake snows will focus east of the lakes today before shifting northeast of the lakes tonight and Friday. This is when the heaviest snow will impact the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Lake snows will then shift north and west of these cities Saturday before dropping back southward Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... All the ingredients are in place for a major lake effect snowstorm, with more than ample lake induced instability, a cap averaging 12-15k ft, and periodic shortwaves which will provide additional moisture. Early this morning, there`s a well developed lake effect snow band off Lake Erie however the westerly flow is now directing the most intense snows to the south of our area. This area of lake effect snow will still produce snowfall rates 1"/hr across the Western Southern Tier. Expect bands to remain nearly stationary before weakening around mid-morning as a shortwave trough axis moves off to our east and strips away the deeper moisture. Meanwhile the band off Lake Ontario will become better organized, with radar trends suggesting this is already occurring. This is due to moisture from the shortwave and is also shown by most mesoscale model guidance. Snowfall rates of 2" can be expected, and there`s also a risk of thundersnow within about 15 miles of the lake. There have already been some lightning strikes with the most intense band off Lake Erie. Expecting a total of 10 to 18 inches in most persistent snows off Lake Ontario through this evening. Most of this snow will occur through early afternoon before the departure of the shortwave. Outside of these areas, today will simply be brisk and chilly with highs in the 30s and 15 to 25 mph winds. A second shortwave will approach the region this evening, which will shift winds to the southwest. Lake effect snow bands will move rapidly northward, reaching the Buffalo metro area around 8 p.m. The band will remain across the Buffalo area, but will meander slightly south late tonight following the passage of the shortwave. Moisture from the shortwave and the long fetch down Lake Erie will support an intense band with snowfall rates of 3"/hr and some lightning strikes also possible. The most persistent snows through daybreak Friday are likely to be from downtown Buffalo to the airport, and the Buffalo southtowns. By daybreak Friday, expect snowfall amounts well over a foot in some of these locations. Heavy snow will reach Watertown shortly after midnight, with heavy lake snows settling across the northern half of Jefferson County by daybreak. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr and some lightning strikes are also possible off Lake Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... For this update we will issue a lake effect snow warning for Niagara County, while converting the watch for Orleans to a winter weather advisory. A deep longwave trough will be established this period, funneling cold air across the Great Lakes. There will be a few shortwaves riding through this trough that will oscillate the bands of snow...with a subtle one Friday, and a much deeper one Saturday and into Saturday night. Off Lake Erie... A SW flow will direct a singular band of heavy lake effect snow up Lake Erie and inland across the City of Buffalo...the airport and out towards Batavia to start the morning. This band will remain fairly stationary through the day though there could be some varying persistence to the band, so this will still need to be considered. There continue to be hints of a weak shortwave trough moving through, veering steering winds to 250 direction. NAM and Canadian indicate this, but didn`t drift axis of heavier snow too far south. Local knowledge is once the band becomes developed, it is very hard to push it too far south. The strong convergence enhanced by the attempt at the band drifting south will just lead to impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet. This as the band of snow will be oriented along the long axis of the lake will produce very intense snowfall rates of over 3 inches per hour. Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will then not oscillate much into Friday night, this is where this band will have the best chance to produce feet of snow. The highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area (downtown and towards the airport with 240 wind) or just to the south to the south if wind direction veers to 250. For what it`s worth the snowfall record Friday for Buffalo is 8.2 inches set back in November 2000...a lake effect snow event that preceded the big November 20-23rd event that left many stranded and produced the greatest November daily snowfall of 24.9 inches on the 20th. Climatologically, the northern flank of this snowband will have a very tight gradient, while the southern flank will have accumulations fan out with lesser gradient. This tight gradient usually occurs when the lake is still warm as it is here with values in the lower 50s at the top of end of what is typical for mid November and with a cold airmass overhead as well as equilibrium levels up towards H5 or 15-20kft AGL. This northern flank is also where we expect the stronger inbound winds as well as the highest snowfall rates to occur. The higher lake equilibrium levels as well as well as increased lake instability may bring a few rumbles of thunder within the lake snow band. This may occur later Thursday night and through Friday night...with lightning possible over Lake Erie and to about 20-25 miles inland. The snowband will begin to drift northward Friday night as a shortwave trough drops towards the western end of Lake Erie. The backing winds will drive the heart of the snowband up towards Niagara County, while also brushing by Orleans. We will upgrade Niagara to a lake effect snow warning, while hoisting a winter weather advisory for Orleans...timing later Friday night through Saturday night. Behind this shortwave winds will veer, rather quickly and send the plume of lake snow southward passing Buffalo late Saturday night...and down towards the Buffalo southtowns and Ski Country by the end of the night. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Erie down towards Ski Country and the Southern Tier. This is a bit faster with the southward push, leaving the metro Buffalo area with very little if any snowfall during the day Sunday. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s, and around 30F near the Lake shoreline. Off Lake Ontario... Friday the lake effect snowband will be established over central and northern Jefferson County to start the day. The strong convergence leading to decent omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will allow this band of snow to continue through the day across Jefferson County with the snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour. The axis of greatest snowfall this period will likely be directed at Watertown and towards Philadelphia. Late Friday into Friday night seems when highest rates will occur. Though the snow band will not be oriented along the long axis of Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Lake Erie snowband is becoming more and more evident and will enhance the snows over Jefferson County. Here snowfall totals will also be measured in feet, and have kept the warning going. The snow band initially clipping southern Lewis with warning amounts will then clip the northern portion of the county Friday and Friday night. There is also a potential for thunder to occur within the more intense portion of the Lake snowband over Lake Ontario and into the western half of Jefferson County. Likewise to Lake Erie, the taller lake equilibrium heights and high delta T`s will create an environment that will allow for charge separation and lightning to occur. Ahead of a deeper shortwave trough, winds will back late Friday night and into Saturday sending the snowband up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley. The veering winds will lower snowfall totals some during the day Saturday as snow becomes more spread out. Also the veering winds over Lake Erie will likely direct the outer extent of lake moisture towards Prince Edwards peninsula and into Canada...with the Lake Ontario band then losing its upstream connection and lowering the intensity of the lake band. By Saturday night this upstream connection to Lake Erie will merge back into the Lake Ontario band, with the snow band structure increasing in strength...this as it drops southward across Jefferson County and northern Lewis. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Ontario down towards Oswego County, where a more impressive band of snow may develop with an upstream connection to Georgian Bay. Depending upon if this connection materializes, there could be at least advisory level snow amounts during the day Sunday to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, snow amounts will be less. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Off both Lakes... Winds will begin to increase during the day Friday. Gusts towards 35 mph near the shoreline will create blowing snow...that with the heavy snowfall will lower visibilities at times to just a few hundred feet. Travel late Thursday night and through Friday night will be very difficult. Outside of the lake effect snowbands the weather will be fairly quiet. Skies, while still mainly cloudy through the day Friday will begin to clear some Friday night and into Saturday. The clear skies Friday night outside of the lake plumes will bring a cold night, with overnight lows 10 to 15F across the inland Southern Tier as well as the southern Tug Hill. Apparent temperatures in these regions will drop into the low single digits Friday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prolonged upper level troughing will continue to remain across the Northeast Monday and into Tuesday before ridging across the Central and Northern Plains pushes across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Overall this pattern will support slightly below to normal temperatures through the early part of the week while introducing some dry weather by mid week. Looking into the details, initially the upper level troughing pattern will continue to funnel the cold air across the region Monday as high pressure sets up to the south of the region. This will place the region under west-southwesterly flow which will support lake effect snow showers east of both lakes to linger into Monday. Then, as the trough aloft pushes east, high pressure will engulf overhead of the area Tuesday and Wednesday introducing a break in the active weather. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR with pockets of MVFR CIGS outside of the lake snows. These will focus east of the lakes today, which will mean the only TAF site that`s impacted is KJHW. Visibility will frequently drop below a mile in snow through mid-morning. Major lake effect event will begin to impact KBUF this evening, with high confidence that heavy snow will move across and be near the KBUF terminal after around 01Z Friday. The band will be intense with vsby 1/4SM or less. The band will be across or near the KBUF airfield for most of tonight. It may briefly meander across KIAG, but any impact there will be temporary. The band will reach KART around 06Z Friday, also lowering vsby to 1/4SM in heavier snows. Outlook... Friday...VLIFR in bands of very heavy lake effect snow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Major impacts at KBUF and KART are likely. VFR/MVFR outside of lake effect. Saturday and Sunday...IFR/LIFR in meandering bands of lake effect snow east and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. VFR/MVFR outside of lake effect. Monday...MVFR/VFR with weakening mixed lake effect precip east of the lakes && .MARINE... The moderate to occasionally strong breezes will bring an extended period of SCA winds and waves on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this weekend. The strongest winds will be late Saturday night into Sunday when winds will approach gale force.

Buffalo is gonna be a great place for an EPIC lake effect snow jebwalk!

Is that 6 FEET of snow? I might have to go up there to dig them out of all that snow!

This is an historic opportunity for an epic jebwalk, right smack-dab into the Snow Zone!

Not sure whether this is the right subforum, but snow discussions are sure interesting. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a weak surface low exiting the region across the St Lawrence Valley, as a deep trough pivots across the Great Lakes region. Cold air behind this surface low will produce relatively disorganized lake effect precipitation through the remainder of the day. Temperatures early this afternoon continue to hover in the 30s, marginal enough to allow for a mix of rain, snow, and even some graupel to fall east of the lakes. A rapid changeover to all snow will occur this evening as cold air continues to pour into the region, with LE activity becoming better organized. This will mark the beginning of our prolonged, significant lake effect snow event. For accumulations today however...A few inches of wet snow can be expected across portions of the Boston Hills, Wyoming County, and Chautauqua Ridge by nightfall...And a more widespread slushy coating across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region. Heading into this evening, lake effect will be intensifying off Lake Erie, while the intensity really ramps up off Lake Ontario during the second half of tonight. The intensifying lake effect will be partially due to the removal of diurnal mixing, but more importantly due to a deepening colder airmass, equilibrium levels (cap) shooting upwards of 15-17kft as the mid level trough approaches, lowering of DGZ into much better moisture field and strong lift within the DGZ. With that said, have upgraded Wyoming and Lewis counties to Lake Effect Snow Warnings. The warmth of Lake Erie will promote thermal surface troughing and a 10 deg or so backing of the flow. This will direct the heaviest lake snows closer to the lakeshore so that the northern portion of Chautauqua, northwestern Cattaraugus, far western Wyoming and southern Erie county receive the brunt of the snow. There will be a lesser impact of warmer lake waters on the steering flow off Lake Ontario, but still expect the band to be some 5-10 miles further north than advertised by most guidance. This will target the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug (southwestern Lewis county) and much of Oswego county. Snowfall tonight east of Lake Erie will range from 5-10 inches near the Chautauqua ridge/northwestern Cattaraugus and western Wyoming county, to possibly near a foot across some of the higher terrain across southern Erie county. Snowfall rates of 1"+/hour could occur across portions of southern Erie county late this evening into the early overnight hours. Off Lake Ontario expect 3 to 6 inches over a good portion of Oswego county east across the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug Hill in southwestern Lewis County, with the bulk of that coming during the second half of tonight. Given the amount of lift, higher cap and depth of the mixed phase layer, have kept some thunder and lightning in each area of lake effect...staying within 10-15 miles of each lake (ie. source of instability). Low temps will be in the 20s across the area tonight. A 270-280 flow will be in place over both lakes on Thursday with a similar capping inversion height. Lake effect snow will continue off both lakes, however the heaviest snow will fall across Oswego and southwestern Lewis county Thursday morning when snowfall rates may top 1"/hr impacting the morning commute. An additional 6-10 inches of snow is expected here during the day, again with a good portion of that falling during the morning hours into the early afternoon. Off Lake Erie, additional daytime snowfall will range from 3 to 5 inches across the warned areas. Overall, the lake effect machine will weaken some later Thursday afternoon, before quickly ramping up again later Thursday evening. Outside of the lake effect areas, expect just mainly partly to mostly cloudy skies. Otherwise, it will be brisk and chilly with high temps ranging from around the freezing mark across the higher terrain to mainly the mid 30s across the rest of the area.

Even so, I hope and pray that the East gets ALL the Vodka Cold this winter! And all the deep snow!

You're gonna do better than that this winter. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST----- Beware of the impending cold! Storm tracks are also setting up for massive snows in the mid atlantic in DJFM. Cosgrove says it all, even mentions 13-14!!! -------------------------- I have been very candid with my ideas about how the later fall and the winter months will turn out. This is not a typical La Nina episode, and in fact it is sharing some similarity to the previous two years in that mild/warm spells may occur in the U.S., but those never seem to last. In fact, you can easily see some similarities to November/December periods in 1983, 1993, 1995 and 2013. There is a presence of cAk vortices at 500MB into southern Canada; expansion/stretching/splitting of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex; and strong southern branch influences even in the presence of -ENSO signatures. A break toward milder air in much of the lower 48 states seems probable in the last days of November, and possibly in the first week of December. But gaze at those 10MB maps. A huge stratospheric cold gyre drifts from northern Russia into Arctic Canada. There is usually a reaction time on a surface imprint or reflection in temperatures of anywhere from two to four weeks. The steering level, 500MB level will assume some resemblance to the cold core aloft. I notice that a -AO/-NAO signal appears in about 15 days; if so, the bitter cold, far worse than what is seen now, will regroup and press toward the lower 48 states. The southern branch disturbances that I have discussed are also important. The current track scenarios are roughly California/Texas/Georgia/Massachusetts/Nova Scotia. But with increased presence of Arctic cold, and deeper full-latitude troughs, the cyclone pathways may sag further south. If so, the snowpack and freeze lines could drop down. The period between December 7 and 21 will prove critical to how the rest of the winter turns out. That would be a match for the stratospheric actions, the one place where the numerical models have been consistent on synoptic evolution. Because if the 10MB, 500MB and boundary layer outcomes keep repeating, the same sequence of weather events will re-occur in January and February. ------------------------------------ Remember folks, remember that the Jebman warned you first about this upcoming winter in the mid atlantic! It is setting up, and you folks are LONG OVERDUE for a frigid snowy winter! You are going to be on a heater, and Bob Chill is going to need a truly Brobdingnagian Face with what is going to be developing in the models! Stock up on whatever it is that you use to stay up. You're gonna need it.

We have been nice and warm down here, I have been enjoying my Early Girl tomatoes fresh right off the vine. We got off real easy last night, it was supposed to hit 28 degrees and freeze everything. We got off with 37 and my tomatoes are in perfect shape. Its been chilly with 50s in the daytime, I want my 80s/68 dewpoints back, but at least we dodged the frost. I love how I am living so far south, that in December everyone is wading azz deep in wind driven snow, all while I relax next to our blue pool in a nice t-shirt in 70s weather.

It's gonna be! Mid Atlantic is gonna get absolutely demolished by snow and frigid cold.

You guys are on the east side (the warm side) of this trough, but once that frigid cold front hits you, temps will be 20-30 degrees colder than normal. You guys in N VA will be in the 20s for highs. Its FREEZING COLD here in South Texas. We are being subjected to cold highs around 53 and lows below freezing. Remember that normal January highs/lows down here are 59/41. I am used to 83/70 in November, think it is quite cool in fact. I wear light jackets at night in 68 degree dewpoint weather with an 18mph south wind off the Gulf. I have really adapted to this climate! But you all in the mid atlantic are gonna get frozen but good by this once it hits you. You will have deep winter highs and lows in N VA once that front gets to you. In mid November. It's this early and we are already facing killing frosts in South Central Texas! I spent 6 hours this frigid afternoon covering pipes, plants, checking on the dogs, cats and elderly friends. Its supposed to STAY in the low/mid 50s for TEN DAYS! Meteorologists are even saying we might have a day of highs only in the upper 40s! Our normal January high temperatures are not that low! That, is absolutely unusual for us at this time of year! We usually cool down for 2 days then it is back to the refreshing breezes off the beloved Gulf of Mexico! Not anymore. Never forget, the winter will always remember November. This, is going to be a horrendously frigid winter, ESPECIALLY back East in the mid atlantic, where the troughs are gonna stick around forever. The Mid Atlantic is long overdue for a record cold, record snow winter, which you are assuredly going to get this winter. Enjoy!

You mean the Deadskins lol. Just to remind everyone - Your average high and low are 59/41 - which happen to be Buda Texas's average January high and low, lol.

DC Region is overdue for a frigid, snowy, jebwalk-packed winter. You're gonna get it this winter.

You are probably referring to 2009-2010. That winter we had THREE Blizzards. I remember it because dad and I were trying so hard to come home from Hollywood Casino during one of the snowstorms, we had to turn back because the damn clouds and snow made it near impossible to drive. We had to turn back and I won a thousand dollars and change on the slots.

Gonna see two things in the Mid Atlantic this winter: Lots of deep troughs, and an increasingly active southern jet stream. Stock up NOW on whatever enables you to stay up for days on end analyzing model runs. You're gonna need it. Mid Atlantic is going to get buried in snow alive. You'll be crawlin' out of your second story windows, the snowpack will get so deep. DT is gonna be WOOF'n a LOT, and Bob Chill is gonna need a much bigger FACE.

I've watched numerous vids of the damage. My heart is torn to shreds. Poor people, homes are gone, they are homeless and refugees and their neighborhoods are no more. We need to send lots and lots of aid! Floridians need our help like never before! I might go down there with a Jebman Shovel and try to dig sand off the Ft Myers roadways.

Just WOW. What an EPIC writeup!

Coastal South Carolina should look out for heavy rain and possible tropical storm force gusts, as well as a modest surge threat. Stable air farther inland will work against heavy rain there.

Be very, very careful what you wish for.

Check out this time lapse radar of Ian https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/28/us/hurricane-ian-florida

That's because they gonna get 5 inches of rain from Ian and you might eke out 2 lol

This is NO time for a jebwalk.

Key West Cam https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ Look at those waves already!