Jebman

Windspeed has a good explanation here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60838-tropical-storm-beryl-hurricane-watch-mouth-of-rio-to-sargent-texas/?do=findComment&comment=7344239

The storm is NE of guidance and models are trending north and east. This is one we gotta keep an eye on til it does LF. My wag is probably Houston.

I might take your advice.

True enough.

This Texas LF gets far enough east, Austin may be in the clear. That, looks increasingly likely. Very good news. This could even turn out to be a New Orleans LF. I can feel the incredible relief and rising joy, kind of like the way people felt when WWII was over!!!!!!!!

if it moves N along the coast, we may end up with some rain then it passes north and hopefully east of us at good speed, 100+ temps and sunshine can continue the normal July dry out and warmup on into August here.

Now we need to see how strong this gets after the Yucatan LF, then exactly where it makes its TX LF then how fast or slow it moves and the track over TX will determine rain amounts. I think we can handle 5 inches, but don't think we will see that much. Two inches would be fine. That would put us at 30 for the year. This is the latest disco from NWS for South Central Texas. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The surface boundary weakens and dissipates Saturday night into Sunday. Forcing wanes leading to showers and thunderstorms gradually ending. Seasonally hot temperatures are expected. As mentioned in previous discussions, focus then turns to Hurricane Beryl and its impacts on South Central Texas. It will move into a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge caused by an upper level trough over the Central States. The exact track and speed remain uncertain for early into middle of next week. Though it may enter an area of weaker flow aloft by mid week. In addition, a surface boundary sags south into Central Texas while a weak tropical wave (formerly Invest 96L) moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Forcing by these features will generate areas of rain and showers with light to moderate instability allowing for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. PWs of 2 to 2.5+ inches and possible slower cell motions indicate a potential for efficient rainfall processes to allow for heavy rains, possible nighttime core rains. The heavy rains will likely be the main threat from Beryl. There remains a potential for strong winds, although this remains uncertain. This will depend on the amount of weakening based on the interaction with land after landfall along the northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coast. At a minimum, gusty winds seem possible in rain bands. Finally, depending on the track, there is a non-zero tornado threat along and east of its track. Any of the impacts are highly dependent on the track and strength of Beryl. It is too early to determine rainfall totals for our area, however there is a potential for multiple inches along and near its track. Due to the extensive clouds and areas of rain, temperatures, especially highs, will be below normal, possibly well below normal. Stay tuned for updates as this situation evolves.

We better hope this is only a tropical storm. Or a depression. And that this DOES NOT SLOW DOWN.

Okay, this could be good. Well east of us means real hot and dry and no wind!!!!! Wow man I am gonna throw a par-tay if this happens and we end up super dry and super hot! When a TC is east of us, that is what happens, we get awarded clear very hot weather with no wind. Might be downsloping effects, but hey, I am no Met. Now just wait a cotton-pickin minute. CREEPING up the coast? I thought this system was gonnabe a pretty progressive mover? Yeah folks, I realize I am really easy to troll.......

Okay, inland track is not your focus. I am just concerned that this thing will pull a gigantic Brobdingnagian plume and associated tropical rain band out of the GoMex onto Buda, those tropical showers can be ferociously efficient, it dont take much to smash us with 12 inches of rain in a very short time, TC's tracking southwest of our location can do that........... Anyway Benchmark, thank you very much for your analysis. You do an exemplary job!!!!

40/70 so your high LF risk means places like Austin are completely out of the woods, 100 degree weather, few puffy cumulus and maybe a few 14 mph gusts, 40 percent chance of rain ? I am no forecaster but hoping that Beryl will be so weak, and so far south, that I will get to have my beloved 105 weather with a blistering Texas sun and a 5 percent chance of a stray tropical shower and 10-15 mph winds. I would rather have an EXTREME, 25,000 YEAR DROUGHT, than have a doggone hurricane in Buda. In other words Get that doggone tropical system the heck out of south central Texas. Its July. Its supposed to be HOT, DRY, and blistering SUN.

This is extremely serious. Its a developing La Nina as well. WE are all in very grim deep trouble this summer and fall, all along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, possibly well up into the Northeast.

That, is not even funny. I do NOT want 6 feet of rain in Texas or Mexico. Thanks for trolling me, Boone lol. Hey, it worked!

I am hugging the CMC like a long lost lover.

Yeah it does look more concerning for Texas but the system IS showing some slow weakening. Max sustained winds at 115mph is sure better than 165. Beryl is not going to slow down and be like Allison. As long as she keeps on moving, should not be too bad. We can handle a few inches of rain, if we even get that.

Two members on the thread. Beryl is weakening apace. Thank goodness. The GoMex Coast need worry no more. Shear is tearing Beryl apart. We can hope, and I will hope enough for millions of people all along the GoMex Coast, in the Caymans, and on the east Yucatan Coast.

Central pressure is up to 961. That's up from the mid 930s. It's getting weaker.

Its just like the Energizer Bunny...........it keeps going and going and going......... GaWx!!! That is great news! It is down to 130 mph! Maybe that shear and dry air finally starting to wear Beryl down!

The Tampico region has had lots of rain from Alberto and other systems recently.

Beryl is moving so damn fast nothing but a catastrophic Texas LF is ever gonna weaken it. It will LF and probably take its sweet time weakening. This thing has got a truly Brobdingnagian number of tricks up its sleeve. It is the Steven Seagal of storms and it has a superior attitude! Its kickin all our asses and its got Buda Texas in its sights.

One thing I always read into these tropical threads is that when they get super slow like this, it is an eminently excellent thing - because the storm is weakening, and people's interest is lagging. Therefore, Mexico and the Texas Coasts are that much safer. Shear and plenty of dry air must be sluggin' it out with Beryl, and Jamaicans will catch a break, thank goodness. Beryl must be totally exhausted by now. Even anomalous storms must take a break! Look, I can always keep dreaming, and I can keep on hoping ----- Right to the bitter end.

180 mph surface winds estimates. I hope that we dont end up with a 180 mph hurricane. Isnt 165 mph bad enough? I sure hope that this anomalous hurricane stays the heck OUT of the GoMex! Those waters are VERY warm!

Models are showing a pretty good probability of a NE Mex LF. Hopefully we can get this storm to weaken some before then.

It is improving, right in time for Jamaica. However, I have hopes for these people because the construction of these structures in that part of the world is much better than in the US.

Take all the model tracks, just pick the middle. That would likely be NE Mex.