Jebman

Don't look now but something is definitely percolating over the Campeche Region. This area and tropical weather are getting to be like the energizer bunny. It just keeps going and going and going and going and going.....................

That's ridiculous. It's supposed to be that hot in Austin, but today it was 71 there with tropical rain and a northerly wind.

Well, I wanted rain. I wanted to deliver tonight but the moderate rain keeps falling. I can not even get the TRASH out, it is raining so much lmao. Need to take my own advice: Be careful what I wish for lol. After all my bellyaching last night about the storm fizzled out - this post needs about a million lmao's.

Ha ha Corpus Christi is stuck under a Gulf streamer that just keeps dumping rain on them. They might end up with 24 inches overnight.

I must say I have been pleasantly surprised by some steady moderate rain today, although I am brimming with jealousy over deep south Texas getting a foot of torrential rain. I wanted that so bad!!!!!!!!! Those warm clouds extend up to 14500 feet, and I wanted those efficient warm cloud processes SO BAD in my backyard! I never wanted torrential biblical rain so bad in my life! I craved George BM intensity ultra efficient tropical showers!

Corpus Christi AFD states another system will affect their CWA next weekend. Could this be invest 92 or 93L?

This is a very interesting pic of Alberto: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

000 WTNT41 KNHC 191448 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center. This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto. Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves inland through the day. Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or 270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S. builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time Thursday morning. Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30 degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday. A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then. Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly, the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/191448.shtml

Rain forecasts continue trending sharply downward. There is a devastating cutoff line positioned south of Buda. It will not give an inch, or one billionth of a nanometer, either. I am S out of luck here. Potential Tropical weather system or not, Austin will likely be partly cloudy tomorrow with highs in the 90s amid 80 degree dewpoints whilst areas south of I 10 get smashed by super efficient rain showers boasting rates to 3 inches per hour. Corpus is in line for at least 12 inches, maybe 16. This is quite normal for us. If you love dry weather, I can't think of a better place than Buda Texas. Nina Summer is kicking off, starting with a PTC One rain shutout. We can pray all we want. It's going to be bone dry probably well into 2025, with soil cracks big enough to fall into and break your frackin' leg, and the prospect of a triple year Nina means extremely grim water prospects lie just ahead into the next few years. With all the people moving into my part of the world, accompanied by Brobdingnagian amounts of apartment construction, I will wager you we will all soon be trying to drink from the Colorado River, with predictably horrific outcomes culminating in the late 2020s Diaspora. Enso cold or hot, it does NOT matter. Neutral enso does us absolutely no good. Dry is who we ARE! We will always be BONE DRY. Welcome to Texifornia. This is our fate. Drier, and super hot, until we flee this part of the world. Bank on this. The Diaspora is Coming. I am JEALOUS OF HOUSTON. They are getting hit by super efficient rain showers right now. They always get ALL of the doggone rain! I wish I lived in Cherrapunji, India, in a year in which they had a monsoon 2500 percent of normal. I want rain so bad! I want water everywhere! EDIT: one half inch is expected now in Austin. No surprise. This thing is FIZZLING OUT. New forecast, Buda on Weds, high 97 with 80 dews. Partly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of a light passing shower. Not even wetting rains. PTC One has completely fizzled out. Nada. What else is new under the blistering sun.

NWS is picking up on the model runs - and has trimmed rain amounts lol. No surprise there. Imma thinkin about a road trip to the coast, just to get my rain fix and maybe a little overwash fix too lol.

Hey wxmx, stay safe down there in Monterrey.

IF we could get the rain. I'd love to see 2-5 inches tomorrow here in Buda BUT models are shifting the heavy stuff south. Nina summer/autumn does not look good for us, much drier, hotter in Nina.

No surprise. Gulf storm rain shield will be well south of Austin. I will get about one one thousand twenty fourth of an inch of rain from 91L. This is about fifteen sigmas above normal for moisture from a tropical system in the Austin region in June. Gradient will be heartbreakingly sharp. I should have known not to get my hopes up for rain. I know where I live now, June is the beginning of the arid season. Austin is often California dry in Nina years, but on the other hand, we laugh at hurricanes hitting us. But I still watch and pray for the Texas coast. They DO get hit, and bad. Corpus may get 18 inches. They may get South Florida'd.

Isabel was BAD. I remember going to the OBX 3 weeks after Izzy. Houses on the beach, trees snapped off at 6 feet along I 64, beach access ramps smashed to hell, lots of hotels in Nags Head were smashed up and washing around in the high tide wavewash.

444 WTNT41 KNHC 172054 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h. While there are differences in details due to the disorganized nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The global models suggest that some deepening of the central pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening. There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never become a tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/172054.shtml

Invest 91L is now classified as a Potential Tropical Cyclone in the southwest GoMex. It may become Alberto. They are expecting some rain in south central Texas, especially on Wednesday.

New Orleans is going to get a LOT of rain in the next 5 days. Most of that moisture feed is going due north. Big Easy might want to start building an ark lol. On the one hand, Austin goes bone dry from mid June thru Christmas. Rain is rare here. On the other side of the ledger, hurricanes affecting us is extremely rare, one every 135 years. I'll be long gone by 2259. We do droughts like a boss but we dont have to worry about tropical stuff very often.

This is highly concerning. I am hoping that this upcoming Nina will be as unconventional as the Nino was last year, meaning we have elevated SSTs but somehow hardly any hurricanes form and those that do recurve safely away from US interests. And, that this upcoming winter turns out the opposite of Nina climatology with cold temps and decent amounts of snow for the entire Mid Atlantic Region in 2024-2025.

Yep. First its gonna hit the western Gulf States or Mex then head straight for the Mid Atlantic.

Keep an eye on the GoMex. Might have something develop then hit Mexico or even extreme deep south Tex later this week.

There is some disturbed weather in the southern GoMex today, signs it may get its tropical act together and hit up the Gulf States including Texas with considerable rain, then head eastbound and the DC Region would be next. Need to keep a weather eye on the Gulf.

I feel ya. Used to survive in the Dale City Region 6 years ago. Come to south central TX, but beware there is a TON of construction down here. Sometimes I wish I lived in the central Rockies, or in the Yukon Territories, or even in the Australian Outback. Anyplace with a few people, nearest city is 100 miles away, and no one there has ever seen a construction machine in 50 years. I am sick to DEATH of construction and development. Its turning everything it touches into a total hellhole that would have the devil himself drooling with covetousness. I know I am being self centered here but sometimes I wish I could have an entire PLANET, an earthlike planet, to myself and maybe about 20 other people and construction was outlawed for the next 2500 years. Give south central Texas 5-10 years. Welcome to Coruscant, because that is what we will be. Every tree will be gone. Concrete for hundreds of miles in every direction. Brobdingnagian taxes and traffic jams. General weather patterns about 30 degrees hotter and 60 percent drier.

This is a very bad situation in south Florida. Those folks need help from outside the catastrophic flood zone. Hopefully drier air can filter in there and allow the waters to recede soon.

Just asking, Florida weather enthusiasts. Why don't you have a Flood thread up in here? Hey, south Florida is getting obliterated by 10 inches plus of rain, on top of what they already got in the past few days! This amounts to a historic west Florida Gulf Coast storm, a HWFGCS.

South Florida is getting George BM'ed really bad by ridiculous rains.