Jebman

Some communities have eclipsed a foot of rain already. Storm is not even there yet. Providence help the mountains. They could get 25 inches of rain.

This storm is so large and getting so strong, can not help but realize if it were landfalling in Corpus Christi, with that 16 mph forward momentum, Austin would be absolute toast. Prolly 12 inch rain and 90 mph wind gusts damn. Very very thankful that instead of Helene we have 83/60 conditions with puffy fair weather cumulus and delightful light northerly breezes.

That forward motion is a good thing, 16 mph.

That's a lot of talk.

Be very very careful what you wish for, You just might get it, and then some! Stay safe!

I am very very happy this is NOT going to hit Texas. That forward speed is going to be very bad for high damaging winds well inland. If Helene were smashing into Corpus, I'd be running northwest as fast as I could, probably all the way to the OklaTex border, maybe with a detour to WinStar Casino. We have been SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fortunate this season. Every TC is smashing into New Orleans or well east.

How bad are things looking with respect to antecedent rainfall in the past ten days in those regions?

With the speed this system may move at, maybe the Washington Metropolitan Region gets a good strong wind/torrential rain hit off of it.

Sorry. I forgot those.

Fast mover means much less chance for excessive freshwater flooding.

Look, I don't want this storm to hit anyone. That said, I am so glad we have a nice hot ridge protecting Texas!

I kid you not, I saw some falling snow on Mammoth at 9000 feet! 39 degrees!

I want you guys to get buried in frigid snow so bad. I wish I could be correct about THAT for once. I want some moisture laden low pressure to stall right at what would be the 40/70 Benchmark for the DC Region alongside a frigid airmass, and just snow and snow and snow for days and days and days throughout the Mid Atlantic, piling up to absolutely unprecedented Brobdingnagian depths, and so cold that not a one flake melts, along with a refreshing 33 mph northeasterly breeze blowing the snow all over the entire Washington Metropolitan Region for days and days under very dark somber grey skies with cloud decks set at 100 feet. We'd see the usual deathbands setting up over the usual places and just dumping snow for days, but also dumping snow everywhere else as well! It would utterly make my day to witness the incredible happiness in this sub!!!!!!! And then about 8 days later, another snowstorm does the same thing again! And we call this the PSU Blizzard of 2025! BTW, Buda's average high temperature just fell to 89.

Well I think this winter is gonnabe frigid and snowy all up and down the East Coast but especially in the Mid Atlantic. You can take that to the Bank.

Thanks guys but you all are the REAL forecasters! Look, a broken clock is correct twice a day. It was Beginner's Luck, kind of like the time I won 500 dollars playing Sun and Moon at Charles Town back in March 2010.

Wait a cotton pickin minute! You guys say I WON? That's RIDICULOUS! I am only a weather weenie!

I am SOOOOOOOOOOOO sorry I missed this. I was so busy with outdoor work this spring/summer.

Right off the bat, I expect average snow tallies all over the region this winter. PSU may get buried alive with 200 plus percent snow.

Well done, George BM! I forgot all about your forecasts because I am tracking some other business ongoing in our Nation that I likely wont mention here.

Is Francine really slowing down over Louisiana dumping a lot of torrential rain?

We have really dry air over us in Aus, should keep Francine well southeast, though I feel exceedingly bad for Louisiana. Its 87/50 here with relative humidities 35 percent. Feels very early November like for us south Texans lol. It got down to 53/46 this morning at 5am!!!!!

Well I might stand corrected then. I guess I am holding out for a TC season with no more truly severe hurricanes. I know Beryl was one.

That's true, but we have been pretty lucky so far. Perhaps this tropical season will not be as bad as we first feared. I was hoping back in May, that we all might be spared a severe tropical season, in spite of relatively high sea surface temps and a developing La Nina.

I always hope for the best. Probably just wishful thinking, but who knows? Hardly any hurricanes, but plenty snow for the Mid Atlantic.

So happy the developing TC will LF in far east Tex. We have sure had it easy so far, in Austin. This is really not that bad of a hurricane season after all. Remember last year when the Nino was not Nino'ing properly? Well this year the Nina is not Nina'ing properly, either. Thats really good news for the southeastern and Gulf Coasts. We are gonna get off super easy this fall. We can turn off the ear shredding Klaxons and flashing red lights, now.