Jebman

Thanks guys but you all are the REAL forecasters! Look, a broken clock is correct twice a day. It was Beginner's Luck, kind of like the time I won 500 dollars playing Sun and Moon at Charles Town back in March 2010.

Wait a cotton pickin minute! You guys say I WON? That's RIDICULOUS! I am only a weather weenie!

I am SOOOOOOOOOOOO sorry I missed this. I was so busy with outdoor work this spring/summer.

Right off the bat, I expect average snow tallies all over the region this winter. PSU may get buried alive with 200 plus percent snow.

Well done, George BM! I forgot all about your forecasts because I am tracking some other business ongoing in our Nation that I likely wont mention here.

Is Francine really slowing down over Louisiana dumping a lot of torrential rain?

We have really dry air over us in Aus, should keep Francine well southeast, though I feel exceedingly bad for Louisiana. Its 87/50 here with relative humidities 35 percent. Feels very early November like for us south Texans lol. It got down to 53/46 this morning at 5am!!!!!

Well I might stand corrected then. I guess I am holding out for a TC season with no more truly severe hurricanes. I know Beryl was one.

That's true, but we have been pretty lucky so far. Perhaps this tropical season will not be as bad as we first feared. I was hoping back in May, that we all might be spared a severe tropical season, in spite of relatively high sea surface temps and a developing La Nina.

I always hope for the best. Probably just wishful thinking, but who knows? Hardly any hurricanes, but plenty snow for the Mid Atlantic.

So happy the developing TC will LF in far east Tex. We have sure had it easy so far, in Austin. This is really not that bad of a hurricane season after all. Remember last year when the Nino was not Nino'ing properly? Well this year the Nina is not Nina'ing properly, either. Thats really good news for the southeastern and Gulf Coasts. We are gonna get off super easy this fall. We can turn off the ear shredding Klaxons and flashing red lights, now.

We are getting lucky this season. If we can get thru Sept with very little hurricane activity, then maybe the rest of the season will be the same, more like a Nino tropic presentation than a La Nina setup.

Give it a couple more DC winters when you guys get annihilated by deep snows.

Its dry as a popcorn fart in south central Texas, and numerous cities around the country are casually beating our rain total this year. We have 37 inches. This will not happen again for quadrillions of years. We are still frantically mowing our grass. I enjoyed being ahead. Now everyone is beating us so bad. Even Death Valley will surpass us by Christmas. In a La Nina year the entire country will be 200 percent wetter than normal, except south central Texas. That's just the way it is. We are getting beaten so bad its worse than a certain lady getting a record number of electoral votes. Every community in America is beating Buda THAT BADLY with rain tallies! Its too bad I cant go live in Cherrapunji, India. Damn. No one will know, how dry I am. On a different note, the recession is now SO BAD, I may have to get rid of my 20 year old message board. This is super bad, I may never recover for ever, not even with 79000 feet of champaign powder in Palisades Tahoe.

Someone needs to Sig this.

This is a good time to head for Charles Town. They will get shellacked but good by Debby.

557 FXUS62 KRAH 080549 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across the mid-Atlantic will linger through Thursday. The center of Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest and onto the South Carolina coast this evening and then drift northward across the central Carolinas on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 923 PM Wednesday... * More widespread rain which will be heavy at times will spread into central NC tonight beginning a 12 to 18 hour period of the heaviest rain and greatest flash flood risk. Negligible changes with the evening update. The center of Debby is currently located just offshore near Charleston, SC. Water vapor imagery continues to depict moistening around the center of the circulation. As such, a persistent band of heavier rainfall (mostly 1.5 to 2.5 in/hr rates) has developed just to the southeast of Sampson county. CAMs continue to depict this heavier band expanding north-northwest over the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the next several hours, followed by up into the Triangle by daybreak. Consequently, these areas have the best chance to experience flash flooding overnight as strong 925 to 850 mb moisture transport provides a continuous feed of >2.5 inches of PWAT. The other concern as we continue into the overnight period is the chance for quick spin-up tornadoes. Thus far this evening, rotating cells have largely remained to our south (although a few have recently developed near southern Sampson county). Low-level SRH of ~150 m2/s2 remains anchored over the southern Coastal Plain. This moderately-strong low-level kinematic field will expand further northwest overnight. However, weak lapse rates and overall instability will promote only occasional weak circulations through Thursday morning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RAH&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

That's a nice slug of efficient tropical rain! It just keeps getting larger and hammering the same communities with steady efficient heavy tropical rain! Deb is just laggin along at only 3 mph. Rain tallies will pile up!

Wilmington is getting firehosed by training efficient tropical rains. Circulation is spinning over the coast and plentiful Atlantic moisture will slam into that entire region probably into the night. That trough is no damn good and Debby won't get picked up. This is NOT a very good situation. Deb will spin like a top and there's no shortage of moisture from that ocean.

Thats it Lets get that trough to pick Deb up and get her out of the Southeast.

The rain band is moving slowly north of Savanna. They just may catch a break that could lower totals, be less catastrophic.

How much rain are you expecting with Debby?

That run, is a NIGHTMARE. Throw it out.

Deb's remnants do not seem to be moving very much. I have been watching some of the news stations in the Hilton Head region, the forecasts are VERY alarming with torrential rains training over the same places for frackin' DAYS and DAYS.

Well perhaps Hilton Head gets 15 inches instead of 30 inches. That's a relief. Perhaps Deb gets picked up and ends up faster than forecast sparing the Southeast from historic floods.