MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Said this earlier. Going to be better than 10:1 ratios at times during this storm. Assuming things progress as currently indicated. You can get some high ratio snows in these deformation bands. Has much more to do with temps in the column and not just surface temperatures which at the peak of the storm should be in the mid to upper 20's. Again, assuming everything stays on track as indicated.
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Just not sure what more you could ask for with that depiction.
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Man oh man. Each run trends more favorable than the last.
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Yes and anyone to the west of the banding will be less than satisfied with all the sinking going on.
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A close in NAM-MING right there.
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Anyone if they have time can you post the progression of the 850 and 700 mb. maps. Just would like a visual of the mid level low tracks. Waiting to meet a friend and takes too long on my phone. Thanks in advance....if at all possible.
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I was not living here for that storm, was in far s.e. Morris County and I ended up with 16". Meanwhile a 15-20 min drive to my east that had 25-30".
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For my own greedy purposes I'd like to see the sfc end up to the south of KBID / KMVY by about 50 miles. Most favorable for inland spots of NNJ.
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I like that look to get heavier snows further N and W into NNJ.
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Notable shift northward with increasing amounts as would be expected given model trends last 12-18 hours. This map would cover the entire event for this sub forum. In my mind the biggest question now is where does the western and northern edge of the precipitation shield really drop off rapidly. Are we done trending or do we trend north and west a little more? I think most in this sub forum will be disappointed with less than 6" at this point, so where does that happen??? How far N and W do you have to be to miss out on the big stuff? Also, don't underestimate the dynamical lift this is going to be involved here, especially in banding. Ratios could exceed 10:1 in spots at times during the storm.
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Three day total here = .41". Snow depth is dwindling. With about 85% coverage I've got an average depth of 4". South facing lawns and slopes showing good amount of bare ground.
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Don, do you have any info on driest February's for NYC climate sites? Are we close to being in the top 3 to 5 driest assuming not much else falls this month?
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I'm at .31" for February as of this morning. Snowfall the season sitting at 36.8". Precipitation from 11/1 through today: 8.85". Between 11/1 and today only two precipitation events of 1"+. 12/19 - 12/20 and 1/25 - 1/26. Nothing else close to a 1" event.
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Not a good look going into Spring. Extreme drought now showing up in NWNJ. We need to start making up deficits in March and April in a big way to reduce the chances of water restrictions this coming late Spring and Summer, especially for NJ. The lack of widespread moderate to heavy precipitation events over the last 12-18 months has been impressive.
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For the first time in a LONG time I've got water trickling through my gutter downspouts! Nice sound I have to say. Gutters and downspouts have been solid ice for about a month now. Several houses in the neighborhood have had gutter ice dams cause indoor water damage. Lots of green Servpro vans in the area doing cleanup.
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Not worth quibbling about at this point by any means but if I could change things I'd like the ridge out west sharper and a little further west and the 500 closed low off the east coast to be w.s.w. by about 30 miles to ensure more inland locations (me) cash in fully. Otherwise I'll take it for now. For my area west and NW I like a surface low track west of the BM....more toward KBID/KMVY. Long ways to go for a final solution. Carry on.
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Track of 500 feature is ideal....as indicated. Remains to be seen how close to reality it is come Sunday night and Monday. A track as indicated would deliver the goods!
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It sure has the basics you want to see. Ridge over the intermountain west, perhaps a tad too far east but noise at this stage of the game. A 50/50 low. A northern branch s/w digging through the Ohio Valley with an already slightly negative tilt. Agree, at this point I'll take it and let the chips fall where they may. This is 5-6 days out and very far from a done deal either for a hit of some kind or a total miss. Most that can be said at this point is "moderate to strong storm signal for later in the weekend".
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My location lost all the new overnight snowfall during the day today and an additional little dent out of what existed prior. Should lose a good deal more through the rest of the week. The huge mounds are losing height VERY VERY slowly. Anything on the level is showing much more noticeable progress.
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1.3" here overnight from .08" liquid. M.T.D. precip: .11". M.T.D. snowfall: 2.0". Click map to enlarge.
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1.3" here from .08" liquid. M.T.D. precip: .11". M.T.D. snowfall: 2.0". Click map to enlarge.
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Got lots of Arborvitae shrubs in my neighborhood that have offered a good supply of food this winter. Many have been totally eaten and will never come back. Not sure why people plant those shrubs in particular with the deer population being what it is. It is like fine dining to them.
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ok...I think I will put my bagel and coffee off to the side for a while.
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Bring it ! Please!
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Without a significant turnaround during March and April can foresee water restrictions coming for the Summer season.
