MANDA

Control is insane. Saturday 18Z centered near Montauk at 967 and then sits and does a tight loop for next 6 hours before it starts to lift into the southen Gulf of Maine early Sunday.

Euro control coming in now and it looks like it is gonna rock and roll once again. In though 96 hours - 12Z Saturday with sfc low at 976 east of Ocean City and south Montauk.

Was still in high school but had access to the data. Yep, 72HR Spectral did a great job and it was a super success for the LFM which had a long string of failures. LFM never wavered. Still have some of the old (now nicely yellowed) difax charts. Was walking on air as a kid and watching the progress of the LFM cycles.

Looking at the GFS / CMC the track HAS shifted west from the 00Z runs for sure. That alone is not going to get it done at least for locations west of I95. Those two models are too late of a complete phase / bombing thus they would result in not a big deal event at all west of I95 and a so-so event for immediate metro. Central and eastern L.I. and SE NE would fare MUCH better. Make no mistake for this entire forum to meet or exceed expectations of 12"+ this has to close and capture further SW than indicated by current GFS / CMC. Long ways to go but these two solutions are possible. Main take away here is consensus is increasing for bombing low off or along the MA OR NE coast.

If 12Z euro can stay in the same ballpark and CMC/GFS can at least have some favorable trends then the RGEM and Euro maybe starting to sniff something out. KEY is going to be once s/w over the pacific makes it into the grid 12Z tomorrow and is fully sampled. That piece of energy and how it evolves is the major moving part in how and where this goes boom. Based on latest RGEM (which looks great) I would expected an interesting GGEM run shortly.

I'm not hyping the Euro control so don't take it that way. Should be treated as just another member. 06Z control continues very impressive and now has all of NJ in close to or just over 20" totals. Individual eps members also have increased in the number with now 17 members with 12"+ for KMMU. Showing a shift westward of higher totals. Two members @ 24 - 25". I like that Euro EPS is holding steady or even nudging west. That is the only take away here. Control is classic KU closing / capturing solution for NJ. Longs ways to go...just sharing some information here. Also, probabilities are rising as per a few posts back from another poster. I've been watching those over the last 24 hours as well.

Full EPS won't be out for a bit but EURO Control, while not as robust and intense as 18Z has southern half of NJ covered by 18-20" and that tapers to about 11-14" faw NW Sussex Cty with NYC and LI under 15-20". Mean is similar to 18Z with 10-12" eastern 1/3 of NJ up across NYC and LI. In both cases track is up toward MVY / ACK. Main difference from 18Z is more progressive sfc low and less capture and stall for a time. As a result, sfc low not quite as insanely intense as 18Z solutions. Still much time to watch and track this and no solution presented from 00Z runs are final. Like that EURO has had two good runs but long ways to go with a very delicate situation. SEE MAPS IN POST ABOVE

Most pay sites offer them. JFK control is 19". Two 20+ (max 27) and 22 with 12+ out of the 51

For CP: Two are 20+ (max 23) and 21 of the 51 are 12"+

Euro individual ensemble members for BOS are amazing, ISP very robust as well. MMU (my area) 14 of the 51 have 12"+ on a quick glance.

Euro control amazing. Full capture between Montauk and ACK with a 12 hour loop / stall before lifting out. Control should be treated as just one of the ensemble members but shows what could result. 00Z runs should be interesting.

Euro 18Z ensemble mean at 500 looks amazing only to be outdone by the control. Both imply bombing sfc feature abreast of NJ coast heading vicinity ACK Saturday night. PERHAPS a tad too late for interior NJ but control is 18-24" Jersey coast up through central/eastern LI, RI and into eastern Ma. Ensemble mean is 8-12" over same area. Strong signal this far out.

And at 90 it leaves very little behind in the southern stream. Extrapolated out I believe it would have been an interesting 102 and beyond. Still, LOTS of moving parts and best we can do is watch the trends. NOTHING is written is stone and likely won't be for a while.

A win for you AND the NAM !

Back to moderate snow here. Based on radar meaningful echos will be past this area in next 30 min or so. We'll see if can get anything additional this evening / overnight. Not expecting much.

Pure sleet here in Mt. Arlington now. Temp 21.5 degrees. New snow 3.6" right at time of changeover. Didn't think sleet would get this far NW. Just surged NW in a hurry. Win for the 3K NAM.

Final Mt. Arlington, NJ 1.2" - melted .10".

Absolutely agree. I'll take this for now. All options open at this point but have to like cold high banked to west and north. Opens the door to freezing / frozen precipitation especially inland. Thursday / Friday event looks like a "no go" for this forum but I will take this for now and see where it heads.

Breaks of sun now. Looks beautiful !

Breaks of sun now. Looks beautiful !

Final total here in Mt. Arlington is 4.1". Picked up .9" over last 2 hours. Just some S--/flurries wrapping up as of 3:45. Nice event to "freshen up the pack".

1:00 Mt. Arlington, NJ Total 3.2" with 1.2" last 2 hours. Light snow now and per radar back edge is heading this way. Maybe another 60 - 90 min tops before we are done here. Temp 26.4. Looks nice - snow sticking to everything. Easy to measure.

11:00 a.m. Mt. Arlington, NJ New snow since SB 8:00 = 2" over 3 hours. Temperature 26.6. Moderate snow ongoing. Based on radar my area of NW NJ is on NW fringe of the "good stuff". Better rates and totals coning in southeast of here. Thinking approx 4" for an event total here. We shall see.

9:40 Mt. Arlington Solid moderate snow. 26 degrees Snow began @ 7:50 Just ESTIMATE, have not been out yet but 1/2" looks like it has fallen over last 90 min or so.

Unreal. Just when it looked like OKX radar was about to be clear a large area of 20 - 30 dBZ returns blossomed over western 1/3 of Ct. Large area of steady light snow! Maybe a patch of moderate embedded? System just will not give up the ghost.