psuhoffman

Naw at the end it’s heading the same way the eps and weeklies are. And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes...

The only saving grace there would be hints the NAM state is flipping. Build the heights more over the top into GL and displace the trough out of the high latitudes and it could get better. But by then it’s mid Feb. let’s just hope that run smoked some funky stuff.

I mostly missed that Jan storm. My 2 biggest snows were the November snow and the March one. But your point is legit. I liked 2018 better though. The 6” in mid December was nice and kind of a surprise. There was a super cold clipper storm in January. One half decent snow in February and then I ended the year with a bang in March. 3 accumulating snows and one of them 14” that stayed otg a week even late March . I ended that winter feeling really satisfied. I had almost identical totals both years but last year felt “empty” for some reason.

It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope

“Whiff again?” What exactly are you chasing? March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”? Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it. But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that.

March 2018.

Cfs says mid Feb is worth waiting for I mean it has to be right eventually

Just like anywhere else elevation matters. I’ve been in Killington/Rutland for snowstorms several times. Last year I was there and Rutland got about 10” and Killington had 18”. Few years back Killington got 24” and there was about 12 in the valley. Just how it is. But it’s only a short drive up from Rutland so you can spend all day up at Killington to catch the “show”. They have some nice restaurants and bars up there. Don’t know what you’re looking to do. I would definitely take the trip up Sunday to Montpelier and Stowe. Nice drive. And they will get more snow. It’s climo. They almost always do in a storm tracking this far north. Plus Stowe will get upslope snow behind the storm. You can take the Ben and Jerry’s factory tour right outside Stowe. Another option is to check out Stowe during the day and stay at Burlington. Short drive. It’s in the valley and won’t get as much snow but it’s an awesome college town with a lot to do at night. Would be a cool place to spend the last night before heading home. Montpelier is a smaller quieter town but I’m sure you can find a bar anywhere. Just depends what you’re looking for. One last thing...if you do go to Stowe make sure you drive up the access road to the ski resort. Sometimes there is a significant difference in snow. Worth the 5 miles. I hope you have a great time. I’m taking a mini trip myself. My sister is watching the kids so I can take my wife to a little B&B in Gettysburg for the night.

He isn’t wrong though. If it did set up there more than a few days...barring a dramatic flip in the NAO, it would flood the CONUS with maritime pacific air and we would be in big trouble. But I don’t think that’s where the pattern is going right now. It looks transient imo. But if it’s not... When people make conditional statements that’s not the same as them making a predictor. He didn’t say February is screwed. He simply stated a fact that “if” the vortex sets up over AK “then” February is screwed. It’s a conditional statement and it’s accurate.

No it was a nice run imo. Would give us opportunities for snow in February for sure.

I don’t think it will stay there. To me it’s a transient look as the vortex traverses AK as an epo ridge establishes itself. That’s my guess given what the trop pac forcing looks like week 2. It looks ominous simply because it’s at the end and so we can’t “see past it”. But just because we dont get a dumpster fire pattern doesn’t automatically mean we get a great one either. But I don’t think it’s heading towards a permanent AK vortex pac puke pattern Before that I don’t share either extreme view. We likely get warm after the cold shot next week as the Hudson Ridge drifts too far south and temporarily links up with the mid latitude ridge. But there are ways the look could reasonably shift and suddenly be better. If the ocean storm next week were to phase with the NS and pull up into a 50/50. Or another yet unseen vort bombs into that space. The wave break from such pumps the ridge over the top and suddenly we get the colder look of some sporadic runs recently. It’s unlikeky but it’s one rather insignificant change in the longwave pattern that has a drastic effect. Another option is the day 10 storm helps to knock down the ridge to our northeast and sets the table for a threat day 12-15. There are ways to avoid a disaster within the look we are getting. But it will involve some luck. It’s flawed but not no hope.

Very nice weeklies run fwiw

One last thought...dunno if it’s too late to change but if you really wanted to see Stowe you could check the Montpelier area. It’s only about 30 mins away and it’s not in as much of a valley as the other towns so it does better with snow but far enough away from the ski resorts that sometimes it’s not as booked up.

Don’t know how long your up there but once the snow stops Stowe is about a 1:45 drive from Rutland. It’s a nice scenic drive. But at least make sure you head up to Killington. Isn’t a long drive. Its another world from Rutland. Whatever Rutland gets Killington will have at least double. You can check out the wobbly barn if youre looking for something to do.

I don’t put a lot of faith in anything past day 10. The EPS isn’t great but it’s a small adjustment from either good or bad. There will be adjustments. We will see.

How’s the fog?

It is. So that says our chances for snow are about normal, which for us isn’t very good. Lol however hidden within that are 2 facts...most of that comes day 12-15 from a specific threat. So that specific time period has some promise. And the pattern is mediocre but a slight adjustment from good. It’s not the same as a bad mean in a pattern with a ton of major flaws. That said it was a disappointing last 24 hours with the EPS. It hasn’t radically shifted any features but imperfections within the pattern have shown up to limit the probabilities.

That's not true...but it was a pretty bad run. It really goes crazy with the ridge in the northeast day 7-11 and its lights out on any chance there.... then there are a scattering of hits in the day 12-15 range but nothing to the level of the GEFS and GEPS. The pattern looks close enough to workable that it's not out of the question something changes and we sneak a threat in but the last couple EPS runs have not been friendly.

GEPS and GEFS both like the idea of a snowstorm somewhere in the mid Atlantic day 10-15

@RevWarReenactor did you decide where to go? Looks like most of Vermont got 3-4" in the Valleys and 5-8" in the mountain locations last night and this morning. Killington got 6". For the next system still looks about the same Anywhere along the mountains in Vermont look good for another good snowfall...if you have a passport and dont mind the drive Montreal looks like a good spot for high ration fluffy snowfall, they get that 10-15" from like .5 qpf...which isnt uncommon up there. Stowe looks look and so does North Conway in NH still. Stowe area in Vermont will get some additional upslope snows on Sunday evening into Monday also...

the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so.... But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10. LOL

How much snow did you get last week?

The overall look day 10-15 is about as good as we can ask for on the GEFS There is definitely high pressure heading into the day 10 threat...we just need slightly lower heights near 50/50 to hold it in... After that...this is an excellent looking pressure profile...temps...and precip for an east coast snowstorm...

I would not totally give up on the day 10 threat until its into the medium range. There is an obvious issue...the cold is very stale by then and with the amount of ridging in Quebec...if there isn't enough of a 50/50 to keep confluence and resist the southerly flow ahead of the trough we will torch. But...there are vorts flying around and some do end up in a spot that could help...but the majority of the guidance says they either don't amplify enough or are not in the right spot at the right time. One way to really increase the chances is if the ocean storm next week phases with the NS and gets pulled up into the 50/50 location. That would change the equation and guidance would flip to a colder solution right quick. But its not a high probability ATT. After that all the guidance opens a legit window as whatever happens better or worse with day 10 they all agree that wave WILL amplify and knock down the ridging to our northeast and create a favorable window behind it with a pretty good looking trough axis and ridging across central Canada. It's the best look we have had yet for a legit snowstorm. Of course that isn't saying much...its a pretty low bar.

The overall pattern looks ok. The day 10 upper level energy actually gets forced under us despite being in the upper midwest cut off... that shows the effect of the blocking regime in Canada...problem is it scours out all the cold first...the Ocean Storm doesn't phase this time and so it slides out too far south to impact the flow and thus the southerly flow ahead of the trough torches our temps. The storm is forced under the blocking but it doesn't matter. Details in the longwave pattern matter. After that is when we have a real shot according to all guidance. IF the long range guidance is close to right there is a legit good window day 12-15 and the GFS almost is a hit but the system is disjointed and fails to come together...too much NS interference and a sloppy phase. That would be a supreme example of "bad luck" in an actual very good pattern.