psuhoffman

I’m still optimistic for the window I’ve always felt good about. Funny thing is for a week I stuck to the feeling this wasn’t really going to work. The analogs to this pattern just aren’t big snow for our area. Small snow yea. But ironically after run after run of big snow I let myself start to think ok this might happen. Then it immediately went sideways. It’s not over. Not saying that. Just I should have stick to my gut and not started to get excited lol.

I was talking about for Mitch and my area. And to be fair it’s 1”, 3”, 2”

You’ve obviously not run into some of the beggars I have!

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month. But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it.

You have to realize most of the people dooming this are in northeast MD. I know you think you’ve had it bad but they’ve had it 2x worse. I’ve been lucky I’ve caught some of the SE edge of storms that went just to our regions north over the last 8 years like 2 weeks ago. But there is an area from Baltimore northeast in our forum that’s had absolutely no good snowstorms the last 8 years. Every single one fringed them. Some went north. Some did what this one is looking like. But it’s absolutely amazing. I keep saying it’s just random bad luck but my god. Combining both these points, imo it depends if we see a change in the orientation of the precip. The better runs had a SW-NE trajectory. This W-E trajectory won’t work. It’s not coming at us from a high enough latitude if it’s not amplifying and gaining latitude. If it was we would have temp issues because the thermal gradient is situated such that we need a wave that’s gaining some latitude as it progresses. Also in general the north trend is real in non blocking regimes but NOT when the wave is on a W-E trajectory. Waves that are gaining latitude tend to trend north. I’ve noticed through when a wave is not gaining any latitude on its way east it actually trends south more often. I think it’s just a product of the fact that if a wave isn’t gaining latitude it’s not amplifying but also it would take an error earlier in the process where the storm has to start out further north. The north trend is usually from models underestimating the feedback from the southerly flow ahead of the wave once it gets going not from a placement error of the wave as it ejects into the plains. TLDR version, if we bet to 72 hours out and this still has a W-E trajectory it probably is going to stay south. If it starts to take on a SW-NE trajectory we are good.

We already lost it. Last GEFS was awful. It was just a fluke the op was a wet north outlier.

Unfortunately there are places in here that are not in the same boat. If you are 50 miles south of DC you want a solution that is awful for me lol.

People are down about this week and don’t see an immediate threat to turn too and so they vent.

I said Feb 20-March 15 and I Fng meant Feb 20-March 15. Chill out y’all.

Trends can reverse at any time.

My point is the same. The pattern is good. That puts is in the game. But we can’t tell exactly what the outcome of the waves will be at that range. Just that our chances are higher than normal one amplifies near the east coast with cold around given the larger pattern.

IMO people are letting their frustrations over next week bleed into this thread. The guidance looks great for around Feb 20 which was my target all along. I knew snow before that while not impossible was going to be a battle. The mjo is heading towards the cold phases. Everything’s on track. If we had been in a torch pattern we would be excited by what we see coming.

I wasn’t being derogatory I was agreeing with you.

This is hard to get when people are hyper focused on their yard but the bitter truth is with our current level of technology and scientific understanding we don’t have the ability to differentiate between those two outcomes at that range. The difference is noise with minor changes that we can’t account for in initialization leading to those rather major differences that far out.

Don’t over react. One bad run doesn’t mean we’re doomed. I’ve never been overly impressed with the setup but even I know it’s close enough with enough lead time left not to lose interest. Welcome aboard. If we get a -3stdv block and the PV gets displaced into NF and it fails because we’re juts too warm and somehow with a PV that close the cold still can’t press soft enough for us…maybe we need to have the discussion no one wants to have again. Not in here though. Some post analysis thread. But I’m not going there yet. I am not ready to say blocking doesn’t work anymore because that’s our only path to truly big storms and big years. If we ever want 40” snow years like 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010 we NEED that. These epo patterns we’ve been relying on to get snow are not going to replace our historically best way to get big snows. They can’t. 2014 was an anomaly. We can repeat that same pattern 10 times and it’s not going to yield that much snow again. That was a fluke.

The guidance still shows a -AO block with a PV displaced into Quebec and NF. That’s a pattern that should yield us snow opportunities. Right? We can’t lock onto a specific wave to focus on because it’s still too far away. But history says that should yield something. Doesn’t always. Sometimes a good pattern goes to waste. Not every blocking regime leads to snow. Matter of fact lately less of them have been. We could discuss why that is.

I like when we’re on the same team!

The doom posts only bother you if you let them. Is it better to have a thread full of posts telling people how to feel?

Just a thought. But people can feel how they want. We don’t all have to agree or want the same things. Every time someone says they like it don’t like a run we don’t need 5 posts telling them why they shouldn’t feel that way! I have been as big an offender at this as anyone. I will own that and I’m going to try to do better myself.

Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know.

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.

I should specify, when I point out what I think is our most likely way to fail...it does not mean I think that WILL happen...just that is what to look out for if it were to all go wrong.

We are going to get a legit big dog threat somewhere...too soon to key on a specific wave yet but soon...

I guarantee with that surface track there would be a warm layer above 850, so the mix like is going to be well NW of the 850 in that setup. Just a warning. Plenty of time for it to adjust either way.