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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    We’re talking about the pattern coming up. Not the pattern we just had. Most of Dec and late Jan were bad. In between was a good pattern for about 4 weeks. Unfortunately we wasted a lot of it because the Dec pattern torched the whole continent and took weeks to get cold enough. We wasted a few very good opportunities and one perfect track rainstorm in that period. But the two bad patterns will mute the mean of the one good.
  2. psuhoffman
    Btw for when I do my post analysis I’m logging that this is now going to be the 3rd wave that takes a perfect track through central/southern VA and DC/Balt get no snow from it. I don’t mean the surface low SLP is highly affected by the thermal boundary and will be displaced if it’s warmer than it should be. But the wave (look at the SW track) was perfect. Yes the loading pattern to all 3 was not ideal. But guess what we used to snow often in a less than ideal pattern by getting lucky with a good wave pass. If we can’t do that anymore, because bad patterns torch the thermals so bad that even a perfect wave has no chance, then it’s going to impact our overall snow results in a season quite a bit because much of our snow came from fluky little things like that. We’re 0/3 now this year with perfect track waves in a bad pattern.
  3. psuhoffman
    The wave spacing has changed some. And the block not being as ridiculous, it’s still a very legit -nao just not some super historic monster, has maybe moved up the timing of the wave after PD a bit. That wave after the PD weekend now looks like around the 20th and has my interest.
  4. psuhoffman
    The point is if what’s been happening the last 5 years keeps happening we are totally F’d! We are going to be in -PDO possibly for a long time. They can last decades. During these cycles, especially in winter, the -pna dominates! It used to snow during these winters. Other pattern drivers used to overcome a -pna. You keep saying -pna like it’s some revelation. We’re in a deep -pdo cycle. The pna is going to negative like 80% of the time. We have to be able to snow in a -pna or we’re F’d.
  5. psuhoffman
    No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad! I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments. What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too! regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow. This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 1958 1964 1966 A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino. -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy! We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades! It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing. Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950! If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past.
  6. psuhoffman
    This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history. so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways! We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna.
  7. psuhoffman
    I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north.
  8. psuhoffman
    There was a redonculous retrograding block. It was short lived and then the block retrograded all the way into the mid latitudes as the tpv moved back in but for that week it was about as suppressed a jet as you can get. And it barely got the NS to dig enough to get under us. Im not saying it’s impossible to get the NS far enough south. But recently it sure doesn’t seem to be happening as often.
  9. psuhoffman
  10. psuhoffman
    We discussed this a while back as a possible thorn. The NS is simply not digging as far south. We don’t have to get into why. But the result is it’s very difficult to get a NS wave to phase in a way helpful to us with the STJ. Instead they run over the top of us and run interference. It’s a reason I’ve been bearish on scenarios that require a NS phase.
  11. psuhoffman
    Ok I did start this, but it was in reference to our current pattern. We should probably continue the sulfur and coming ice age discussion in the CC thread so the sensitive snowflakes that get the vapers when anything about warming is mentioned don’t show up to bitch and complain.
  12. psuhoffman
    Thank god
  13. psuhoffman
    Unfortunately what’s allowing it to come further north (a more relaxed flow than expected) is also allowing for thermal issues. We need that NS wave to play nice. Come across ahead and set the boundary. Or phase in behind. Riding right over the top is not going to work. It’s got a shot. I never said it didn’t. But it’s still more complicated than I like. I’m tracking it through. Just have nothing to add really.
  14. psuhoffman
    Seems pretty simple
  15. psuhoffman
    It’s not as bad as it’s been in the recent Nina’s but guidance is still showing a tendency for mid latitude and subtropical ridges to extend too far north despite blocking. Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. For the last 5 years I’ve heard “that’s a Nina problem not you know what, we have to wait for a Nino”. Well…
  16. psuhoffman
    Those storms had less NS interaction to figure out.
  17. psuhoffman
    Perfect track rainstorm lol
  18. psuhoffman
    Once I saw the blocking start to go nuts on progs mid Feb it was a matter of timing when it would peak and start to relax some. Adding up all the variables around Feb 22-25 made sense. As we get closer the signal has only gotten stronger.
  19. psuhoffman
    There’s my baby
  20. psuhoffman
    Chuck did research
  21. psuhoffman
    Is there a way for a winter to be so bad it subtracts snow from other winters?
  22. psuhoffman
    We really did crack the code. But we have to use this judiciously. With great power comes great responsibility
  23. psuhoffman
    Dude
  24. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker tell him
  25. psuhoffman
    Or something else also I don't know how to What something else were you alluding to here? Like I said it would be nice to just stick to the topic instead of alluding to this or that... Two other threads and an entire section of the website itself to panic about "something else". That was last night to someone else and I did as much as possible to reply to a legit question honestly without going into a warming discussion. But that post also had nothing to do with the conversation you were responding to which I also was careful to avoid directly getting into any CC discussion. If your mad that the replies simply allude vaguely to the fact it is warmer then grow TF up and deal with it. But nice bait and switch attempt. I suggest you stop. For the record I’m done playing nice with anyone who tries this Fng BS nonsense anymore. If a question or legit discussion comes up that is ancillary related to warming and I or someone else responds as innocuously as possible but inevitably the reply just alludes or only hints to the fact warming exists and this hurts your fragile ego I suggest you suck it up and cope some other way than passive aggressive attempted to shut down any mention that it’s warmer in a weather discussion.
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