psuhoffman

Sometimes something can just be random. That’s gambling. And betting on warm given recent trends is smart. But they don’t have any super special insight we don’t. Except maybe if I had money riding on it I’d be a little more conservative and cautious about going cold or snowy. I had reservations. I knew the risks that the Nino wouldn’t offset the recent base state. Maybe if I had money riding on it I would have considered that even more.

You gonna piss of the snow gods and they will revoke our special powers

Get on that phone instead.

This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that.

not with this type of system, the heaviest snow will be quite a bit north of the R/S line probably

it looks like garbage through about March 20th, then shifts the trough east in time for us to get cold rain in April.

There were a few who got it right and for the right reasons...said the nino would fail to overcome what has plagued us recently.

the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug First week of March 7 days ago and now

Or it could have been even worse. I might be wrong, but I don't think the failure of that wave to be a cutter is what went wrong. First of all, there were runs back like a week ago on guidance before that wave became a cutter the first time before it trended south then north then south again lol, where it still initiated a block. And that wave did bomb out and become a monster 50/50 and does wave break a ridge into the NAO domain, but then it phases with the TPV and lifts up into the NAO space itself and cuts off what was going to be the developing block. I think those smaller scale wave features are more an effect not a cause. For months guidance got to the block through slightly different means, different wave breaks, then suddenly it went poof. I dont think one wave break is what went wrong.

given recent history why would you EVER not be worried about being too warm?

I wouldn't base anything on the 12k NAM at range. But we really want to be in that northern qpf max, the one up in PA on this run, not the southern one. It's always that northern max that ends up with the most snow in these NS boundary waves even if its less qpf.

Fixed...now you can simply copy and paste this post and it applies to everything all the time

they should do it like the ICON and release the panels in non chronological order

It was a few years ago now, unfortunately the last couple years were difficult and I wasn't able to set something up, but I would really like to again this summer sometime. It was really fun last time we had a get together. Hope you can make it. I'll start a thread soon to coordinate setting something up.

on the same run, now that will be some sheet It will miss us to the south, phase with the polar vortex, then fujiwara back around from the northeast and NE MD Crushed destroyed pulverized

I'm always down to meet up, but I have the kids this weekend. I might try to host another BBQ at my place this summer if there is any interest.

If the timing and track remains how it looks now...precip probably starts with temps around 35, the problem is it gets into the 40's in the DC area on Friday and clouds roll in before dark. But temps drop quickly to 31-32 or so once precip starts. Down to 30 or so by the time it ends.

about 20 miles north is better...Conway gets a lot of snow but they are south of the spine of the Apps and they are vulnerable to thaws. Once you get north of Mt Washington in NH and north of the ridge line that Sunday River and Sugarloaf are on in ME they really don't get any warm ups all winter and hold snow cover from like Thanksgiving until May.

The excitement from me though was based on analog based forecasting not day 20 NWP which we all know is incredibly unreliable. Winter forecasts, which were largely optimistic this year, came out long before guidance started honking for February. The reason for my excitement was that I had identified analogs based on similar years with respect to things like enso, solar cycle, QBO, PDO, and they largely indicated that at some point from late January through March we would have a period that looked like that. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 and 2016 all scored highest in my weighted analogs, and while there was variability with exactly when it would happen all featured a period that was HECS friendly for us at some point after mid January. So when guidance started showing that...it was exciting not because of the NWP but because it matched the past results from this type of Nino. If we were simply basing our forecasts on day 20 weather models that would be insane and horrible forecasting. But some of your posts make it seem like that is what people are doing. Look, right now it looks like I was very wrong. I might end up giving myself an F for this winter if things do not turn around. I am not throwing in the towel yet but its getting hard to remain optimistic. I am very critical of myself. You don't have to tell me when I am wrong. But it's not fair to imply that the people who put a lot of research and time and effort into long range forecasting which is very difficult, are just looking at long range models and expecting whatever they say.

Man shush that ish before the snow gods hear you, next run it will be 67 degrees with a rain snow line near Montreal

Liverwurst

Euro is colder also, snow falls with surface temps of 25-27 for you and me. And the high on Saturday is 33 in Winchester and 31 here. Might actually feel like winter for a minute or two.

The euro is picking up on something that is likely in this type of NS wave running between the polar and arctic boundaries. There are likely to be two snow maximums, one just north of the polar boundary along just north of the rain snow line and a second further north along the arctic boundary. Despite the southern max having the deeper moisture the northern one almost always ends up the actual snow max because of significantly higher ratios. That might be muted somewhat this time by warmer than normal boundary temps even along that "arctic" boundary...but even if temps are only like 30 ratios will be pretty good with the colder temps in the DGZ which is what matters most so long as surface temps are below freezing.

My guess is the very low resolution of the SV maps makes it especially difficult to run an accurate snow map along the rain snow line and even worse if it's a map like Kuchera which factors in ratios. Both of those things require pretty fine details that a low resolution smoothed map would lack.