Baum

mid season form they can smell it on the LOT AVN update: WITH AS LITTLE AS ONE DEGREE POTENTIALLY BEING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW OCCURRING OR PRECIPITATION REMAINING AS ALL RAIN, OR BETWEEN SEEING A ROBUST, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW MIX, SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES, TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVERS, AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY IMPACTS IS LOW. ground truth update: A mix of snow/sleet/flakeage IMBY

mid season form.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND ROCKFORD HVY RAIN 36 33 89 E10G22 Heavy Rain and still 36 at Rockford. May not be a good sign for the turnover to Heavy Wet Snow crowd,

Teaser storm on track. Prairie Du Chen looks like the lollipop zone. Looking for some big wet flakes to enhance my holiday spirit today as I hit the Loop this evening for some dinner and downtown light gazing. December ambiance.

Put the L over Indy and you have a winner.

December snow...crazy.

on track.

update from the Land of Palms: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022 UPDATE (ISSUED 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022) TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR TOMORROWS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A QUICK MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WE LOSE CLOUD ICE. ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS EAST WINDS PULL SOME RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

thats a good thing. sort of why alot of us our here...

setting the table.

well played.

hit the counselor's thread. It's December 5th and winter is going as it should. Prior to Thanksgiving we've seen a major invasion of cold, record breaking lake snows and measurable snow already through the Ozarks and Louisville, Ky. And Toledo as well. Reality bites.

^ that's quite the warm sector on that pattern changer cyclone. Nice to get in mid December versus Mid January this year.

if your model watching a storm 5 -7 days out in early to mid December in such a changeable pattern and thinking they are on to something, good luck. At this point, I just look for a consistent storm signal somewhere on the models with an influx of cold and gulf moisture. I'll worry about the track later. It'll probably bury Paducah.

keep it in stock. You'll need it until May.

the step down with regular precip chances setting the stage for a Big Dog around mid month that will pull in the real cold. Expecting a Cold and White holiday season this year.

New low. Posting digitally generated forecasts on here from an app and acting like it matters. Someone help.

Looking good. When a dude that just posts random maps incessantly gets an audience karma will step in, always.

To change our December doldrums we need these convoluted patterns to break our way: QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TIMING/PHASING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. CHANCE POPS FOR MANY PERIODS LIKELY WARRANTED FOR NOW BUT CHANGES, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT TO TIMING, CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LATER FORECASTS.-LOT do it.

amateur viewpoint. I think this is good. From small things,good things come. beat ya too it ww.

this supports my early morning thoughts that warren weenied.

Equal chances that NOAA outlook is good through 12/10 and is wrong thereafter. Steady build to cold and than the snow chances begin to increase thereafter. A real December is in the offing...

you're thinking something the GFS shows 12 days out doesn't occur?

I didn't say it,he said it: "TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCE POPS REASONABLE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TYPE. A BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, WITH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY FAVORED TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. SIGNS AGAIN LEANING AWAY FROM ANY BIG PRECIP PRODUCERS,"- Castro

I'm stocking up on canned goods. The Buffalo event was a shot fired.