Baum

another mid month flip incoming...

IZZI itchin to throw up the watch: COMING OUT OF THE BRUTAL COLD SPELL MEANS THAT PAVEMENT TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING AND AIR TEMPS DURING THE SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS, SO SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY ON PAVEMENT AND LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TRAVEL IMPACT EVENTS EACH WINTER ARE SUB-ADVISORY AND OFTEN LESS THAN 1 INCH SNOWFALLS WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY HAS THAT LOOK TO IT.

I'd issue a watch with this afternoons package to be on the safe side. All kidding aside, given the wind and cold with this event you can see why the early watches were issued. If we had a foot with this thing...good luck.

blowing dirt

may get there a little different than planned.

The Euro is solely responsible for many NWS offices wearing a bag over their head tonight.

you're officially indoctrinated.

brutal.

no question. Time to issue a Travelers Advisory.

I'm still riding my call from Monday

this argument was not helped overnight, i see. Good news is they can run with a WWA and most folks won't think much about it.

little did we know we'd count that as a win.

oddly, i still think this will be a memorable event and NWS offices will have been justified in the early lead time watches.

it would only be fitting to happen to Alek's rig in 5" of snow and a spot on call.

actually ,not allowed.

post of the day

reduced to looking for table scraps from the 18Z NAM

IZZIED.

that's ugly.

LOT with another nice write up. If you get bummed with the back and forth of the model hugger crowd it provides a nice reality check when deciphering all the information used to hone in on a forecast with an event like this.

I tend to think you'll be spot on or bust badly low. Either way,

Of course it's a risk. But given the potential and the time of year you need to get the word out. It was a concerted effort to make the public aware. The normal tom,dick, and jenny isn't looking at the 18Z European model. Let's face it a widespread 2-5" event with below zero wind chills and 45mph winds the days before Christmas is a major hazard for joe public.

a taste of AFD's for shits and gigggles: Minny: IN SUMMARY, THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HIGH END, LIFE-THREATENING EVENT. THE RISK FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, EVENT THE EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES THAT ARE MORE WOODED. THIS, TOGETHER WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. Beer Town: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A POTENT WINTER STORM LATER THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. Des Moines: TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA IS LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN IOWA BY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ANYONE STRANDED WILL BE FACED WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, POOR VISIBILITIES AND DRIFTING SNOWPACK. ACCORDINGLY, THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH BLIZZARD WORDING. Kansas City: TRAVEL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STRONGLY DISCOURAGED WITH POTENTIAL WHITE-OUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS Fort Wayne: HOW QUICKLY THIS DEEPENING AND EVENTUAL WARM OCCLUSION OCCURS IS THE KEY TO THE ALL IMPORTANT SFC LOW TRACK AND WHO ENDS UP TAKING A DIRECT HIT FROM A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD. EVEN AREAS THAT DON'T TAKE A DIRECT HIT, WHICH COULD INCLUDE A LOT OF THE IWX CWA, WILL STILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO BE DISCUSSED SOON. Merry Christmas.

yup. Went full IZZI on a day 4 forecast. Now we know who to blame

maybe they saw the 18Z NAM