Baum

a taste of AFD's for shits and gigggles: Minny: IN SUMMARY, THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HIGH END, LIFE-THREATENING EVENT. THE RISK FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, EVENT THE EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES THAT ARE MORE WOODED. THIS, TOGETHER WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. Beer Town: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A POTENT WINTER STORM LATER THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. Des Moines: TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA IS LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN IOWA BY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ANYONE STRANDED WILL BE FACED WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, POOR VISIBILITIES AND DRIFTING SNOWPACK. ACCORDINGLY, THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH BLIZZARD WORDING. Kansas City: TRAVEL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STRONGLY DISCOURAGED WITH POTENTIAL WHITE-OUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS Fort Wayne: HOW QUICKLY THIS DEEPENING AND EVENTUAL WARM OCCLUSION OCCURS IS THE KEY TO THE ALL IMPORTANT SFC LOW TRACK AND WHO ENDS UP TAKING A DIRECT HIT FROM A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD. EVEN AREAS THAT DON'T TAKE A DIRECT HIT, WHICH COULD INCLUDE A LOT OF THE IWX CWA, WILL STILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO BE DISCUSSED SOON. Merry Christmas.

yup. Went full IZZI on a day 4 forecast. Now we know who to blame

maybe they saw the 18Z NAM

need an RC or Chi Storm analysis on the 12Z runs.

it's over.

it's over.

mystery met weighs in: "The gfs has gone west while the Euro has gone east. The fun and games continue. I think the GFS is to far west. I like a storm track from STL to DET right now. Travel west of the storm track will likely be shut down for a time. "

looks like a good ole fashioned midwest snowstorm just before Christmas. Nice.

not to trivialize....but

When was the last time we tracked a potential monster within 5 days of Christmas in the central midwest, east of the big river?

conservative, but good early call IMHO from this far out.

lookin good. Major midwest / greatl lakes snowstorm with high winds and bitter cold still on the table for Christmas week. It's been a awhile....... ONE TREND THAT'S EMERGED ON THE 00Z GEFS, WHICH OVERALL CONTINUES THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS TUNE, IS THE PRESENCE OF A FEW MEMBERS NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY-DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS CUTTING ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING, INDICATIVE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PHASING WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE ENTIRE GEFS ENVELOPE HAS BEEN EVER-SO-SLOWLY TICKING WESTWARD, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. THE REST OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SUITE/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS SHIFTED SUBTLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOTING NO REAL MATERIAL CHANGE FOR A 130+ HOUR FORECAST FROM THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH HAS THUS FAR REMAINED AMONG THE MOST CONSISTENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE). THIS ALTOGETHER HASN'T REALLY CHANGED THE OUTLOOK PICTURE THAT MUCH, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS HONING IN ON THE MAIN SWATH FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WEST TOWARDS OUR LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITHOUT A MORE FULLY-PHASED SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW (AND EVEN SYSTEM-PRECEDING FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED SNOWFALL) AND A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DOSE OF WIND IN THE LOCAL AREA SEEMS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

it's all fun and games until the 12Z Euro puts it over the Delmarva

update:

First call:

Regardless of a Big Dog most models now show a swath of snow to be put down ahead of the Cold. Will be white this Christmas morning in a good part of this forum, me thinks. LOT concurs: A NOTABLE SIGNAL EXISTS IN THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE FOR A POTENT UPPER WAVE IN THE VICINITY ON OR ABOUT THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH OBVIOUS TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES EXIST ACROSS THE GUIDANCE SUITE. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE RESPECTABLE AT THIS RANGE. NBM CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH THIS LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.

yup.

know the difference.

Embrace the pattern. Stop model hugging. It's all on the table this year, at peak Holiday season. Enjoy the ride.

i dunno about that but I was up in the land of palms this week doing outside tours of the Harley Davidson plants...not a palm in sight and froze my ass off looking at dead vegetation and crusty snow piles. Made me think your opinions can't be trusted.

My call is won't be 60 on Christmas this year.

^ Greatly appreciate these write ups. My take: on track for some real winter over holiday period. Forecast: "oh the weather outside is frightful, and the fire looks so delightful,Let it snow, Let It Snow, Let it snow."

mid season form they can smell it on the LOT AVN update: WITH AS LITTLE AS ONE DEGREE POTENTIALLY BEING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW OCCURRING OR PRECIPITATION REMAINING AS ALL RAIN, OR BETWEEN SEEING A ROBUST, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW MIX, SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES, TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVERS, AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY IMPACTS IS LOW. ground truth update: A mix of snow/sleet/flakeage IMBY

mid season form.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND ROCKFORD HVY RAIN 36 33 89 E10G22 Heavy Rain and still 36 at Rockford. May not be a good sign for the turnover to Heavy Wet Snow crowd,