crownweather

Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast. The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall. Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall. I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine. So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s. Now, you're going on my ignore/block list as I don't have the oxygen to deal with your cult like obsession with LRC. My 2023 forecast: The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season:

Wow and that's why I'm really glad there's a ignore member feature on this forum. You've now been placed on my ignore list.

Agreed. It's complete crap. None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity. The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers. If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you.

Yeah, I can't even with this guy. I actually called him out when he pulled that crap with Michael. He was disregarding recon, the look of the hurricane on satellite & other data & was only using RTMA obs. It was actually becoming an issue when it came to trying to warn those in the path of a Category 5 hurricane. He ended up quitting Twitter after that. Now here's the rub, he said he wasn't going to do that kind of stuff when he came back as ContentWeather. And here we are, him pulling the same smoke & mirrors.

Cora needs to go (what dirt does he have on ownership that they're keeping him around). Also, Breslow needs to go.

The older I get the less I like Summer (I will be 51 in August). Heat, humidity, tourist traffic, bugs & crazy high energy bills due to trying to stay cool. In my younger days, I loved all things summer - now, I could do without it. Fall is actually my favorite season & now winter is a close second.

Agreed. I've noticed over the last couple of months or so that the meso models have under forecast strong/severe thunderstorm events for Southern New England. Models then start playing catch-up about 12 hours before the event start & continue playing catch-up right up to game time.

For the hurricane season that I released last Thursday, I went with the following analog years - 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021. I do think that we may be looking at a East Coast heavy season in terms of threats and potential impacts. The NE Caribbean is another concern of mine as is the central Gulf Coast. Link to my season forecast - https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/

I don't know about that. I've driven Route 2 from Newport, Maine to Berlin, New Hampshire several times. It's quite scenic and you see parts of both Maine and New Hampshire you don't see on other roads like the Maine Turnpike, Route 16 or I-93.

Ended up with about 0.2 inch of snow with the system early this morning here in Sturbridge. Brings me to 9.3 inches of snow for the month & season. Pretty decent start to the season & MUCH better than the last several years.

A 2010 Boxing Day snowstorm redux would be nice. Still remember seeing the model guidance on that Christmas Day of what was about to come. Definitely a nice Christmas present that year!!

Well, there was at least one reported tornado late last night in lower Michigan. So..........

Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996.

Just installed the bedroom AC on Saturday. Tried to hold off until June 1, but the house just holds onto the warmth so it's tough to get indoor temps to drop much at night, even when temps are in the 40s for lows.

12/6/2

When hasn't JB put the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in an above average threat area?? Of course, a broken clock is right twice a day.

It makes the snow map I created look like something else for sure. Went with 10-15” south of ORH and 15-20” ORH to Route 2 . CT River Valley may get shadowed and see 5-10”.

Scratching my head at this tweet. Hmmm....

Not sure why he moved back to Boston after being in Atlanta, if he hates winter so much. Sigh.

CIPS analog hints at an "Ice, Ice Baby" scenario with the storm New Year's weekend. Anyone know how significant the freezing rain event was for around December 17-18 or so of 2008 - which would have been a week after the very significant ice storm on December 11, 2008.

Yep. For sure. Granted the records are from Worcester but the 1940s were definitely a mixed bag of winters - some really horrible like 1941-42, 1943-44 & 1946-47, but others did really well (looking at you 1947-48).

I wish I could thank this post many times over. What a great post and it's all true!! Sadly, weather posts on Twitter and Facebook are such that, as you said, there's only a model map with no context. That gets shared a shit ton of times and thus it becomes a "forecast" that in all likelihood never verifies. What happens in the end is that the "public" ends up coming away thinking that it's another bust of a forecast and the meteorologist is wrong again - even though you and I and many others NEVER forecasted that to happen. Sometimes, I feel like the grumpy old man when I say to myself, It was better when all we had were difax printouts once or twice a day. You actually had to forecast the weather and not just regurgitate a really pretty model map. Again, great post!!

15/8/3

1900 was actually a VERY quiet hurricane season in terms of numbers (7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major). In fact, the Galveston Hurricane was the 1st storm of the season!

I'm sitting in the screw zone right along with you.