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cleetussnow

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Everything posted by cleetussnow

  1. cleetussnow
    Nothing beats a good snow light during a storm. I need to get a good one set up and not piss off my neighbors.
  2. cleetussnow
    More Upton disco re: tomorrow Otherwise, an elongated area of low pressure passes to the south and east of the area tonight into Sunday. Bulk of the precip will occur the first half of tonight, but a mid-level shortwave trough will result in deepening of the surface low just off the southern New England coast on Sunday. This will keep the area under mainly light precipitation, but there is a chance for a heavier band of snow on the backside of the system, especially eastern areas. Even coastal locations should go back to all snow by early Sunday afternoon.
  3. cleetussnow
    Exactly what I’m thinking at this point
  4. cleetussnow
    I’m at about 3 inches here north west of HPN.
  5. cleetussnow
    In fact they do Otherwise, models remain in agreement that low pressure passes to our south tonight and just NW of the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday morning. Bulk of the precip will occur through tonight, but PVA aloft interacting with a surface trough on the backside of the storm brings additional, but lighter precip during the day Sunday.
  6. cleetussnow
    Upton disco NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The challenge of this forecast will be for areas just inland of the coast the next several hours, particularly interior NE NJ and the CT coast. A strengthening east flow will gradually warm the boundary layer, however, with liquid equivalent rates of .1 to .2"/hr moving up from the south, those areas could see brief snowfall rates of 1 to 2"/hr before mixing with or going over to rain. Inland areas will also see an increase in intensity of the snow the next couple of hours, from SW to NE. Even a slight change in distance north and west will make a difference. For example, KEWR has gone over to plain rain at 37F/34F, while KNYC is right around the freezing mark. Latest dual pol CC from KDIX and KOKX shows lower CC values (marking mixed pcpn going over to rain) near KEWR and along the south shore of LI. This area should advance north with a changeover to all rain across LI and the NYC metro the next 1 to 2 hours. However, model soundings for locations just north and west of NYC, such as KTEB are pointing to a prolonged period of heavy wet snow before the mid levels dry out and an elevated warm layer moves in aloft. At that time, precipitation would transition over to a drizzle or light rain, but the bulk of the heavy precipitation would have fallen as snow. Also, seeing very similar soundings along the CT coast. However, the strengthening easterly flow off the LI Sound is a significant warming factor for the boundary layer. If the wind could stay a bit more north of east the potential is there for higher accumulations. This will have to be watched carefully over the next couple of hours, but for the time will stay the course with the hazards and snowfall amounts.
  7. cleetussnow
    Point and click is now 3-5, up from 2-4 for my area north of HPN. HWO warning now 5 to 10, up from 4 - 8. squeezing an inch on us.
  8. cleetussnow
    My son and his besty are outside in the driveway with my snowblower (broken) and a parts donor snowblower (also broken) trynna make 1 good working snowblower. My driveway looks like a junkyard. I heard something run just now as it started to snow lightly. They have 8 driveways to do tomorrow. Hoping the bodge job gets em through (it will). Meanwhile my neighbor just called…his won’t start. Finally some winter around here.
  9. cleetussnow
    Everyone quote this in the obs thread with pics.
  10. cleetussnow
    I get jacked? nah. I get jack shit
  11. cleetussnow
    just send it.
  12. cleetussnow
    At my location for of HPN, I am rooting for: 1) Heavy front end saturday/saturday night 2) Dry slot instead of rain 3) Sunday developer snow That's the ONLY way we get to accumulation OTG more than a 3 sloppy inches here IMO. And I don't think there is a single model depiction that shows that exact scenario, but I am also not tracking every single run all day long so maybe there is.
  13. cleetussnow
    Sweet spot is Putnam on this side of the river (that's still inside 'metro' so to speak). NWS Point and click is 7 to13 up yonder and we've seen all that in the models as well. I do see they are factoring in the Sunday bit and that is going to have to happen to touch the higher end numbers.
  14. cleetussnow
    I'm right next to Allgame, so much appreciated, Don! We'll have to see if we can anything out of the Sunday part. NWS disco seems to think that's still on the table.
  15. cleetussnow
    Seems NWS is bullish LHV: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off mostly rain metro
  16. cleetussnow
    We always knew it'd come. NAM'oliscious! but leave it...like as in walking my dog past a McDonalds cheeseburger wrapper left on the ground......leave it...leave it...
  17. cleetussnow
    Looks like the LP is a little more consolidated/stronger this run. Could be good
  18. cleetussnow
    Having Tip posting down here is like having a celebrity guest star on our program tonight.
  19. cleetussnow
  20. cleetussnow
    man this is a decent looking ensemble.
  21. cleetussnow
    I expect this to jump around a lot as we get closer to 48 hrs, even 36 hrs just like the NWS Boston suggest. I feel like this has happened a lot over the few years with coastals.
  22. cleetussnow
    Anyone look at EPS? I imagine not good since no one has mentioned it. This winter.
  23. cleetussnow
    I think the NW trend is real and isn't going away. GFS -> Euro, same direction.
  24. cleetussnow
    great run for metro and esp. N/W. New England forum will be happy (er). Edit: Came too north for Metro - changes to rain. Jumped the gun.
  25. cleetussnow
    Nice GFS run. Likely to change and there will be a lot of different looks this week run to run. We may not know many specifics until inside 48.
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