cleetussnow

Kind of a shitty flyby if its not coming anywhere near close. And what is this unit of measurement canada geese? Dumshits.

We have seen bombs modeled far out on operational runs come to fruition for sure. Sandy was way out. I’d say 1/2 of the gfs operationals have had some sort of coastal for like 4 days now, and a storm of some variation on the others. Its like the operational has to reflect something distant early warning with red lights flashing, sirens wailing pattern developing across model suites. If it didn’t then its like WTF everywhere. If we are tracking a bomb for 15 days on op runs, thats a thriller to me, and we may be doing just that. Or not - but we’ll be 10 days op Euro today ish so lets’s see if we get a signal. I don’t have the Euro out to 10 myself. Lets hope its not another mirage this time and we can ride this baby in to the BM.

Exotic solutions

People obviously feel like the coin is loaded - i.e. it flips tails >50% by a lot, so they go with that. They think someone betting heads is wrong or wishcasting despite what models say. That said, I'm leery and already on the ratter train. Hopefully the Brooklynwx train stops at Feb 15th station and we can get on board that for awhile. long way off...

The Euro would be out to the 11th - how's it look?

It's possible that one biggie can get a lot of stations close to normal and we saw that during the 'snowy epoch' since the mid 90s. 2006 comes to mind where a single storm did that, and that was mid Feb. I haven't looked at the data in awhile but it seems we don't tend to get like six 5-inch storms to get to normal for CPK. Also, we don't normally just land on 'normal;' instead we do something like 15" or 45" and it averages out to normal ~30" over time. And when we get above normal, we get a couple biggies in it. I'm hoping we do get that big storm magic while the pattern is good, but I'm on the record for a ratter. It will still take some luck on timing even in a good pattern. Good patterns can absolutely fail to deliver.

In case anyone wants to see

I would love it. I remember the shows with DT raleighwx, marcus, some other people. Lets do this. We can use zoom or hop on discord.

You are a good poster. The other new guy too. You should change your name to Starman. Group? What do you think?

So ‘pandemic’ is the new apocalypse. Got it.

How do you see anything with the black thing on your head?

I deleted it after spending 5 seconds looking back in the thread cuz yeah.

Same! My wife had a secret weather blog she went to after reading my weather reports to compare forecasts. She never trusted mine until Sandy. I had to earn it, I guess.

I think a lot on here would sign up for a 6-10 region-wide deal in trade for more winter thereafter. Let's get one and we can wrap it up and call it a season.

There it is. First legit sun angle mention.

That won’t verify.

It feels like it will never snow again - which is silly, but 2 years of this, and this year possibly being worse than the last... yeah, feels permanent.

I think as of today it’s not unreasonable to call it a ratter given whats in the near term. I don’t think anyone should be chided for throwing it in. Hitting peak climo in the position we are in…Winter never had a chance.

Rusty pipe winter here.

@Typhoon TipTip said in the Fall of 2005 that the winter of 05/06 would not be a good one, but said given the pattern (whatever it was), some stations could get their seasonal average all in one storm. Which CPK did on Feb. 11. I may be the only person that remembers that call, but it was the best winter prediction I ever saw.