stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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Your wisdom is impressive. A lot of bullish hype in here this afternoon but I believe most don't understand or admit how difficult serious Drought is to overcome. That southern jet needs to be on steroids..............................
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I have been comparing operational to ensembles for a long time. The ensembles have often been too bullish on precip. for Augusta that never materialized. Too many opinions. AI may be the trend for the future, but again, the AI ensemble snow prediction was nuts not long ago.
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We can only hope
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One last shot: Dry first 10 days of January vs. CPC Wet
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This is the map that I was using:
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The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9. The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan. 1 - 9. Who would You put your money on? The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time. OK CPC, I believe.
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Euro AI keeps the 6/7 system down in N.C..
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The Severe Drought now extends from Rockingham through D.C. When will it end?? El Nino coming on in 2026 gives hope.
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There is no such thing as a consistent top performer. Most would consider the ECMWF and GFS as leading the pack, but neither one is a consistent winner.
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MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone............... I'm happy because I received .21" rain early this morning. Was supposed to be less than .10" Gotta run to celebrate with friends and family the rest of the day........ A whole lotta calories.
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Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing. How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run??
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That"s fine! You're good! For those who may seriously be disgruntled because of the 12z run of the GFS, take heart. Yes, hp was weaker and qp less, but this is 4 days away. As long as it holds on to the general idea, we have a long ways to go.
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What folded?
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I lost 1.13" qp with the 12z run thru Saturday evening. BAD DEAL Of course, the idea is still there.....................
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Augusta is 2 degrees colder at 32 at 1 pm Friday compared to 06z
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GEFS AI 1 pm Friday is 38 degrees.
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The Euro is currently caving to the KING GFS for Augusta............................... 00z Euro had Augusta County at 62 for Christmas afternoon. The 06z Euro drops that 62 to 56....... Sterling NWS forecasters are at a loss. Later today, Sterling Thur thru Saturday likely to change significantly.... 13.2 at 7 am.
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I have been scrolling to find a solid post to pin my hat to. This is better than most and also applies to Eric Webb.
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That will save on my wood pile!!!!!!
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That's not ridge bridge................................. That's euphuked
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That would wake up the dormant fruit buds on my apple trees if it persisted!!!!!!
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I am in the Bahamas for Dec. 18 - 30................................ This tropical touch is heavenly............. Why couldn't we have 70 in D.C. for December 25?
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Another under-performer. A 6 model blend yesterday dropped around .70" on Augusta. I received .33".
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18z NAM and ICON trend wetter for WOTBR for Thursday night. Hopefully, this is a trend toward more precipitation to alleviate the drought.
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One that does not populate the weather map. A subtle over-running of warm air on the northwest flank of departing high pressure.
