stormy

Happy birthday! Thanks very much for taking the time to give me a very reasonable explanation! Your expert analysis is very important to me. I reached out to you because you were obviously bullish early Friday morning. When I don't understand something that repeatedly seems strange, I ask questions. I have repeatedly received only sprinkles for the last 7 days with several Watches. I have talked to some who are starting to water their gardens. Some people seem to walk around with a chip on their shoulder, therefore they attack a question: "wheres the rain?". You are obviously a very intelligent person who understands that I simply asked a very reasonable question. Thanks again for your expert explanation! The GFS is bullish for my area late this afternoon. I will hang my hopes on that.

I am not making a "whiny ass post". I would expect this from a goofball such as yourself. I am simply asking a question from someone who unlike yourself should have the intelligence to answer a question. What happened today? I want to know after repeated false alarms from the NWS. Why don't you remove your completely stupid attitude from this forum. We don't need your condescending attitude anymore. You are a self righteous idiot. I have tolerated your asinine attitude in the past, but no more.

Where is the rain??????? We are 6 hours into this and I have had 5 drops..........................

The WPC has dropped from 3.00 inches of rain for Augusta to .25"!!!!!!!!!! AS Jackie said 60 years ago.................. "How Sweet It Is"

Another day and another Flood Watch. Maybe this time more than sprinkles? Yes, I broadcast at 6:45. Expected rainfall next 24 hrs., 1 to possibly 6 inches! The WPC and Sterling FD bullseyes my area for flooding rainfall. RRFS ensembles indicate a 40% chance of 100 yr. amounts HREF Max Qp indicates 4 - 7 inches. The ICON is the only normally sampled model that has any interest. The GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and HRRR are not impressed with potential. If today is another bust for Augusta County, my explanation for my newsletter will be tough! Hopefully, it occasionally pours from 3 - 9 pm.

You're exactly right and I agree with you 100%. You were lucky to be slammed Sunday. I received .10". The last 4 Watches have given me a total of .15". That's fine because I take all watches with a grain of salt even though I still fire them on my newsletter. I'm not foolish enough to trust the government to protect me from a flood or other harm in life. People who play that game often wind up disappointed or worse. The NWS only gives me a 30% pop today so my chances are probably better late this afternoon or evening of finally getting a decent rain. The Watches will likely return tomorrow.

How did all of that turn out?????

Flood Watch #5 in the last 30 days was issued for Augusta County at 8:07 am. With the first 4, I only averaged .29" per Watch. Hopefully, #5 will yield pay dirt.

Many are already ignoring the watches because its the boy who cried wolf too often.

Batesville reports 2.32" since 1 pm.

The 5 pm advisory shifts the track of Chantal 40 miles west at Raleigh by Monday. Possible Va/DC impact slightly increases.

The NHC is close to the CMC........................................

1.85" last 18 hrs. This was a good start for what will be a wet July. 41% of the long-term monthly total during the first 2 days is nothing to sneeze at.

No rain here but 20 miles to my NW, 2.50" rain in a severe storm yesterday evening with considerable wind damage.

This garden variety mini heatwave has dropped from 597 to 591 at 500 mb.

A nice afternoon cooler than yesterday. No rain but only 87 compared to 24 hrs. ago at 95.

84 degrees with 48% rh makes for a delightful early summer afternoon. Scattered cumulus with a sw breeze at 4.

81 at noon

March and April were very dry. May and June have been wet. March dropped 1.38" which was 39% of normal. April gave 1.66" which was 49% of normal. May gave 5.42 which was 151 % of normal. To date, June has dropped 5.34" which is 211% of normal thru. June 21. The Valley is very green compared to a year ago.

.06" last 24 hrs. 4.88" so far in June way out west in Augusta County.

I have not posted this Watch in my Newsletter. I believe it is a mostly dry run.

A severe storm with 45 mph winds 6:00 - 6:45 Friday evening. White out conditions with 2.75" rain in 45 minutes. Many trees down, my power was out 18.5 hours.

For the first time in 14 months, Virginia is drought free.

March and April were very dry last year and the same this year. May was slightly wetter than normal last year at 3.73" and well above the normal of 3.60" this year with 5.42". The GFS Extended and Euro Weeklies believe that June will be wet this year. Fingers crossed. 1.50" Friday thru Sunday noon was very nice.

The Nam 12 and 3 are too juicy for western areas with the returning warm front during the next 24 hrs.. They may be right but IMO , sludge...................