stormy

A reported total of 20.3 inches of snow at Canaan Heights from Monday thru 7 am today.

You're probably right as Spruce is only 14 feet higher than Snowshoe. But, Spruce is 35 miles northeast of Snowshoe. That could make a difference and Snowshoe has been on the southern fringe of qp.

Can you imagine the summit of Spruce Knob at 4862' If I was nearby with a high clearance 4x4, I would drive up there. The road is not bad. Western Highland County Va. reported 8 inches.

The 3715' elevation at Canaan Heights compared to your average 3400' is elevation event on steroids with this event. Do you accept your elevation as 3400 ft., one source says 3300 and another says 3500?

Canaan Heights reporter this morning, "A historic day for all time record-breaking here. In records dating back more than a century, no May snowfall event has ever occurred that comes close to matching what has happened here" 16.2 inches has accumulated since Monday!

1.92" in Augusta County. Previous 2 month total only 2.36. Latest guidance says I should surpass that with today's and Sundays total.

The monster El Nino by August is nothing more than hype by DT. We can expect a reasonable El Nino by Fall. Probably a better winter next year with more precipitation and better chances of snow! This is the likely pattern. This will save many from suicide....................

GEM doubles rainfall expectations for Friday.

Thanks Mattie!!! You are illustrating a problem that has created snowfall problems for years.

Ha! You gotta be joking!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Most have already overacted to a nearly snow-less winter when part of the reason is that the year started out dry. LOL

The ECMWF drops nearly all of the weekend stuff for most. Only real rain now is Friday. Drops from 1.64 to .86"

6 hours makes a huge difference with the volatile GFS. Rainfall expectation for my community dropped from 3.99" at 6am to 1.80" noon. 72 hrs from Friday am - Monday am. It will likely spike again at 6 pm.

25.4 at 6:45. 20 degrees colder than normal. A station in Highland County reported 19. A 72 hr. 3 model blend from 7 am Friday through 7 am Monday is 2.79". GFS 3.99, GEM2.75, ECM 1.64.

30.7 at 7 am. 15 degrees colder than normal.

.21" total rain yesterday and 32 degrees this morning. 1.36" total rain for April.

The CPC is wrong more often than right with these 6-10 and 8-14 day maps. If we had received the rain predicted by the 6 - 10 day CPC forecast year to date, we would be 5 inches above normal vs. 5 inches below normal. The CPC is wrong more often than right with these 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. If we had received rainfall year to date based on these 6 - 10 day maps, we would be 5 inches above normal vs. 5 inches below normal.

I am happy to see more people connect with the reality of an expanding NOAA classified "moderate drought" over northern and eastern Virginia. 3 weeks ago, I seemed to be the only one concerned. Droughts cost billions of dollars every year. They create financial disaster for the people who feed America. I live in an agricultural area and have good friends who produce the crops that feed America, including Mattie. Drought causes crop failures and results in higher prices for everyone at the supermarket. Depending on severity, drought can severely affect every person in many ways. I was friends with the former state climatologist for Virginia, the late Dr. Patrick Michaels. Dr. Michaels pointed out that to have a good growing season Virginia needs to go into the growing season wet, because of very high evaporation rates in May through August. We are going into the growing season very dry this year. The last 45 days since March 1, I have received 30% of normal rainfall. We are on the way to be declared a drought disaster area before the summer is over unless this pattern breaks down. It probably will change because of the changing Enso condition. We can only pray for this change, for You, Me and even Mattie.

22.8 was the low at 7 am.

Larry is the chief meteorologist at WEATHERAmerica.

Charlottesville slipped into Moderate Drought with the update this morning:

So close and yet so far away..................... Deficits are worsening.

Thank you for your explanation, it is appreciated. I completely agree that none of our seasonal guidance has much success past month one. We just aren't there yet.

I always enjoy reading analysis by true professionals! Those red letters below your username always adds credibility. Now, on to a non professional. A little over 4 months ago when I issued my winter forecast for my twice weekly newsletter, the CFS was predicting a colder than normal and wetter than normal winter, December - February. We had just the opposite. My track record for the past 15 years has been impressive, this year a total failure, because I weighted the CFS too heavily on what should have been a declining La Nina. The SER acted more like a Nina on steroids! Do any of you guys have any professional thoughts regarding how or why the CFS was such a failure for this past winter?

Larry Cosgrove now gives favorability to a west based Nino. Weak/moderate

The metrics assimilation cannot capture reality............................ Front crossing the Valley headed for D.C., crossing by 7 pm