stormy

You need a Cyclone Rake! Mine makes short work of leaves and holds 44 bushels before you have to dump. Price is reasonable for the work they do. Several sizes ranging from $1500 - $2000.

Wow!!! That was an hilarious blast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am sensing that the atmosphere is beginning to feel El Nino.. The suppressed southeast system will steal moisture from Friday's potential as a little more northward influence allows greater stealing capability but this may be a positive signal for 5 - 15 days into the future. I predict that moisture influx will improve over the tristate region beginning next week just in time for my month ago Thanksgiving predicted beginning Nino influence.

Suppressed southeast low pressure robs the moisture from Friday night frontal. 18z NAM12 now zero. Only 14% of normal first half of November at .24". Will do a study of nino winter snowfalls with less than 50% of normal precipitation. It will be bleak.

Spire is ok for a global impression, but I lost interest a few months ago because regional detail does not exist.

Congratulations on being gloriously positive! I assume IAD at 43 is a max.. I am usually similar to Dulles. That's right in line with my max. of 40 for Augusta.

This map is not "slightly to well below normal" for the 81-corridor. 22-30 inches can actually be slightly above normal. As far as Canaan, they border on 36" +. which is infinity. I'm like PSU, I can see 10 - 50 inches. Current repetitive Sahara like precip. patterns suggest 10 inches but I have high hopes for a pattern change.

Lynchburg 13.5 inches

It was amazing to see the deterministic GFS and GEM collapse from more than an inch on Friday 24 hrs. ago to nada at 6 am.. The ensembles held their own from yesterday as well as the NBM.

This would be workable. Trough in Honolulu, Ridge in Vegas, Trough in D.C.. Of course, considering the flip in 24 hrs., what will we have tomorrow??

Thanks for your interest Rodney. Lynchburg is considerably more inland. Though low elevation Lynchburg averages 12 inches of snow annually. Salisbury only averages 7 inches. Strong noreasters can wallop Salisbury more than Lynchburg. The nod for this winter goes to Lynchburg at 12 - 15 inches and Salisbury 9 - 12 inches.

BWI 19.1" DCA 14.3" IAD 25.8" RIC 8.2"

Here's the map:

Latest CPC analysis says 3.4 is now 1.80 with the DYN AVG now 2.0 thru Jan.

We need that deep trough well to the west with ridging over Nevada and troughing over the east with the axis over Nashville.

The CPC finally hints at more moisture getting into our drought stricken area as we approach Thanksgiving.

I'm just being proactive for what is coming soon. That's a better pastime than dwelling on all the unreasonable people in the D.C. area.

1 - 3 inches of snow tomorrow in northwest Highland County above 3500 ft...... 4332 ft. Rt. 250 at the state line is a great candidate. Wax those ski's!!

I see the pattern perfectly. That's why we sometimes have above normal snowfall with below normal qp. As you say, "numerous storms sliding by to our south". If we are brushed with a southern slider we get possibly significant snow but relative qp is rather light. That's the beauty of Nino. We are on the cold north side of southern sliders therefore we are much more likely to see snow instead of mixed slop from OV riders. With a pure Nino, we are almost always on the NW side of the mean storm track. Thanks for your input, but I can assure you that I "see the pattern".

With increasing speculation about precipitation this Nino winter, I have researched precipitation patterns with the 14 Nino's since 1980 at my location in Augusta County. What I found has completely changed my attitude about winter precipitation with Nino's. Please understand, I am talking about liquid qp, not snow. During the past month I have referred to a failed Nino if we don't evolve to a wet pattern by December 10. This was based on a review of 2 analogs. Everything changed when I detailed all 14 Nino's for 43 years. D.T. referred to a "failed Nino" in his winter comments. My current realization is that a failed Nino is possible at 32 north latitude or Charleston S.C. but a failed Nino is not possible at Staunton Va. or Washington D.C. How is this? Because a normal Nino winter pattern does not exist at our latitude. It is highly variable, therefore cannot fail. I recovered precipitation totals for 14 November - April Nino's since 1980. Only 43% of these years had above normal precipitation from November - April. Our latitude is sandwiched between a dry Ohio Valley and wet south and southeast, but we are certainly not guaranteed a wet winter. Snowfall is variable and can be heavy even during a dry winter. My normal qp from November - April totals 18.84". An example of a dry winter which gave heavy snowfall is 1979-80. 18.03" qp fell with a snow total of 49 inches, double my normal total of 24 inches. Another dry Nino winter that produced above normal snowfall was 15-16, 17.05" qp produced 26 inches of snow. An example of a wet Nino with below normal snowfall is 18-19, 26.60" qp only produced 21 inches of snow. The fabled 09-10 winter gave 25.77" qp with 63 inches of snow. Many Nino's give above normal snowfall to my area but less than half give a wet winter.

Your thoughts are outstanding !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Many others are whistling Dixie!

Thanks for bringing this to my attention! I will research precipitation patterns for the entire winter into the following spring of all other El Nino's since 1980, November - April.

Of course 24 " of snow was only the beginning, March gave 5.40 precip. and April gave 7.57"!

I hope your wrong, but who knows. 24 inches of snow is only 2.5 inches of QP. We need much more than that.

Here we are in the first week of November in a moderate to strong El Nino and the Severe Drought for the I-81 corridor continues to worsen. I have been dry since the end of July. August gave me 1.12 compared to a normal of 3.63, September gave 3.59" compared to a normal of 4.43", October gave .53" compared to a normal of 3.25". Historical comparisons to other El Nino's of this value gives me reason for great concern. Most other El Nino's gave a wet November. 1997 6.46", 2009 6.75"............................ The next 15 days look dry.......................... WE are running out of time for this El Nino to kick in...........