stormy

Much of the Valley is still in severe drought.

The 12z deterministic GFS gives warning criteria snow to the 81 corridor in the Jan. 4 - 6 time-frame. This of course will all change but I see this as a determination of pattern. The 21 members of the GEFS give basic agreement to the pattern, but as earlier this week and last, it disagrees with its own parameters if looking at literal precip. type. That is a repetitive flaw with this ensemble. The 12z EPS is superior to the GEFS in this regard.

The 00z and 06z guidance is looking good for a colder, unsettled period during Jan. 1 - 5. 17.8 degrees this morning.

I am on record as liking the first 5 days of January, for unsettled wintry conditions across the MA. Cold air will be settling south from HB. The STJ should be amplifying.

14 degrees early this morning in Augusta County.

That would be workable with about 170% of normal rainfall. We'll get our heavy snow later in Feb. and March.

I don't know how to deal with this.

My post was basically focused on how the pattern may evolve over the next 2 - 3 weeks. My 378 map was not intended to offend you.

We are, but we're having a lot of fun!

Please allow me to address your concern. My post was a critque of the 240 hr. GEFS and why it probably won't work because of thermals, but it could set the stage for the next system. Regarding 300+ maps, LOL, this site and thread is loaded with 360 and 384 maps.

As progged by the GEFS, the 28 - 30 system is still too warm. But, it may be setting the stage for the next system by pulling colder air down from the Lakes. Yes, this is fantasy-land beyond 300 hrs. but we could have a winner in the first 5 days of Jan. Source of origination, northwest Gulf is prime all the way back to the 60's. Usually a general track to Alabama/ southeast North Carolina and up the east coast has produced. Recently, eastward across the Gulf intensifying up the east coast as the GFS paints is good. Upper air temps. look good to support snow. The GEFS contradicts itself at 360 by showing rain with a minus 4 850 and the 540 in N.C...... The Op may be onto something.

1.26" total. Western mts. not so lucky, Monterey only received .33".

My water table has risen 1.9 ft during the 6 inches of wasted water. Still exactly 20 ft. below April 12. We need at least 12 - 15 more inches of that wasted water between now and April. A lot of heavy wet snow cover would also be very beneficial.

That "6 inches of wasted water" was wonderful drought mitigation for western folks.

Are you sure?????

WINTER STORM WATCH for western Highland County for late Monday. 6 - 12 inches possible. This is only 145 miles west/southwest of D.C. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ503&warncounty=VAC091&firewxzone=VAZ503&local_place1=4 Miles WNW Monterey VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.4284&lon=-79.6419

The GFS and GEFS still show a storm 28 - 30. GFS brings an inland runner with rain. The GEFS still likes the coastal solution. The 850 temps. are more reasonable for some snow from Staunton to D.C. with the 06z GEFS run.

I am tracking a likely rainstorm but also watching for any hint of something else like last Sunday night.

That can happen with an up-slope easterly flow.

Then 18z GFS puts the bullseye over Augusta County:

Sunday night, strong LP is over S. Carolina dumping rain. No 50/50................ Source of cold air way back over North Dakota............................

18 z GFS hammers the LP from Myrtle to Norfolk. 2 - 3 inches common.

I have absolutely no panic. I am simply disappointed that so much of what the best and brightest in the meterological world base their assumptions on is so corrupted. No wonder their wrong more than 50% of the time. We should expect better. Of course, considering the world we live in, it is almost certain.

CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.

Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together. Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS. Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????