stormy

GFS finally abandons that westward jog, as I expected. ICON nails the ideal track for drought stricken areas..

I'm still waiting for confusion to clear up hopefully tomorrow. We still have the deterministic models a thousand miles apart. The ensembles are the best at this point for a much needed soaking rain. A triple blend of the CMC, GEFS and ECM ens give me 3.01" through Saturday. The deterministic 3 give me a blend of 2.06".

You are exactly right! This is a sad commentary on the world that we live in.

I absolutely did not say that NHC is not doing a good job. A definition of confusion is "lack of understanding or uncertainty". They admit with the 5 am discussion that the future and intensity north of Florida is "low confidence". A pure understanding of "low confidence" is uncertainty, therefore confusion of track north of Florida. Certainty would create high confidence. That is not possible at this time. This is not a deficiency of performance by NHC. This is honesty based on very erratic model data. I expect better model agreement by tomorrow.

Honestly, total confusion with the models and NHC. Should have a better handle by Monday or Tuesday.

I have high hopes but will only believe it when it's in the gauge. Of course, this extreme drought has to break at some point. It might as well snap next week. 2021 is my driest first 7 months in the past 40 years with 17.37", followed closely by 2002 at 18.05"and this year at 18.80".

My goodness! I feel blessed with 3.31" since Memorial Day.

Historically, dry summers can produce snowy winters!!!! 86-87 summer was very dry, yet produced 52 inches of snow the following winter................... But, the pattern has too change to more qp...............................

Approach during the past hour of a line. 10 drops and 33 mph S.W. gusts. .02 rain. If we don't evolve to a more normal pattern before November, speculation on winter snowfall will be a point specific ludicrous venture. Winter precip. patterns can always change. We can only Pray.........................

I love low 70's vs low 90's late next week but would much rather see Debby remnants parked over Lynchburg instead of Nashville!

Chuck, you're very lucky if your dry streak "came out of nowhere". I have been very dry since May.

68/67 Pops drop from 70% to 30% for today.......................... Maybe now we'll get some rain...........................

88/68......................... A glorious total of 1.86" rain for July compared to a normal of 4.44" 42% of normal................ Oh well, that is better than some of our winter snowfall in the last few years. And, better than the 40% of normal rainfall for June!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

73 degrees with 8 drops of rain.

78 degrees and cloudy at 3:30. Nice with a southwest breeze of 5-10. Of course the useless NAM prediction of heavy rain has been a total failure. West Virginia Governor Jim Justice declared a Drought State Of Emergency for the entire state of W.Va. https://governor.wv.gov/News/press-releases/2024/Pages/Gov.-Justice-announces-State-of-Emergency-for-all-55-counties-due-to-dangerous-drought-conditions.aspx

The 12z runs for next week are drying up. I believe to break this pattern we need a major tropical contribution. Hopefully, not major damage. Wilmington to Charlottesville with peak winds dropping out from 100 mph to 40 mph would suffice.

I received .95. Wonderful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The NAM 12 picked up on the activity in my area this afternoon. The high Res. NAM 3 did not!!!!!!!!

.51" rain from 2:30 - 3:00. The most from one event in 50 days!!!!!! .75" on June 5.

Potatoes are easy to grow in Va. I have been doing it for decades. Put seed potatoes in ground about May 1 and dig early August after vines have died down. They need lots of rain or watering when blooming. I have dug a big bushel in the past week and probably have another bushel to go.

.04" from that flood watch!!!!! It's always less than .10"..............................

STERLING and NOAA are a complete Joke................ Their government subsidy is a complete fleecing of America as Brokaw used to say.........

Happy for you................. I have had .40" in the past week and nothing in the past 24 hours.

.40" in the past week here.

I received .25" while Buffalo Gap received 3.14"!! and Churchville 1.76".....