Brian5671

he shows this for phase 5:

He's banking on Phase 5 MJO which is colder in March and some EPO dips. I could see some cold spells like the one coming up, but it's not really all that cold in the general scheme of things...

I'll go out on a limb and say that call will bust

yep, we've slowly dried out after the very wet December-while it's been cloudy and damp, the rain has not added up to much. Tonight's event should give us all .50

yep only 9% of the lakes surface area is frozen-if you look at 01-02 and 11-12 they had some big outbreaks out there too-I think BUF had a record event one of those years

I bet someone there puts up a 60 inch total

oh to be just south of Buffalo: ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 55 mph will result in severe blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow will produce near zero visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes Thursday and Friday. Strong winds could cause some tree damage and isolated power outages.

oh you're back on the cold/snow train again? Pattern is the same, expect more of what we've had. Jan and Feb are +5 to +6, March will likely be somewhere in the same category-that's a torch CFS getting warmer by the day as well

Any threat will have to be within 3 days to be taken seriously this year. If we get something, it's likely by the 10th, once the torch returns it's over.

45 and drizzle doesn't cut it for me...

we're headed to Okemo 3/20 for the weekend. Hoping it hangs on there.

The 401 hour GFS showed something yesterday so he had to wait for that....

seems like it happens every 10 yrs or so, 2001 and 2011 featured an exceptionally strong PV over the pole which kept the cold air locked up there and Alaska.

Not much cold air though even if it did flip. I think this ends up being a 2002, 2012 style spring-warm and dry with a mainly zonal flow.

I'm thinking of moving all my stuff back to the shed-takes up room in the garage and it's just collecting dust at this point.

Then the PV strengthening in Jan (after showing some signs of splitting in Dec) and becoming record strength sealed our fate with the crazy ++++AO and +NAO. In terms of sensible weather it was like 01-02 and 97-98 blended together.

January was a coast to coast torch....

Looks like the big warmth is over for awhile-colder Thurs-Mon-we'll see what happens after that

embrace the torch, it's the only torch ya got.

Like a broken record it skips back to 4/5/6. However I think 5 is not as warm come March

another day of overperforming wamth, up to 57 here. Sun angle rapidly increasing, so it adds to the warm feel

1989-90 had a very warm Jan/Feb/March-I remember lawns being cut in late March that year....this could be another spring like that one

I'd think the EPS torch has a better chance than any prolonged wintry stretch given the persistence of the poor pattern the last 2 months

crazy-the only thing I am seeing here is the ladybugs

might as well be April down here-close to 60 today and no measureable snow in over a month