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Brian5671

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  1. Brian5671
    yep have not seen a drop today despite a flash flood watch and 80% chance of storms
  2. Brian5671
    upton also comments: Then, the second round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into the start of the overnight will be ahead of a longer mid level shortwave trough and in the region with higher positive vorticity advection. There is forecast to be more 0-6 km bulk shear (near 30- 35 kt) and also focused along a warm front with central low pressure starting to move in. Instability will become elevated and will be less than during the afternoon, with models showing more of the region near 1000 to 1500 J/kg but the increased shear aloft will keep severe potential going. Overnight, convection weakens in intensity but there could be a few strong thunderstorms with heavy rain still a threat also. Coverage of convection is expected to lower as the warm front lifts farther north of the region and best convergence area lifts farther north with it. Added patchy fog for overnight into early Sunday morning with moisture laden grounds after the convection and some slight cooling as well as light winds as the low center moves slowly farther east within the forecast region.
  3. Brian5671
    HRRR says we get hit overnight
  4. Brian5671
    Flash Flood watch up for much of the area now
  5. Brian5671
    I play on a co-ed beach v-ball league and I could see lightning way to the north as well...amazing how far you can see it...probably 60 miles away
  6. Brian5671
    Exactly. Daily scare headlines won't really have much of an effect as time moves on.... certainly possible in some areas I'd bet you see some this winter....
  7. Brian5671
    couple hot days mixed in with the bag of garbage we've had. Looks like more of the same if the Euro verifies....
  8. Brian5671
    great for Jersey south-terrible here. Missed everything except the Dec storm...
  9. Brian5671
    A warmer mini version of 2009 (which was truly terrible)
  10. Brian5671
    it's a warmer version of the horrid summer of 2009.....
  11. Brian5671
    it's when it's over 70 that it feels truly awful.
  12. Brian5671
    All depends where you are-same here only in the 70's last few days and only 69 here right now. Areas north of NYC much cooler last 3 days
  13. Brian5671
    I havent watched a local newscast in years. I sometimes tune into national news here and there but by and large I agree with you. Most of the information presented is stuff you've heard about/read about earlier in the day....
  14. Brian5671
    Once the front got to our SW that was game set match
  15. Brian5671
    we had some trees go down here after the PRE and Elsa-it wasnt wind as we really had none-almost like the tree just got waterlogged and fell over.
  16. Brian5671
    kind of glad that missed us-would have been a disaster after the last week
  17. Brian5671
    front moved further south quicker than forecast. Upton noted this in their AFD that it was a possibility. Those storms may morph into an area of heavy rain that gets some of us later.
  18. Brian5671
    that was one wet month-I had something like 15 inches here for the month
  19. Brian5671
    Similar to last summer as folks head indoors during the heat of summer there. The difference is a % are vacc'd or had the virus so you won't see #'s like last summer.
  20. Brian5671
    yeah, the strict lockdowns were actually counterproductive in that regard....part of the reason Italy was so bad early on...
  21. Brian5671
    part of the reason for decreased deaths is better treatment options vs those in March of 2020. I doubt we ever go back to the death rates of March/April 2020
  22. Brian5671
    they banned me so can't. Not sure I would anyway at this point.
  23. Brian5671
    I agree with that. The media will run with this as long as they can. I'm sure the doom and gloom headlines will start soon about the "long winter ahead" blah blah blah
  24. Brian5671
    sure they can, but again, things won't be as high here as other places that have much lower vaccination rates. Sure I could be positive, but if I have no symptoms and am not tested will it ever count as a positive case? Nope.
  25. Brian5671
    locally 76 here with east winds and overcast. Front is south of me now
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