upton: Not too enthused....
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Severe tstm watch 385 issued for the entire area til 00Z. That
said, signals are mixed re severe wx potential especially across
the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT. One sfc trough has drifted
well to the south, with a more subtle pre-frontal trough
extending back into north central PA and accompanied by widely
sct convection, while the sfc cold front lags even farther
behind across upstate NY and western PA. A BL theta-E ridge
extends from southern NJ up into SE New England, and with
further daytime heating could expand westward into SE CT and
eastern Long Island this afternoon.
Convection with a leading short line segment over northern NJ
so far has not been very robust with reports of small hail at
most so far, but things may change going into this afternoon.
Latest HiResW guidance suggests tstms will become focused
along the pre-frontal trough to the west and move across the
NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon, while the latest
HRRR also forecasts tstms developing to the SW to graze NYC and
Long Island. Given drier air and lack of focusing mechanism
other than sea breezes, have questions how much activity the
lower Hudson Valley and srn CT will see.
Strong convection may be confined to eastern Long Island and
perhaps SE CT after 6 PM, with a few trailing showers/tstms
possible all the way back to NYC. As N-NW flw ensues this
evening, any remaining activity should end after sunset, with
dew point readings getting down in the more comfortable upper
50s toward daybreak on Thursday, with low temps from the upper
50s well north/west to the 60s elsewhere.