Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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never buy into an OP model past 5 days or ensembles after day 10. That's the error.
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We won't see a flash freeze though-those almost never verify-the precip will shut off and the winds and incoming dry air will dry paved surfaces before we breach freezing temp of 32
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That ridge has also been keeping us warmer-the big warm blob of water causing a positive feedback loop on the ridge as well.
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Not over but the December to remember is.
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yep grasping at straws....we're torched with the strong primary going to the lakes regardless -
Fair point but I've seen some patterns where a certain set of analogs are used and then the sensible weather ends up nothing like it...maybe that's just part of the equation it's not always a match in the end...
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And using analogs from colder times-say pre 1990-are largely worthless these days...
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You are probably at least partially right. The NW Atlantic is well above normal and has been for a couple of years-has to play into it...
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the warning signs were there from the get go....when things get continually delayed it's a big red flag it's not coming....
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sometimes you just have to laugh...who would have thought how disappointing this blocking pattern turned out?
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my house faces south and the 3 wreaths are hurting from the sun exposure and some of the warm days...shedding needles everywhere-might dump one of them on 12/26 lol
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"delayed not denied" LOL
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I grew up in Philly-we were on the northern edge of all the storms that month so we had a few inches on the ground almost the entire time
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Yep data sparse regions-that's why we often see abrupt changes as the energy gets into data rich regions
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We think models are bad today--they were horrendous back then..I remember both of those busts vividly...
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Similar to the Feb outbreak that froze Texas a couple years ago-we got a storm then but it was a mixed bag and the cold was run of the mill by the time it got here.
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it was in trouble from the get go when it kept getting pushed back-even now there's no true arctic air in the pattern...
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Ha! Not over but the evolution didn't go as planned. Maybe January will have some threats
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Cold following the storm is nothing crazy on xmas day:
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Move to Breckenridge CO no rain from Nov-April
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that's the problem it always looks good day 10-15 then it craps the bed medium term. This ended up being one of those warm -NAO patterns. Very similar to Dec 96....
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I'd be fine with this "pattern" breaking down, it has done nothing for us for the most part outside of some N and W areas
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different scenario models were OTS so the correction was NW-this is well NW now.
