Even worse here-Late Jan 2022 with the system that crushed LI and coastal Jersey-we had 7 inches here. We had snow Superbowl Sunday but roads were wet.
We're down to hoping for a fluky storm like some of our worst winters had.....this one is DOA-last night's Euro EPS going to what the GFS has was the final nail...
If the pattern doesn't flip by end of January it usually doesn't. Exceptions of course like 06-07 but for the most part winter is a dud if it's warm and snowless through Dec/Jan
I'm in the over camp as well. Sure we'll get a window end of month/early Feb but I'd bet is underwhelming and likely a cutter track due to persistence of the pattern
The Jan thread over there is a comical trainwreck...reality is setting in, it's not happening. MJO skipped right over 8 and 1....so we have a small window...maybe