Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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I think this is what has some down-this map is from 11/30 for valid date 12/13--looks like it was too fast in the end which makes sense-models always too fast for pattern changes and also too fast to break them down
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need dramamine over the last 7 days. From how many big snowstorms to maybe we'll get something before xmas
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Severe weather event on the Euro down south in about a week. Gets cold here but it's not til day 10. That's about it for a the next 7-10 days on the euro
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CMC saw Sandy a day earlier than other models so you never know....in this case there's no cold air so hard to see how it's right
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It has no other model support unfortunately
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Clippers are rare now that is for sure
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That was a much colder month-this month is a torch so far
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Mostly from 2 storms, Feb and March had a monster each month
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yeah big difference leaf drop wise around here as well.
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It's better later in the season. It will cut off the cold air supply so in Jan/Feb it at least has a better chance of trapping a decent airmass (which is what happened in 2009-10 winter). In December you're likely to trap a crap airmass and that's exactly what we are getting....
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That much is true. People discounted it b/c "it's the GFS" but have to look at all guidance. EPS was bad in 19-20 as well showing a good pattern 2nd half of winter that never came.
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amazing what a week can do-we went from big cold/snows/epic pattern to nothing in 6-7 days.
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I think that was mainly the last frigid week though? That was one heck of a cold snap-I didn't crack freezing for 2 weeks from Xmas day to the blizzard in early Jan.
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December since 2011 have been warm and snowless outside of storms in 2013 and 2020 but it warmed right back up after the those mid month storms. Can't have a bad PAC in December-we're just locking in a crappy airmass with any Atlantic block...looks warm and stormy next couple of weeks....more drought busting rains at least...
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Good post. Decembers have generally been mild/snowless going back to 2011 at least for the coastal plain. Couple mid month storms in 2013 and 2020 but right back to warmth after said storms....
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might be the first 2/3, any changes remain in fantasy land (day 10+)
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Love that trail. Yeah it's in a valley so I can see the cold air settling in...
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NYC 20" EWR 27" MMU 29" ISP 17" SWF 33"
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We may get something towards Xmas-that would be nice-but this is not what was modeled 7-10 days ago that is for sure...
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Classic -PNA there. All the cold is out west while we torch.
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Usually the kiss of death....
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Fantasy range after day 6-7 and verbatim there remains little in the way of cold air in the eastern US
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18z is warm and wet again through day 10... who cares what it shows beyond then, fantasy period.
