Krs4Lfe

A fast pacific jet will lead to a cutter/hugger and then suppressed storm track. Each year that features record marine heatwaves in north pacific just compounds this. At least we get some real cold on the backside of this storm, but like all the other winters over past 7 years, it's hard to get that to connect with the timing of the storm. So we do warm/wet, and cold/dry.

I'd expect more of the same here. Even with cold air around, we get warmups during the storms and then cold/dry afterwards. Winter is exposing it's cards here. Good track, cold air around, but warmup during the storm.

Yes once that trough moves over Alaska in the 2nd week of December, I’d expect some milder air from the pacific to flood CONUS and lead to a moderation of temps and probably a pause in the storminess. Hopefully we can cash in before that happens

Cold air is nice and all, but we’ll need some stormy weather to accompany it. Otherwise it might be warm and wet, and then cold and dry, which has been a recurring these for the last 7 years except for 2021. But hopefully, as long as things remain active across CONUS, we will get our share when the time comes.

Unfortunately, that’s just one run. But what is persistent is the trough over Alaska. Ideally you would want to see a ridge over Alaska heading into the Arctic which will force the coldest air into CONUS. Mind you, colder than normal temps don’t always equal snow. December 2022 was colder than normal too, and was quite stormy across CONUS with significant snow storms. But for the northeast; it was mainly rain. The month can be cold overall, but when it counts (when there is precipitation nearby, it might be too warm down here for snow.) That being said, the long range looks to be stormy enough across CONUS so hopefully that can coincide with the colder temps and make some snow over here.

The good news is that most models seem to want to keep a trough over the east for most of December, and that warmup in mid-December looks a bit less likely now than it was just a week ago. However, and I believe this is a big caveat, the trough over Alaska continues to show up. I don’t think that’s a good thing because that means at least some mild pacific air will infiltrate CONUS. I’m not sure what the eastern extent of that mild air penetration will be, but if there was a ridge over Alaska instead of a trough, I think we would be in better shape. That being said, it’s good to see winter storms to our west and our north. This fall was very inactive outside of one Great Lakes snowstorm on Veterans Day, and it’s good to see that has changed. I’ll always take my chances with a colder and stormier pattern. At some point, something usually breaks and we get something down here…. Eventually

Just simply not enough cold air y for this storm to produce any accumulation likely south of I-87 or I-84. High pressure is moving out too quickly, and our source region is still well above normal because of a warm fall. That being said. I’d definitely say that once you reach NJ/PA border; you’ll definitely see at least a few inches out that way. Expecting nothing but cold rain for most of us on here

That’s the real killer here because if there was more sea ice, then it definitely would’ve been colder and northern Canada, which bleeds down to the rest of Canada and is the source region for the Northeast’s cold air. With such a low arctic sea ice, it limits the amount of cold air that can be tapped into in the northeast and that ends up screwing over locations along the coast until climatology becomes cold enough later in December and January. That’s just one of the many reasons why Tuesday’s storm will likely be rain from most south of I 84 because they’re simply isn’t enough cold air around.

No reason to have thought otherwise this early in the season. Central Park still waiting for its first freeze. Almost unheard of to enter December without having a freeze. Won’t be confident in any snow depictions until we get some real cold air in the region

I think we can make the argument that the GFS model is probably a bit too amplified with this system. That being said, I think if you want to have any shot at snow or an all snow event, you would definitely have to be further inland with this one. I’m skeptical of this storm even starting out with any snow down towards I 95 and closer to the coast because the high pressure is moving out of the way pretty quickly, and there is nothing to prevent the storm from becoming amplified enough where the warm air overpowers most of the region except for those further inland

I don’t think snow is in the cards for many of us anywhere near I-95, along I-95, or east of it. You would need high pressure to be anchored to funnel cold down into an amplifying storm, and climatology isn’t in our favor this early in the season anyway. For I-84 and north, I’d say it’s definitely likely they’ll get some snow out of it. But south of there is quite difficult this early in the season, especially without much cold air to work with

Yes, absolutely it looks like most of the month will be pretty cold for much of the northern tier, from the northern Rockies through the Great Lakes and over to northern New England. But it seems like there will be a temperature battle zone across the rest of the northeast, the mid Atlantic, and the lower Midwest. Anywhere south of there looks to be pretty above average for most of December. In terms of storms and snows, it is bad to straddle the gradient in December because the average temperature for December is usually pretty conducive for snowfall, so being right around the average mark is not a bad place to be in. However, With a fast pacific jet, it becomes likelier that storms will either cut or become too suppressed. But in terms of strictly discussing temperature anomalies, our area seems to be in an average or slightly colder than average December.

It's good to see those in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes getting in on some snowstorm action. Always good to see the buildup for snow and winter weather to our west. Hopefully if we build that pack, that cold air can bleed east and try to dampen down the SER that will be rearing its ugly head by mid-December.

Yeah we've seen a big breakdown in what was going to be favorable for cold and snow. December is now looking quite mild for our area. Seems like the positive AO will link up with SER and keep us warmer than normal in December. That won't work for snowfall chances. Our best hope is that the cold and snow builds up to our west and north and cold can bleed down towards our area. But like I said yesterday, things don't look too active for much of CONUS for forseeable future.

What looks like a cold pattern becomes nearly dominated by the SER as we move up closer in time. And any stronger storms will just pump up that ridge and we’ll have what we’ve mainly had for the past 7 years (warm cutters and then dry cold). Seems set in stone at this point.

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal.

One thing that I don't like is the lack of cold and snowstorms over CONUS thus far. I remember mentioning this in December 2023 and December 2024. Even years that were not good for us (2019,2020,2023) still had way more snowstorms and cold thus far. In many years, the snowstorms began as early as October, but even if it didn't begin in October, it began in November, and there would be a few large ones and several smaller ones as we neared December. Fall 2023, Fall 2024, and Fall 2025 have been virtually devoid of snow across CONUS outside of a few mountain ranges in New England and parts of the Great Lakes (and even then, that's been pretty muted). Part of this is likely due to the warmth in Canada, as that moderates temps across the northern tier, making most of their precipitation rain thus far. Ideally, you like to see a quick start to the season in October or November across the Plains and Upper Midwest, but like Fall 2023 and Fall 2024, that has been almost entirely absent this season. Snow begets snow, and cold begets cold. When that is absent from nearly the entirety of the US, with December right around the corner, that's never a good sign imo. I raised these points last November and December as well.

But yes, the coldest we've had in northeast Queens thus far is 33 degrees last week, around 6-7 am one of those days, I believe it was Veterans Day. Used to regularly have the first freeze by mid november, but most of the 2020s, it's been pushed back to December. First frost used to be late October, now it's been pushed back a few weeks as well.

Looks like the day before Thanksgiving will be quite warm in NYC, around 60 degrees. Thanksgiving should be a little cooler, and then it seems like we go into a prolonged stretch of colder than normal temps from Black Friday through at least first 10 days of december (so around 2 weeks of below normal temps for at least the foreseeable future). Hopefully next Wednesday is last warm day for a while.

That tracks well with weeklies usually showing colder air and then correcting warmer as time gets closer.

Reached around 36 or so here in Bayside in northeast Queens. Looks to be a bit colder than that for Veterans day morning, should have widespread frost for most of us that day. Are we still slated for a big warmup after that? A few days ago, the models were looking like widespread 60s for the mid month warmup.

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.

October 2021 had gusts to 50-60 mph in NYC, further out east. 100+ mph gusts in Cape Cod. That was wild. January 2022 blizzard had gusts to 35-40 (borderline blizzard in NYC), and gusts to 80s in east Mass. These events are pretty rare but they're pretty impactful when they happen.

If we can get this pattern to last into winter, it can funnel cold air on the backside of these storms which would allow cold air to be in place for the following storm (similar to the winter storm parade of Jan-Feb 2015 and Feb 2017.) one storm moves in after the other and it creates some blocking in Atlantic Canada and North Atlantic, funnels cold air down from Canada just in time for the next storm behind that. Been a while since we’ve seen that happen.

It's interesting because usually our strongest winds come during storms, this one will have almost no precip for our entire area. I remember Jan 2022, there was a gust to 60 in NYC from that storm that was the big blizzard in great lakes and appalachia but just one inch of snow to rain here and then strong winds and dry slot. Always cool to track high winds, but very few times we actually get high wind warning level winds (60+ mph). Early March 2018 was wild, 65 mph gusts over here. I can only think of a handful of 60+ (non severe and no tropical) events here in NYC over the past decade.