Krs4Lfe

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there.

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo.

I must say, despite the unfortunate outcome for Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and all others in Melissa's path, it has been a pleasure to advance my knowledge of cyclones with you all over the past week tracking this hurricane. What a wild ride it's been!

I’ll be honest, I don’t know what it is, but ever since 2019, we’ve only had 1 good winter here in NYC and we’ve had 3 near shut outs practically. I won’t try to speculate what it is. Especially when it comes to March being snowless since 2020. My understanding of weather is better than it used to be but long term climate is still pretty niche and hard to follow along with. But whatever it is, I think we all know deep down that it’s not going to get much better. I think the “winters” we’ve been having this decade is the new normal, and most good snow seasons are a thing of the past. It’s very hard to deny it. KUs are pretty much a thing of the past and with a warmer winter, what would normally be small snow events in the past are now marginal cold rain events for most of us. It’s easy to bet on a warm and less than average snowy winter at this point.

I was surprised at how high the water levels were in Bayside Queens, along little neck bay. Surveyed them around 4:30, and then around 7-8 during low tide. Even at low tide, the water was covering about 1/4th of the jetty along Bayside marina. Very rough waters out there, some gusts to 40 mph this evening. Just rainy and breezy away from the water, but along north Queens shoreline it’s a totally different story.

I'm getting stron Joaquin vibes from this one. Except Joaquin was strong when passing through the Bahamas, but then it stalled as it passed through Bahamas and then kicked out to see, but it's moisture flooded the Carolinas big time. With Humberto nearby, I think that would act as a mechanism to tug Imelda out to sea. However, with Joaquin, there was a trough heading through the east US and Joaquin stalled over Bahamas which allowed trough to arrive in time to bring it out to sea.

And most of the time in the 2000s and 2010s we were on the right side of the line. But since 2019, only 2021 and 2022 (for some of us) have been good winters. One day, I hope we can return to having a major snowstorm. It's been since 1/29/22 for a solid foot or so of snow in NYC. I miss that.

I don't post here often, mainly only during wintertime. But this post resonates. I feel that the 2000s and 2010s being record snowy was the final push before our winters became too warm to support above average snowfall. We had the right amount of cold air and moisture, the right balance, to allow for those amazing winters. But this decade, we've been in bad spots all around except 2021 and 2022 (for some posters.) And it doesn't seem to be getting any better either. Maybe one day we'll see a good winter again.

Climate change is taking away our snow and it will only get worse from here. We're simply becoming too warm for snow most of the time. I'd expect our snow averages of around 14-15" in the 2020s to continue from here on out and become less and less over time.

I'll take just one in general. Only 13" here this year, the average should be in upper 20" range. Abysmal

Is there a place where we post about nationwide severe weather just like we have a Tropical weather sub forum ? I know each region usually posts their own threads on it but I think it would be more useful to have a subforum dedicated to it.

At the very least, there’s something to track; and looks like there will be some snow in the Midwest from it. Aside from some systems that have nickeled and dimed us, most of CONUS is really lacking in the stormy and snow department this winter. Just been too dry outside of the south and the coastlines. Pretty mundane from a snowfall perspective for most of CONUS. Boring times

I used to be somewhat skeptical not of climate change but the impacts that it has on tangible weather changes. But after seeing how the winters have gone since 2019, I fear this is the new normal. The past 2 seasons in particular were a big eye opener not necessarily because of lack of snow in this region but lack of storminess nationwide. Even 2019, 2023, 2022, winters that weren’t good for our area (or some that were even very bad), there was ample snowfall elsewhere in CONUS. I mean, in 2023, the west through Great Lakes got pounded with blizzard after blizzard and near record snow. But 2024 and 2025 winters have featured a lack of storminess across CONUS aside from a few week period in mid January to mid February. I fear this is the new normal, not just for us here in this subforum, but for the US as a whole. I hope I’m wrong

Upper 50s here in Queens. Winter is long gone. Amazing at how quickly the colder pattern flipped. Spring is fast approaching. Avoided a ratter winter here in NYC, made it to 13", making this a C- winter. I only grade winter based off snow. Average is around 28" which would be a B+. I consider a B to be mid 20" inches. B- to be low 20", C+ to be upper 10" inches, C to be mid 10" inches (if we get a few more inches in March this winter would reach mid 10" inches"). Lower 10" inches is C-, and a ratter is anything under 9" or so. In terms of cold air though, it felt amazing, I wish every winter could have temperatures like this one.

What I find interesting is that, even in years like 2019, 2022, and 2023—which were not particularly snowy for the New York City area—there were still significant storms across the country. There were also interesting storms to track, even if they didn’t impact this region. It’s worth noting that eastern New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic did experience a notable snow year in 2022, and in 2023, snowfall records were broken across the West Coast, Rocky Mountains, and parts of the Upper Midwest. Cities like Minneapolis and Bismarck had exceptional snowfall seasons, surpassing 100 inches, while some locations in the Rockies reported totals of up to 400 inches. In contrast, last winter (2024) and this winter (2025) have been largely devoid of significant storms, except for brief windows in January and early February. Unlike previous years, there have been very few large-scale storms affecting a broad swath of the country. Even by The Weather Channel’s metric for naming winter storms—where a storm is named if over 2 million people are under a winter storm warning or blizzard warning—both this year and last year have been lacking. In fact, this season has had a record-low number of named winter storms, with only 11 so far, compared to the usual 17 or 18 by this point in the season. This trend highlights how the past two winters haven’t been favorable for snowfall in most areas, aside from parts of the Deep South. I assume that, with climate change, this pattern will only become more pronounced—favoring snow accumulation in the far north and Great Lakes regions, as well as in the Deep South, but leaving much of the country in between with significantly reduced snowfall. I expect this to be the new normal.

Just checked the weather for the week coming up. 40s and 50s all week. Pack it in, it’s over. Wednesday’s snow felt great, last one until December

Unfortunately, those are probably underdone, and without any precip moving through the area, looks like mild and dry

I doubt it. The models show 40s and 50s to start March, and average temps only increase from there. Doesn't look like any signs of sustained cold coming our way, which we would probably need for some marginal snowfall

Looks like we'll be heading to 40s and 50s by end of next week. Starting off meteorological spring strong. We'll need some colder air in order to work out a marginal event down here. If we're finished with snow, NYC's amount is 16" lower than the average.

Around 0.5” here in Bayside, maybe a bit more. Cold, breezy, and light snow. Cant get better than this.

It’s always surprised me how even when other places are having a “snowless” or “mild” winter, it’s much better than NYC, sometimes in an average NYC winter. Snowfall in the 20s each year is bad when your average is 40, but look at us we can barely crack 13” in a cold winter this decade

Absolutely. Quick changeover to Spring in around 1.5 weeks. Typical of La Niña. Coldest winter in these parts since 2015 I believe. Was nice while it lasted

And with that, we say farewell to winter and on to Spring. Only colder than average temps will allow for any marginal event down to the coast. Clock is rapidly ticking, time is almost up.

That's why we haven't seen nice looking model depictions of blues over the east lately. Because they show the opposite. I give you credit Snowman, you have been spot on lately. Looking past pretty model depictions have showed the failure mode all winter long. No reason to think it'll change in March