Krs4Lfe

As to be expected the NAM is always over amped. What does it show for any potential Wednesday night?

I think the problem we will continue to see is that weather models latch onto changes in atmospheric patterns but tend to overdo them. What initially appears to be a somewhat favorable pattern for colder and snowy weather is exaggerated by the models. As time approaches, the models adjust and realize it’s just a slight change in the atmosphere. This leads to moderation in their depiction, which often results in the perception that all the models are failing. As the forecast lead time shortens, the depicted weather pattern ends up being much less significant than originally predicted. Since March 2022, we’ve often discussed how patterns look favorable, even though they haven’t produced anything substantial in our area. The only notable event was a blizzard in New England in 2022, along with several snowstorms for southern regions. Meanwhile, much of the upper Mid-Atlantic has missed out, largely due to either coastal huggers or inland cutters. These storms have been infrequent, and the past two winters were unusually warm. This winter was substantially colder by comparison, which resulted in enough suppression to bring heavy snow to the Deep South but very little to our region. Now that temperatures have moderated slightly, we’re seeing light snow events. However, the pattern still doesn’t favor anything significant. If a major storm were likely, it probably would have already materialized or been clearly depicted by the models by now. After the light snow expected tomorrow night, we may have another shot at snow Wednesday night before rain washes it away, similar to last week. After that, it appears we will either experience cutters—like the one expected this weekend—or suppression as colder weather returns. As February transitions into March, with average temperatures climbing, we will need a below-average temperature pattern to get more than a marginal snow event. Over the past six years, we’ve seen a tenuous setup where conditions have rarely struck the proper balance between suppression and the SER. As a result, storms often track too far south or are suppressed altogether, yielding little meaningful snow in our area. I don’t see this changing for the remainder of the season. After the small snow events over the next few days, I think we’re done for a while unless a bigger storm develops in about 10 days. Even then, it may likely become more of an inland event. Nature seems to have a long memory, and I doubt incremental changes in our favor will fix the current pattern until the Pacific flow slows down. This is evident in the fact that much of the nation, including last winter and this year, has seen a significant lack of snowfall. The "bowling ball" type storms that typically traverse the country have been almost nonexistent due to the increased Pacific flow. Moving forward, any large snowstorm that models depict more than five days in advance should be viewed with skepticism—it’s likely just model noise attempting to signal a slightly more conducive pattern for snow, which, based on recent years, probably won’t come to fruition.

I think everyone’s version of a good winter is different. Sure this winter has been colder than normal and definitely the coldest we’ve seen since last decade. But 10” of snow so far is almost nothing for these parts, when the average per year is generally 27-30”. It’ll take a KU just to reach average this year. And it won’t happen. Some winters just show their cards early. This winter is one of them. We won’t have to worry about it in a few weeks though, spring is coming

That's the problem with taking every pattern depiction at face value. We've seen ad nauseum how many "great looking" patterns since winter 2022. They've scantly developed and when they have, there's so many failure modes that most of the storms either go to the south or the east. The rest of them are like SWFEs or cutters. I can tell you right now, it won't pan out the way as depicted. We would've had a decent snow so far if we were meant to this winter.

I heard that same thing being said in March 2022, late Feb 2023, and Feb 2024.

The key is to realizing that we shouldn't bet against the base state. We've had some light snowfalls this winter with everything big going north or south. If we haven't had a moderate-big one by now, I'd wager that it's going to be hard to get one later on.

I am too, but all that rain on Sunday will wash it all the way, and doesn't look like any snow is coming after that any time soon.

Part of the problem are our expectations. Some of us see a big snowstorm being modeled one week out and get all excited even though we know it's very unlikely to happen. Any time a good pattern is being depicted we all get excited, but the truth is usually somewhere in between. And now we see the same pattern regression, similar to mid February 2024, where the pattern looked promising but quickly regressed. The clues can often be seen earlier in the winter. Only minor snows through early Feb, when do we pack it in and admit not much else is changing? And then we see a big cutter this weekend, which some will say is "just gravy before the GREAT pattern sets in." None of the pattern this winter has been great, and it won't be. President's day storm? We've been talking about that for the past 3 winters, and each time it never happens

As far as Wednesday night goes, it looks like there will be some light pasty snow before it turns to rain. It’s too bad but we’ll take anything we can get after the past 2 years. Those were abysmal. Last snowstorm here was January 2022, still waiting

A few ticks north is possible but we’ll see if it’s just model noise. Confluence is pressing hard on this one, so mid-Atlantic will cash in. Ratios will be good up here but it looks pretty dry, confluence doesn’t seem to be moving much . (This is in regards to Tuesday night snow)

I assume GFS holds from its earlier runs with just a coating here in the metro? Was pretty far south earlier

I think in general we’re probably running out of time for anything more than light snow Tuesday night. We would need to see a sizable shift in the models in order to see something more significant. Seems unlikely at the moment

Theoretically that would be a good idea but I don’t think it would work that way. Seems like Tuesday night keeps most snow south of here but with the primary low cutting I doubt we get much snow, if any on Thursday.

At least there’s no chance of mix or rain on Tuesday. Storm is mainly to the south but it would be all snow. Any snow on Thursday will be very brief before changeover. If 12z Euro is right, then east coat ridge after that, so let’s enjoy what we get Tuesday

Yeah you guys got into that good banding during the Friday night storm last February. 2-3” for most of NYC but south shore had around 6”. Central park around 2.” Central Park came just short or 4” for the storm earlier that week (it was Tuesday I believe), but most of NYC had a 3-5” for that one. Winter came in 2 weeks last year. There was a week in January where there were 2 separate 1.5” events (light snow). And then like 2 separate 3-5” in mid February. Central Park was still short of 10” though. At least this winter has been a bit more staggered.

Mix of sleet and snow in Bayside now. Looks like lowest amounts will be along south shore 2.5” or so and highest will be 4”+ in Bronx. I guess a general 2-4”+. Biggest event since mid February of last year. Central park under 4” streak continues

Looks like NWS Upton busted for northern zones on this one. Doubt anyone outside of interior New England has 8”. Most of Hudson valley will have up to 5” max

JFK is usually the lowest of the 3 climate sites, I expect that to be reflected by this storm as well. It’s funny because the way NYC is spread out, I feel like they are all equally accurate for their respective areas. JFK is usually indicative of south shore Queen/BK, Staten Island. Central Park is usually indicative of Manhattan and Bronx. And LaGuarida is usually indicative of the city’s largest borough, Queens. So I guess they each have some value but Central Park definitely under measures most of the time

Mainly sleet here now in Bayside, right around 3”. I wonder when Central Park took their measurement

Mainly sleet here now in Bayside, right around 3”. I wonder when Central Park took their measurement

Just about to hit 3” in Bayside, Queens, half snow and half sleet right now. It’s a pity Central Park probably has under 2”. It’s like impossible for them to reach 10” this season

If this heavy snow continued for another hour, Central Park probably would have made it to 4”. I wonder if heavy rates can stave off the sleet for a little bit, but if not then we sleet for a few more hours then it’s probably all done.

Heaviest snow always comes right before the sleet. How far south is the rain line?

Sleet is about to enter NYC, snow rates should drop off pretty rapidly. I’d expect sleet for a few hours, followed by some light ZR or light rain and then that’s it. I hope Central Park takes measurement soon, final total there should be around 3” when it’s all done

I doubt it. The heavy snow will probably last another 1-2 hours but there are breaks in the radar already showing up further to the west. When that happens we’ll sleet