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09-10 analogy

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  1. 09-10 analogy
    Avon pier NC cam https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/
  2. 09-10 analogy
    This year had been boring as hell, with haze being the headline, until late July when the severe thunderstorms started popping across the region. Now we -- or at least some of us -- have a by-god tropical system to experience. Things have turned around a bit. 1979, David, and the O's had the best record in the AL. This year, whatever it's called (if it's called anything) and the O's have the best record in the AL. Analogs! EDIT: So it's "Ophelia"? Love the Shakespearean names for tropical storms. They should just use Shakespearean names from here on in until they run out. But the guy wrote 40-odd plays so there should be a good reservoir of names to use. "Get thee to the National Mall. Why wouldst thou be a breeder of weenies? I myself am hardly indifferent but yet I could accuse me of following a glorified post-tropical system that it were better my mother had not borne me. I am very bored and therefore yearning for some interesting weather, with more offenses -- particularly at the reading of model output -- than I have thoughts to put them in ... or time to go to Cape Charles and act thereupon. "
  3. 09-10 analogy
    When were those records set? Isabel? Sandy? Or maybe Ash Wednesday if the records go back that far?
  4. 09-10 analogy
    They lose two to the Cards and lose the first two to the Rays, and everyone is getting a bit edgy. Maybe the O's are going the way of the 2011 Red Sox? Reverting to their Pythagorean? But then G-Rod plays ace, the O's take the next two from the Rays, clinch the playoffs, take two semi-slugfests from an Astros team that's still very good. Their record against teams over .500 (a more viable stat than some Fangraphs over-engineered "power rating") is the best in the league and behind only (of course) Atlanta. (What a beast that team is.) If they win the division, the O's have home field through the playoffs. What a season. They need to hold the division though. Otherwise, they're a 4 seed, even though Baltimore would still likely have the second-best record in the league. (Something wrong there.) They do have the tiebreaker against TB, and the O's seem to have the easier balance-of-the-schedule: Cleveland, the Nats, Boston. TB plays mostly Toronto and Boston. It'd be real nice to get Bautista back, too, although the O's have gone 14-8 in his absence. It just seems proper that the Orioles and Rays play for the Series slot. Two small markets, just about game they've played this year has been exciting. I'm so sick of hearing about the "legendary" Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. That's yesterday's news. Baltimore-TB: that's where the action is now. I wonder how the Yuckees and Red Sux like being 19 and 20 games out?
  5. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah I got that impression too: that there was a lot of wind energy off the surface. The sound of the wind - very loud — didn’t seemed to correspond to the swaying of the trees, which is what I made my guesstimate of 40+ from. From how loud the wind sounded it seemed like there would have been more action at the surface. Branches down, that kind of thing. Of course this could be — and probably is — all my imagination, without any validity at all.
  6. 09-10 analogy
    Potent storm rolling through right now. Couple close CG strikes, winds over 40. I'd say it's the second or third most rambunctious storm of the season.
  7. 09-10 analogy
    I remember reading or hearing somewhere that fish tanks are a thing partly because people look at them and feel more relaxed. Well, that’s my reaction to these videos. Watch them and chill. The crickets at the beginning are a nice touch.
  8. 09-10 analogy
    The growling is getting louder and more frequent, and I don't have to be looking in the direction of the storms to see the flashes now. This is actually kinda neat, if it turns out to be any type of storm at all. Kind of like hearing the Ennio Morricone score before a Metallica concert.
  9. 09-10 analogy
    Coupla decent-looking cells commuting into DC along 395; if I put on my severe wx weenie googles the northernmost looks like it's got a tiny little notch. EDIT: Naah, it really doesn't. But there is distant thunder and the occasional flash off to the SW.
  10. 09-10 analogy
    Outflowing thru the neighborhood now. Just like yesterday: big cells off to the N and W (actually they were close to MNOTW yesterday). What field (if any) on the SPC Hourly Meso Analysis would be best to approximate the location of outflow boundaries? Or is that just eyeballing radar? (And I don't have GR3 or whatever it's called; I just rely on LWX or some other free sites. Now if I lived in Huntsville ...)
  11. 09-10 analogy
    Thunder and darkening skies to the west from those cells erupting in N Arlington and across the river in MoCo. Question is, for my immediate, is whether there's anything to impart (or propagate) a little more easterly direction to these cells; if they do the SW-NE dance most of them have today, I think I'll just get grazed in upper NW.
  12. 09-10 analogy
    Purely from reading the discussions, it seems the progged shear today is a bit more than may have been anticipated earlier in the week? I'm sure there's a way to research that but I'm too lazy. We certainly have the juice available ...
  13. 09-10 analogy
    After reading Terpeat’s wonderful, albeit depressing, post, all the more reason to up the investigation into retirement property around Ithaca, New York
  14. 09-10 analogy
    Maybe this dreadful heat this week will come with something of a payoff down the road. From the Sterling AFD: Thursday and Friday should bring a gradual shift in the pattern. As noted in global ensembles, the culprit is a longwave trough pushing through the Great Lakes. A lot of details need to be resolved before more accurately portraying any convective threats. However, coming off a lengthy period of hot and humid weather often yields an unsettled pattern given notable forcing mechanisms. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances to close out the work week. While conditions remain on the hot side, temperatures do fall by around 4 to 8 degrees compared to earlier in the week. &&
  15. 09-10 analogy
    Then there's the Superstorm of 1993, which "came ashore" somewhere around there. Several people died in the associated storm surge, I guess you would call it.
  16. 09-10 analogy
    Gusty shower coming through, to cool things off. Pretty heavy rain and winds I'd say 35+.
  17. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah, today is one of the most uncomfortable days of this summer. Maybe it's because it's been so pleasant lately and my body is in autumn mode. Of course, recently autumns around here have brought whatever heat the summer left at the bus stop.
  18. 09-10 analogy
    Back from dropping my daughter off at uni, which is always kind of depressing. Some good storms to track and experience would help immensely with that.
  19. 09-10 analogy
    San Diego may finally get some interesting weather for the first time in decades.
  20. 09-10 analogy
    I'm going there as soon as possible. Your photos have convinced me!
  21. 09-10 analogy
    Our luck ran out. Just as we were going out the door of the hotel, we read the concert was cancelled due to Springsteen having some kind of health issue. Rumor is he's got the newest Covid variant. They'll honor the tickets later when he gets better and can reschedule but whether our daughter will be able to make it, being back at uni ... who knows? So we're out the gas and tolls, and the hotel room, since we turned around and drove home last night. I would have stayed to luxuriate -- or what I consider to be luxuriating -- in the hotel, but I was outvoted by my wife and daughter, both of whom were adamant about coming home. What a day: the original hotel we'd booked -- a Hampton Inn near the airport -- was a smelly dump, so we changed hotels (at least we got the money back for the first one). Checked into the new, much nicer place, and then found out about the cancellation. Disappointed, but at least we didn't fly into Philly to see him like some couple from Europe we were talking to at a restaurant near Citizens Bank Park.
  22. 09-10 analogy
    I remember getting one on my phone when the small tornado went through N Arlington/Foggy Bottom a while back. It woke me up
  23. 09-10 analogy
    Best thing about today's storm is I got to hear the EAS beeps on WTOP as I was driving home.
  24. 09-10 analogy
    I don't think there were winds anything like that in upper NW but I was inside when the storm hit so didn't see the initial gust. But as (the lack of) a telltale sign, very little tree debris/leaves down -- much less branches -- on the way home thru my neighborhood. Torrential rain though. That's at least the second time recently DCA has met/exceeded severe wind criteria. Pretty sure they did at least on 7.29; maybe some other date as well?
  25. 09-10 analogy
    We're really lucking out on Wednesday night, when the three of us are going to see Springsteen in Philly as kind a send-away to our daughter (and as a birthday present to me) before she goes back to uni week after next. Never been to a big concert with her. Hope she likes it; she wants to go and I'm not the Bruce fan I was when I was younger. Mostly clear temps falling through the 70s. Thank goodness we're (and he and his band, all of whom are ... seasoned performers, shall we say) not dealing with heat advisories and EHWs like they are in the NW and SE.
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