09-10 analogy

There must have been some cannonading going by somewhere close a few hours ago, but only flickers and some low rolls in Tenleytown. But like another poster noted, it's still nice to be woken up by a thunderstorm, even if you're being fringed, in the middle of the night. Curious thing is, I slept right through a big storm we had earlier this year, maybe in April.

This is possibly the worst outbreak for SC since 1984?

Miss north. A few bursts of rain, distant thunder, but more or less noneventful in up nw. Probably less impact from this system in Tenleytown than from anywhere in a crescent from E TX to NJ.

SPC Meso still shows a pocket of 1000-1500 SBCAPE south and west of DC. Maybe something for the second or third line to work with?

Mostly overcast in upper NW. Maybe that little eruption about to cross the Potomac and ride the DC/MONTCO border will make things exciting around here. EDIT: And just like that, a downpour starts.

Don't normally see too many PDS TOR soundings around here. EDIT: Just for the doing of it, looked up some parameters just prior to La Plata: 0-1 km SRH: 253 m2 s-2 0-3 km SRH: 243 m2 s-2 0-1 km bulk shear: 32 kt 0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt Taken from: http://www.tornadohead.com/storhodos.htm

I'm just south of all that and I slept right through it. That's rare; I'm a light sleeper. There are some trees down in AU Park so it must have been pretty rambunctious IMBY.

Quite the squall coming through. Don't think it's as potent as it is up MOCO way however.

Will never forget the smell of gasoline fumes from all the cars stuck in traffic when I walked down the major arterials. Plus a good bit of thundersnow with that one

0.5” as of 415

My side street beginning to whiten up a bit. I was wrong but usually am in these matters.

Everything but streets and sidewalks covering up nicely.

Here they are. Waiting for my kid in my car at the bus stop and it’s mod to heavy snow all around

Mixy now. But where be these rumored “fatties” I hear tell of? The flakes I’m seeing are all on the South Beach Diet or something. And even those are sparse now.

The race between the changeover and back edge does not lend confidence to seeing anything much accumulate around T-town.

Still mostly -RN in up nw, a flake mixing in but rarely.

Grass and cars covering up in upper NW but hearing pinging now and then. The old SN/IP go-between.

A car top or two semi-caved in upper NW. A little paste on a leaf here and there. The quintessential "trace."

If I see one flake stick to a grassy surface for more than 30 seconds, I'll consider this an overperformer. Not that I'll be looking that conscientiously.

I'd love to see a replay of that. Even though DC was on the warm side ... but from what I've read, there really wasn't a consistently "warm" side because of the low's crazy movement. Snowed in Pittsburgh while it rained in Buffalo. Right up there with 1993 as an extreme event. Some legit cold out there this morning.

Yep flurs in upper nw as well. Pretty sky as well

Nice fall day for the parade on Saturday.

FWIW, SPC meso analysis has supercell composite of 8 -12.

Streets have caved in that they're actually wet this early morning.

That's probably the January 2005 snowstorm. One of the great screwjobs in DC history. Probably a Miller B deal: NYC and Philly both got a foot, NE/Boston got a historic monster, Baltimore may have eked out a few inches. DC got squat; textbook middle finger event around here. I'll take the 99-00 analog. Great last part of January.. Just looked up the 2004-5 season. DCA got 12.5". There have been much worse. But that doesn't begin to alleviate the pain of the kind of shafting Jan 21-22 2005 delivered. 99-00 delivered 15.4, not much more than 04-05, but it included the Big Honking Surprise of Jan 25, which to me boosts my estimation of that winter higher than the seasonal total would warrant.