09-10 analogy

The Battle of the Pelanor Fields was so well done, and my wife and I were sitting so close (at the uptown on Conn. Ave.) that I got dizzy. I’ll never forget Legolam (kudos to anyone getting the reference) sliding down the oliphant’s trunk shooting arrows.

Very dark out, here comes the gust front, getting windy, absolutely no T/L so far, air has that summertime pre-T/storm "smell" though. Gusty winds maybe 40 to 45, some very small hail mixed in I believe but I'm just looking out the window so not sure. Too lazy to ascertain. There's some thunder! But not earth-shattering. No lightning. Fairly heavy rain. The STS warning mentioned American University, which is a Ichiro throw from where I live, and certainly no 60 MPH gusts here.

Back in the mid 2010s I was at OPACY and there was CG all over the place, you could see it from the seats. They took their time stopping the game. I thought it was a bit irresponsible but what do I know? As far as today, the further S/E of the corridor you are, the better chances of seeing something exciting, I suppose. Just give me a light and sound show, and I'm good. Don't need hail.

Stressful night for ATCs I'm sure. Not to mention pilots, flight attendants, passengers ....

Winds without thunder, lightning, rain, and mean looking skies ... it's just not the same. That's just me, and I have to live with me.

Roaring here, and whistling too. No power flickering, though.

You just don't see those kind of radar presentations in Delaware that often. I don't think Delaware has had anything stronger than an (E)F2 for a while. Last tornado fatality in Delaware was in 1983, I believe. It's my home state, so ...

Some pretty impressive gusts ongoing in up nw. I'd say they're in the 50 MPH vicinity. Thought I heard a little thunder too about a half hour ago.

With all the talk about discrete supercells and tornadoes, the third-largest metro in the nation is about to get hammered with potentially 90 mph winds. That's going to create a lot of havoc and could be one of the biggest stories of this event. I wonder if Lake Michigan, which I gather is still cool, will mitigate it. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LOT&wwa=severe thunderstorm warning BTW, SPC dropped the High Risk for the northern part -- I guess because it seems like it's lining out -- but maintains the high risk over northern MS and adjacent slices of east-central AR and sw TN.

I think the gamblers in Tunica need to be placing their bets in basements, just like the old days when there wasn't state-sponsored gambling and it was all run by the Mob in deep, dark places.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0414.html Mesoscale Discussion 0414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...central Arkansas...far northwestern Mississippi...and far Southeastern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 94... Valid 312334Z - 010030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat increasing over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells across east central Arkansas near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders have shown signs of better organization over the last hour. The southern of the two cells has a history of large hail up to 1.75". These supercells are tracking northeastward rapidly around 40-50 mph into a very favorable environment near and south of the Memphis metro. The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) shows observed 0-1km SRH around 530 m2/s2. 0-3 km SRH is observed at around 700 m2/s2. You gotta be kidding me.

Bird is not impressed. EDIT: It could just be a carving, though?

11 tornado warnings from Texas to Iowa. Wow.

Ryan Hall is pretty good, keeping track of all these storms. EDIT: Here's the link to his YT site, if anyone's interested (everyone prolly has it bookmarked already ...): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFJmw4xyG9c

80/60 tornado probs on that Mississippi watch box. What they don’t need. The other night was 90/70.

Rolling Fork’s town water tower got pulled up out of the ground and snapped. Like the proverbial piece of straw. Some hardwood trees completely debarked. Lots of comparisons I’m reading this morning to Mayfield, total path length excepted. Seems like an EF4 candidate for sure. Edit: water tower about 1:20 into the posted drone footage. Seems to be some question as to how well it was anchored. Ratings aside, just devastating.

Mid Atlantic snow lovers and the 2022-3 winter walked into a bar. Winter 2022-3 walked out. #verybadjokes

I’m just hoping for the Ring of Fire starting in May with QLCSs coming through every third day. A new base state like that for our heretofore generally lackluster severe season …. Yeah I could play at that table. Even if it meant the occasional HI of 105 or so

Some of the best times in my life was when my wife and I went hiking in the Sierras. In August and September. I’m trying to imagine how some of the places where we hiked like Mount Dana in Yosemite, which is about 13k, are like now. It’s usually free of snow by July or August, . I wonder if that’ll be the case this year.

Yeah we got about 12-13" in Tenleytown for that storm. Real good back end action at dusk, IIRC. We were up in Manhattan around New Year's in 2014 and got around 7-8", mostly overnight. Two poor ladies from London had somehow gotten lost; I helped them to get back to their hotel, they were not dressed for the occasion. A bitterly cold airmass followed. (What a winter NYC had that year.) Took our daughter to the top of the Empire State Building the next day. We could see forever with that clear air mass but, damn, it was cold. The same daughter who's now up in Central NY at college enjoying 8" snows every other week and lived through a -20 below night in a dorm where the heating was ... suboptimal.

Speaking of things the Mid-Atlantic does well ... I read on another forum that yesterday the High Wind Warning for the Mid-South -- ground central for EF4s and 5s these days -- was only the second one that region has had in March since 2006. We've had ... what? dozens of those in March, it seems? ... in that time.

Me too. Up early working and heard some rumbling. I thought, trucks don't come by at this hour. Haven't seen any lightning flashes yet, however.

Well done!

Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable.

Snowing enough for cars to have wipers on.