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09-10 analogy

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  1. 09-10 analogy
    Actually that little cell fell apart like a Dollar General t-shirt in the heavy duty wash cycle. Maybe the big line will give us some excitement after all.
  2. 09-10 analogy
    Ehh, it'll prolly just ruin the main segment for the immediate DC metro. ETA: Anyhoo, it got dark here suddenly with some dollops of rain and low thunder. Actually now a downpour, but nothing else. Atmospheric premature ejac .... oh, this is a family website, so I'll stop there. But I think that's what may be happening DC immediate. ETA: I'm sure once this passes DC it'll put down wedges all the way to the Patapsco River.
  3. 09-10 analogy
    It's kind of depressing to read LWX: "this only happens a couple of times a decade." If we can't get decent widespread moderate/significant snow events around here anymore, it'd be nice if we could replace that with one or two robust QLCSs per year, like today.
  4. 09-10 analogy
    Looks like the peak of that bow may flush hit IAD. Interesting to see what their report will be.
  5. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah it's now SVR TS warned and looks to pass just to the north of Charlottesville. ETA: sorry, you just posted essentially the same thing.
  6. 09-10 analogy
    I have to admit, I haven't been this weenied out pre-event, I think, since 2016. Probably should dial it back a bit.
  7. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah I've been looking for that. I don't see any mid-level clouds right now, although I'm in the city and so visibility is limited. Admittedly, the low-level cumulus are moving pretty quickly to the N/NW. I remember 2002, the day of the LaPlata (E?)F4, seeing in Rock Creek Park low-level and mid-level clouds moving pretty quickly in different directions. This was a couple of hours before the LaPlata supercell took off. That memory (I was running there at the time) has stuck with me for some reason.
  8. 09-10 analogy
    For some reason, this reminds me of a play-by-play at a golf tournament.
  9. 09-10 analogy
    "the vertical shear is off the charts." That's the summertime equivalent of "robust frontogenesis will lead to rates of 2-3"/hour."
  10. 09-10 analogy
    Is that hodo the "wavy" kind that was mentioned in an SPC/LWX AFD (I forget which office) a day or so ago?
  11. 09-10 analogy
    How much of that hype do you think can be attributed to last week's storms?
  12. 09-10 analogy
    Believe me, when I saw that tree that had pancaked a (fortunately, parked) car from last week's downburst in DC ... well, I've seen tons of pictures of that kind of thing, but to see it first-hand, it brings home how dangerous 70-80+ straight-line winds can be in areas with lots of big old elm and oak trees. Bit of a quandary, because I want to park under a big-canopy tree to protect my car somewhat from hail, but that same tree might demolish my car. (No garage at my house, most people on my street have one at the back of their property, but I'm right next to a corner lot and the way our neighborhood is laid out, corner lots and those adjacent don't have garages that back onto alleys.)
  13. 09-10 analogy
    Then there's 1944, when a couple of F4 tornadoes hopped over ridges, evidently, like I'd hop into a pool.
  14. 09-10 analogy
    Who’s up for a wind-driven PDS watch today?
  15. 09-10 analogy
    I always like second rounds. Somewhat lost in the excitement, maybe, but we haven’t had too many days this summer with HIs over 100, as mentioned in the AFD.
  16. 09-10 analogy
    That always seems to be a threat. Still high clouds here; I’m beginning to temper expectations for my back yard. Still think it’ll be a big day for MA overall
  17. 09-10 analogy
    Last weekend’s two wind events aside, it’s been a pretty boring stretch of weather around here; we’ve earned some excitement.
  18. 09-10 analogy
    This is a mt. fort Reno day for sure. May need to take a folding chair there.
  19. 09-10 analogy
    Now let's put the beatdown on Houston and make a statement to the rest of the AL: "We're your daddy now." We're missing Mr. Kate Upton this series, evidently. But that's OK. We pushed him around in 2014 and he's 9 years older now. It's been a long time since I could feel cocky about being an Orioles fan. Should probably stop, though. Bad karma. That said, 30-20 the rest of the way gets us to 100 winds. That's a .600 winning percentage. Last time the O's won 100? (Trivia, see answer below.) They've played .622 so far. There's a lot of mediocrity in their schedule to come: Cardinals, Diamondbacks (who were good earlier), Cleveland. Some clunkers like the White Sox and A's; I hope the O's don't "play down" to their level. Four with TB in mid-September are going to be tough games and I think may decide the division title and home field advantage in the playoffs. Padres, Mariners, and (7) Boston could be tough as well. Trivia answer: 1980.
  20. 09-10 analogy
    I've been wanting to find a resource that could tell me "when was the last time XXX had a ZZZ," so thanks! Now I just have to figure out how to negotiate my way through all that data. I knew the IEM page has archived AFDs and many other NWS products, but I didn't know it could drill down even deeper.
  21. 09-10 analogy
    I think they expanded the 5% TOR risk, and expanded the wind risks eastward as well.
  22. 09-10 analogy
    If I'm reading Sterling's discussion correctly, if the storms hold off until later Monday afternoon/evening, the LLJ would give a boost to mesocyclone development. Is this akin to what I often read in discussions of Dixie tornado threats, which often mention a nighttime tornado threat being heightened by a nocturnal LLJ? And, no, I'm not comparing tomorrow to Dixie outbreaks. There is, however, this August event: https://michigan-weather-center.org/the-tornado-and-the-burning-of-washington-august-25-1814#:~:text=The tornado tore through the,of homes and scattered about.
  23. 09-10 analogy
    That's beautiful. Always wanted to hike in the Canadian Rockies.
  24. 09-10 analogy
    Saw this stat on a Tweetstream called "Orioles Fans Say": "Stat of the Day - The Baltimore Orioles have played 42 straight games versus teams currently over .500. The Orioles have a combined record of 25-17 (.595) over that stretch, which would equate to a 96 win pace over 162 games." That's really amazing. This team is the best O's squad since 1997, I believe. Better than 2014. And now they're beginning to crush the opposition, so those "But their Pythagorean!" mopesters will hopefully be silenced soon.
  25. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah, it's a conundrum. It's a rush seeing the actual storm but after walking around Woodley Park today, I was thankful I didn't have to deal with a 100 year old oak tree wrenched from the ground and lying in my yard, much less on my house.
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